Article: How the Calgary Flames are Laughing at Advanced Stats

[MissTeeks]

And here come Ryan Lambert with the dig:

“@DownGoesBrown: New post: The Flames are defying the numbers, and we know how this movie ends. So why does this time feel different?

“@twolinepass: @DownGoesBrown it doesn't sean”

[Property Manager DB]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

And almost very bottom in shots for. The bigger problem is that don't generate much

Quality not Quantity is more important in my opinion

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Wow, you went to look up a thread that was last posted in 2013 to mock another poster, and you joined in Feb 2015.......Bold Stuff, Hat Tip.

Huh? I didn't look up any old threads... if there was a thread about his BS points system I haven't read it (thank God for that). He's talked about it several times in other threads.

[Igster]

Not interested in talking about advanced stats anymore or corsi, or whatever. Just a fun article to read. Like the article, let's just enjoy the ride folks and hope it continues into the playoffs. Flames are a helluva' fun team to ride along with.

[PeteMoss]

If the Flames finish with 97 points and miss the playoffs I'm sure all the advanced stats guys will come flying out of the woodwork with 'I told you so's'.

Like the article says they've already 'beaten' the advanced stats this year. There shouldn't be any gloating if they miss the playoffs.

[Red John]

The writer hits the nail on the head, but only does so in one obscure paragraph and then doesn't come back to this thought.

Possession stats treat all shots as equal, so in theory, a team with the right talent could play a style that relied on shot quality to buck the percentages. Did you ever think of that, stat guys?

Bingo. Anyone who watches the Flames regularly can see how they play. Their forwards play at the far blueline waiting for the long stretch pass more than any other team in the NHL. This either creates a rush situation which the Flames score a TON of goals off, or the forwards simply tip the puck in the zone and give chase.

What this means is the Flames actually have the puck very little in a game. It's on and off their sticks in a flash. But their huge forecheck creates turnovers and grade-A chances from the slot, and their odd-man rushes of course create high percentage chances.

It's a tough way to play and this is why other teams don't do it. It requires defensemen who can make home run passes under heavy pressure without puck support, it requires skilled forwards who need to make those few 10-bell chances count, and it requires a tenacious, forechecking team that doggedly can wear the other team down and force mistakes.

This all tells you 2 things:

1) It's amazing how pathetic "advanced" stats actually are. They aren't advanced at all. Measuring all shot attempts as equal? Could you imagine a basketball team that decided that half-court heaves have the same odds as going in as a layup under the hoop? Laughable.

2) You can instantly tell which writers actually watch the Flames and which ones just read box scores. Anyone who watches this team should find it obvious why they skew the stats. Which is why it's hard to respect idiots like Ryan Lambert and Thomas Drance because it's obvious they don't watch what they write about. Either that or they don't understand what they watch which is even more damning.

[sec304]

great article, thanks for sharing!

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Red John

The writer hits the nail on the head, but only does so in one obscure paragraph and then doesn't come back to this thought.



Bingo. Anyone who watches the Flames regularly can see how they play. Their forwards play at the far blueline waiting for the long stretch pass more than any other team in the NHL. This either creates a rush situation which the Flames score a TON of goals off, or the forwards simply tip the puck in the zone and give chase.

What this means is the Flames actually have the puck very little in a game. It's on and off their sticks in a flash. But their huge forecheck creates turnovers and grade-A chances from the slot, and their odd-man rushes of course create high percentage chances.

It's a tough way to play and this is why other teams don't do it. It requires defensemen who can make home run passes under heavy pressure without puck support, it requires skilled forwards who need to make those few 10-bell chances count, and it requires a tenacious, forechecking team that doggedly can wear the other team down and force mistakes.

This all tells you 2 things:

1) It's amazing how pathetic "advanced" stats actually are. They aren't advanced at all. Measuring all shot attempts as equal? Could you imagine a basketball team that decided that half-court heaves have the same odds as going in as a layup under the hoop? Laughable.

