Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[PeteMoss]

The chart is tearing CP apart!

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The chart is tearing CP apart!

We need a thread to complain about the chart.
Because I want to complain about the chart.
The maths don't sit well with me. It's no big deal, but if I'm to accept the methodology as sound....

Both the Kings and Flames won.
This same sequence, repeated, moves the Flames closer and closer as Nd closer to clinching... yet the Kings chances of making playoffs increased more than the Flames. This should not happen. The Flames chances should have increased more, no?
Models should reflect actual events. I don't see how this does that well.

Am I missing something? Not understanding something thinking the Flames chances gave to have risen more?

[heep223]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Am I missing something? Not understanding something thinking the Flames chances gave to have risen more?

Because shot attempts!

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Am I missing something? Not understanding something thinking the Flames chances gave to have risen more?

The Flames winning last night doesn't make their chances significantly better as they simply kept pace. It's the losses that make for significant changes. The race is all about who blinks first as it's expected that the majority of the teams in the race will win their games such as last night.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

We need a thread to complain about the chart.
Because I want to complain about the chart.
The maths don't sit well with me. It's no big deal, but if I'm to accept the methodology as sound....

Both the Kings and Flames won.
This same sequence, repeated, moves the Flames closer and closer as Nd closer to clinching... yet the Kings chances of making playoffs increased more than the Flames. This should not happen. The Flames chances should have increased more, no?
Models should reflect actual events. I don't see how this does that well.

Am I missing something? Not understanding something thinking the Flames chances gave to have risen more?

I don't believe the chart has anything to do with clinching or anything like that. Correct me if I am wrong but all it does is try and predict who is most likely to make playoffs based off their Corsi and Fenwick. I don't think it takes into consideration games left, strength of schedule, and stuff like that.

Again, it's just another tool to use along with all the other tools available to us. It is not the be-all-end-all, or the prognosticator of prognosticators.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The Flames winning last night doesn't make their chances significantly better as they simply kept pace. It's the losses that make for significant changes. The race is all about who blinks first as it's expected that the majority of the teams in the race will win their games such as last night.

Believe he's saying that the Flames odds should have increased more than the Kings just because they now have one less game to make up the difference.

[EldrickOnIce]

^Yes. Also, for example, to me the math should work like it did at spirtsclubstats.
The Kings have a much lower chance of making the playoffs there, so with their win, their odds increased more than the Flames did (who have a much higher probability there).
That math seems correct to me. That math at hockeystats doesn't, just for those reasons.
So if the model doesn't reflect what has occurred, it seems questionable.
Anyway... I don't want to beat this any more. It's a math/stats question, not a hockey/corsi methodology question.

[mrkajz44]

Sportsclubstats had the Flames odds go down last night as well (-0.3%). So even with a win, their chances went due, mostly due to the fact that all the other teams in the race won was well.

I'd say the explanation is that the Flames odds vs the Kings, in isolation, went up, but in the whole playoff picture (when considering the Jets, Wild, etc.) stayed pretty much the same.

EDIT: Calgary's chances actually went up +0.3% - still a very small change due to the OOT

[Resolute 14]

Other factors to keep in mind: The Flames now have one less home game left (3H 6A) and the Kings have one less road game (3H 7A). In this respect, a road win is worth more than a home win. Also, given it is a 25-game rolling Fenwick situationally adjusted, and since the Kings have been dominating teams on the road lately, their odds remain strong.

If the Rangers show up to play tonight and a contending team finally does us a favour and beats LA, you should see their percentage tumble tomorrow, and ours rise.

[troutman]

CGY went up +0.3, and LA went up +3.8. As Res says, away wins must be worth more as they are harder to earn.

Should LA lose in regulation tonight, they will tumble 9.7 to 42.0%.

CGY has burned up home games, and is in a similar boat with LA. Would be nice if WIN or VAN stumbled so that the Flames have two possible paths.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by troutman

CGY went up +0.3, and LA went up +3.8. As Res says, away wins must be worth more as they are harder to earn.

Should LA lose in regulation tonight, they will tumble 9.7 to 42.0%.

CGY has burned up home games, and is in a similar boat with LA. Would be nice if WIN or VAN stumbled so that the Flames have two possible paths.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

If you use the 50/50 scenario - the Flames went up 2.5% and the Kings 1.8%, so yeah it is something in the weighting (home/road or strength of schedule) that effected it.

[Street Pharmacist]

Yes, the reason LA went up and Calgary didn't is simply because all the improvement we gained was outdone by rivals winning away games. The reason LA's odds were lower its not just that they are down two points and a tie breaker, but also that they had more away games. Their schedule got easier, ours harder

[Frequitude]

Corsi's chart seem fairly accurate to me. Sure it sucks that its predicting something that I don't emotionally want. But as it stands now its us vs LA and I don't love our chances. Sure I'm happy to be here but that's a coin flip at best IMO...and probably worse.

[Roof-Daddy]

This 5 game road trip coming up is really tough....

@ Minnesota - hottest team in the West since Jan
@ Nashville - struggling, but 27-7-2 at home
@ Dallas - 8-2 in their last 10
@ St. Louis - They own our a$$es
@ Edmonton - even they might be up for this one in a spoiler role

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

This 5 game road trip coming up is really tough....

@ Minnesota - hottest team in the West since Jan
@ Nashville - struggling, but 27-7-2 at home
@ Dallas - 8-2 in their last 10
@ St. Louis - They own our a$$es
@ Edmonton - even they might be up for this one in a spoiler role

Boy that kind of looks depressing. Ramo/Hiller are going to have to be on top of their games or the trip could be a disaster.

[bomber317]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

This 5 game road trip coming up is really tough....

@ Minnesota - hottest team in the West since Jan
@ Nashville - struggling, but 27-7-2 at home
@ Dallas - 8-2 in their last 10
@ St. Louis - They own our a$$es
@ Edmonton - even they might be up for this one in a spoiler role

Seems like the last few road trips that were suppose to sink the flames, they were able to finish over .500 on those trips.

don't forgot we still have to play Dallas at home tomorrow, another tough game before they head off on their road trip.

[CgyFlamesftw]

Everyone says we have an easy schedule. I just don't see it if anything its gonna be tough with only edmonton and Arizona remaining on the year.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by CgyFlamesftw

Everyone says we have an easy schedule. I just don't see it if anything its gonna be tough with only edmonton and Arizona remaining on the year.

Win those two, and "we" might only need three other wins.

[sec304]

Records required to get to 96 points:

Minnesota: 3-5-1 (9 games left)
Vancouver: 4-6-0 (10 games left)
Winnipeg: 4-5-0 (9 games left)
Calgary: 5-4-0 (9 games left)
Los Angeles: 6-4-0 (10 games left)

[Robbob]

A LA loss tonight would be a thing of beauty. Come on Rangers. Anyone know if Quick is playing back to back?