[GDT] Flames vs. Stars, 8 pm, SN1

[sureLoss]

Bobyn @bobynboy
So Jiri Hudler has two dogs and they wear Johnny and Mony jerseys and this makes them the best line ever

[getbak]

That's hilarious.

[CaptainYooh]

Those are my socks, Hudler!

[Toonage]

That pic on the bottom right...thats too funny. The quintessential "why have you done this to us??" look.

[heep223]

^ that is just...amazing

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by heep223

Their season is not on the line man. It is done. And they know it.

Dallas is not done. 6 points behind the Flames with 2 head to heads this week.

I know, they are chasing Winnipeg. But the only way to catch the Jets is to catch the Flames first.

Dallas is 8-2 in their last 10. The Flames need to bring their A game because I guarantee nobody in the Dallas locker room thinks that they are done.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by heep223

Their season is not on the line man. It is done. And they know it.

While they've all but been eliminated from the playoffs, I can guarantee that Ruff is showing them the schedule and noting they play the Flames twice this week. In a scenario where they win both it's essentially 86 to 84 with 7 games undetermined and the hope of a Winnipeg collapse. This is a team that has gone 8-2, they haven't given up yet. They certainly wont give up against one of the playoff teams they could theoretically catch.

[Henry Fool]

Scary game. Thinking back, there's something about the Flames-Dallas match-up that makes me nervous, and now that people have pointed out their recent record, I'm slightly worried.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

Dallas is not done. 6 points behind the Flames with 2 head to heads this week.

I know, they are chasing Winnipeg. But the only way to catch the Jets is to catch the Flames first.

Dallas is 8-2 in their last 10. The Flames need to bring their A game because I guarantee nobody in the Dallas locker room thinks that they are done.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

While they've all but been eliminated from the playoffs, I can guarantee that Ruff is showing them the schedule and noting they play the Flames twice this week. In a scenario where they win both it's essentially 86 to 84 with 7 games undetermined and the hope of a Winnipeg collapse. This is a team that has gone 8-2, they haven't given up yet. They certainly wont give up against one of the playoff teams they could theoretically catch.

Sure they could catch the Flames. But that would mean both teams missing the playoffs. The Stars are done. Sportsclubstats runs literally millions of scenarios for the playoff stretch, and the model found 1 single lone scenario in which the stars sneak into the 2nd wild card spot.

PS that doesn't mean that I'm not nervous about this game or that they're going to fold. Just saying, their season is over.

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

Scary game. Thinking back, there's something about the Flames-Dallas match-up that makes me nervous, and now that people have pointed out their recent record, I'm slightly worried.

Only thing you need to worry about is your blood pressure, old man. Keep those life saving pills close and enjoy the ride.

[CsInMyBlood]

This will be as hard a game for the Flames to win as they've had all season.

These are the games you love as a fan.

Go Flames Go!!!

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

Only thing you need to worry about is your blood pressure, old man. Keep those life saving pills close and enjoy the ride.

Once you get to my age, the Ribeiro flashbacks are no joke.

[northcrunk]

Dallas should be exploitable with Daly out. He is probably their most solid DFD.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by northcrunk

Dallas should be exploitable with Daly out. He is probably their most solid DFD.

You sure about that? I always felt Daley was their best OFD (maybe behind Klingberg now) and has pretty bad defense.

EDIT: Pretty sure I am wrong.

[hwy19man]

This is a good read about tonight's Stars-Flames game.

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/flames-continue-playoff-push-vs-stars-1.3008693

[getbak]

Boring Sean Monahan ‏@boringmonahan

I asked Jiri if he'll score first tonight and he said no, you will. I said no you will and he said no you will and I said maybe Johnny will.

Ha ha!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by heep223

Sure they could catch the Flames. But that would mean both teams missing the playoffs. The Stars are done. Sportsclubstats runs literally millions of scenarios for the playoff stretch, and the model found 1 single lone scenario in which the stars sneak into the 2nd wild card spot.

PS that doesn't mean that I'm not nervous about this game or that they're going to fold. Just saying, their season is over.