2) You can instantly tell which writers actually watch the Flames and which ones just read box scores. Anyone who watches this team should find it obvious why they skew the stats. Which is why it's hard to respect idiots like Ryan Lambert and Thomas Drance because it's obvious they don't watch what they write about. Either that or they don't understand what they watch which is even more damning.

Should probably look at the footnote at the end of that paragraph.

[united]

Originally Posted by Red John

The writer hits the nail on the head, but only does so in one obscure paragraph and then doesn't come back to this thought.

You know that was his equivalent of CP's green text and not a serious comment, right?

[GranteedEV]

The thought on losing the possession battle is that you're "playing with fire" letting the other team stay in your zone.

But it's also true that you're equally playing with fire setting in your opponents' zone all game and then letting them leak out on a 3 on 1 on a single play and getting burnt.

That is how the Jets seemed to play last night. I don't watch them much but I'm willing to guess:

- advanced stats people think the Jets are a top 5 team in the league
- and they're wrong

Good teams are good teams. You can see it from what you see, not from the possession stats. The Blues are a damn good team, I don't know what their possession stats look like but when you're in their zone they don't give you anything and when they're in your zone they don't depend on just sitting there all game.

You'll never see me say the Kings are not a good team. But they're not a good team only because of possession.

[Inglewood Jack]

great to see McIndoe use his considerable platform to remind everyone that sports is first and foremost about entertainment and drama. the Flames are loved again for the same reasons that they were embraced in 2004; and no Cinderella since then has quite replicated the emotional formula.

contrary to how it might seem, Lambert also harbors fandom and emotional investment. he absolutely despises the Flames and wants to see them fail, and clumsily wields stats as his weapon against anyone who would take joy out of watching their favorite team.

advanced stat peeps, keep plugging away and refining that analysis. nobody will mind as long as you don't try to trample on fan enjoyment. in the end, nobody ever grew up and fell in love with their team because they had good Corsi.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Should probably look at the footnote at the end of that paragraph.

But the dozens of articles that have been written on that point fail to line up with his preconceived notions!

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

- advanced stats people think the Jets are a top 5 team in the league
- and they're wrong

No, you're wrong. They're 8th in ES corsi and 10th in ES fenwick. So even if you thought this was all that matters (and no one does), you would not think the Jets are a top 5 team in the league.

[_Q_]

It would actually be fun to see a video of Hartley, Treliving and Burke physically pointing and laughing at a corsi close 5v5 (or whatever it's called) spreadsheet.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

No, you're wrong. They're 8th in ES corsi and 10th in ES fenwick. So even if you thought this was all that matters (and no one does), you would not think the Jets are a top 5 team in the league.

No, they aren't top 5 to the 'eye test' either, But they are a really good team that has been hurt by bad goaltending at times. They are good. Top 10 good

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by _Q_

It would actually be fun to see a video of Hartley, Treliving and Burke physically pointing and laughing at a corsi close 5v5 (or whatever it's called) spreadsheet.

If you think those three scoff at analytics, you haven't been paying attention.

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

If you think those three scoff at analytics, you haven't been paying attention.

I'm fairly sure most teams analytics and advanced stats folks go past simply counting shot attempts.

[Tinordi]

McIndoe is a big advanced stats guy.

He was on a panel saying that the stats guys have basically won and that anyone in management who cares about their job in the NHL is now a stats guy.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

No, you're wrong. They're 8th in ES corsi and 10th in ES fenwick. So even if you thought this was all that matters (and no one does), you would not think the Jets are a top 5 team in the league.

Fair enough, I didn't bother to look up their possession stats.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Le Golie

I like the article. The part that I don't agree with is the notion that the Flames are lacking talent and rely solely on hard work. I think that people who have watched the team closely would agree that our talent level is getting quite good. Top to bottom, there is far more hockey skill on this edition of the Flames than anytime in the recent past. The best part is that our talented players are young, so they also play a hungry, hard working style.

Yup.

I absolutely love how the Flames break out of their own zone.