To make the playoffs, they need to pass the Jets and one of the Kings or the Flames. The likely of that happening is extremely unlikely, but not impossible. For all intents and purposes their season has been done for quite some time, it hasn't stopped them from playing their best hockey all season. The only team they have some control over is the Flames as they play them twice, of course Ruff is going to be talking about there still being some hope but they need to beat Calgary tonight.

Originally Posted by heep223

Sportsclubstats runs literally millions of scenarios for the playoff stretch, and the model found 1 single lone scenario in which the stars sneak into the 2nd wild card spot.

Not entirely sure what you mean by this. If they go 9-0, unlikely but possible, odds are they make the playoffs. 7-1-1 and they still got a 20% chance.

Pretty much this is Dallas:

[polak]

Just picked up some tickets. Probably my last game of the season!

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Not entirely sure what you mean by this. If they go 9-0, unlikely but possible, odds are they make the playoffs. 7-1-1 and they still got a 20% chance.

Oh, I was referencing the website sportsclubstats.com: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html . If you look at their model and the millions of simulations it runs, it came up with only one scenario that the Stars make the playoffs.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

To make the playoffs, they need to pass the Jets and one of the Kings or the Flames. The likely of that happening is extremely unlikely, but not impossible. For all intents and purposes their season has been done for quite some time, it hasn't stopped them from playing their best hockey all season. The only team they have some control over is the Flames as they play them twice, of course Ruff is going to be talking about there still being some hope but they need to beat Calgary tonight.

Records required to get to 96 points:

Minnesota: 3-5-1 (9 games left)
Vancouver: 4-6-0 (10 games left)
Winnipeg: 4-5-0 (9 games left)
Calgary: 5-4-0 (9 games left)
Los Angeles: 6-4-0 (10 games left)
Dallas: 8-1-0 (9 games left)

Dallas has to go 8-1-0 to get to 96 points. In addition, they are fighting for the wild card spots which brings the Pacific teams in to the race (no chance at division with Hawks 14 points ahead). So they need to go 8-1 and (not or) they need 3 of the teams above them to be worse than their records above, which are all very achievable.

Sure there's a chance. But it's so infinitesimal that's it's not really a chance. They are done.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by heep223

Oh, I was referencing the website sportsclubstats.com: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html . If you look at their model and the millions of simulations it runs, it came up with only one scenario that the Stars make the playoffs.



Records required to get to 96 points:

Minnesota: 3-5-1 (9 games left)
Vancouver: 4-6-0 (10 games left)
Winnipeg: 4-5-0 (9 games left)
Calgary: 5-4-0 (9 games left)
Los Angeles: 6-4-0 (10 games left)
Dallas: 8-1-0 (9 games left)

Dallas has to go 8-1-0 to get to 96 points. In addition, they are fighting for the wild card spots which brings the Pacific teams in to the race (no chance at division with Hawks 14 points ahead). So they need to go 8-1 and (not or) they need 3 of the teams above them to be worse than their records above, which are all very achievable.

Sure there's a chance. But it's so infinitesimal that's it's not really a chance. They are done.

Sportsclubstats is giving them a 1% chance, which is not quite the same as finding one scenario in millions of runs. Which is fine and dandy but that 1% chance takes into account of their entire season, over the last 10 games they are 8-2-0. A pace like that over the next 7-1-1 or so, would put them in at least a decent chance to claim a playoff spot.

They don't need to beat all 3 teams, only Winnipeg and one of Los Angeles or Calgary. If they beat Winnipeg and Los Angeles, for example, but are below Calgary, Calgary gets third in the Pacific and Dallas would claim the Wildcard spot. So what they really need is a Winnipeg collapse, a strong record and probably to beat Calgary in their 2 games they have left. It's unlikely, but it's not impossible.

Like I said, for all intents and purposes their season is done, the chances of them making the playoffs are low. I disagree with you in saying that they know it's done. They will know it's done if they lose tonight. Until then, they're taking it one game at a time and praying.