QOTD: Sean Monahan Expectations

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

He is a franchise player. I see him being an 80+ point player for the next 12+ years.

Franchise, yes - potentially.
80+ points? I really don't think so.
We've all been throwing around Toews type comparisons, and I think it is valid to do so, cautiously, at this point.
Toews has never scored 80 points in the NHL.

[Erick Estrada]

He looks like a natural goal scoring center in the mold of Joe Nieuwendyk. Don't want to go all Oiler fan here and make him out to be a HOF player based on one season but he looks like a good one. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him scoring 50 in the future but it's a different era now so he's not going to get the goals and points as Nieuwendyk did but he's going to be a very good player for this franchise.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I thought he could be a solid #2 center, or a poor man's #1, which I was OK with.

He's quickly blowing that idea out of the water, playing top minutes against top players, shutting them down and about to pot 30.......as a 20 year old?

Improves in all areas, and so smart. He's clearly going to be a #1...or really already is....and a really good #1 to boot.

That's exciting, because if Bennett succeeds, which he should, that will give us two #1 centers for the next decade +.

Sweet.

I was the same. Thought he'd be the #1 while we tried to find a true #1.

We found one

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

He has definitely exceeded my expectations. I also think its a lot of BS that people are saying here they expected this current form from him. Who realistically expects 30 and 30 from a #6 pick with an outstanding all round game?

I think it has come earlier than most expected, but he was talked about as a potential top 3 pick going into his draft year, and was rated as the OHL's top prospect early in that year. That 10 game suspension might have hurt his stock at little bit, but I think we are quite fortunate that he fell into our laps.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

He looks like a natural goal scoring center in the mold of Joe Nieuwendyk. Don't want to go all Oiler fan here and make him out to be a HOF player based on one season but he looks like a good one. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him scoring 50 in the future but it's a different era now so he's not going to get the goals and points as Nieuwendyk did but he's going to be a very good player for this franchise.

Like I said many times on the boards, scoring 50 nowadays is very special. To me it's the new 70. (Again, big reason I think Ovi should get the Hart over Price). I think Mony has a shot at 50 if he continues to be committed to his game, which would be absolutely fantastic. Indeed, if Mony continues on this path, I think he'll be a Hart nominee one day.

If not though, I still think we have the gem of the draft here. He is such an excellent all around player.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

He has definitely exceeded my expectations. I also think its a lot of BS that people are saying here they expected this current form from him. Who realistically expects 30 and 30 from a #6 pick with an outstanding all round game?

Monahan always had a high ceiling. It wasn't unrealistic at all to think he would end up being this good. I just didn't think he'd do it at age 20.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

and he's doing it at crunch time.

Love the rolling average as a way to look at his production over the year.

But how can the trend be currently equal to the highest single data point?

[Geeoff]

If we're talking about expectations since we've drafted him, then he has blown then out of the water by a significant margin.

[Bingo]

Trend line is an order 3 poly which adds projection to trend and doesn't flat line.

Here is the same data with a linear trend which would show what you expected.


I like the poly because it shows the dip and recovery in the projections

[polak]

Oops didn't mean to pick the first option.

Somewhat but faster is what I meant to click. He's been awesome.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Trend line is an order 3 poly which adds projection to trend and doesn't flat line.

Here is the same data with a linear trend which would show what you expected.


I like the poly because it shows the dip and recovery in the projections

I like the poly too, just not keen on projecting the trend forward to places he hasn't been yet.

Regardless, awesome chart and it (both actually) really illustrates his continued growth throughout the season.

[Itse]

I expected a franchise player after last season, but he's getting there faster than expected.

[kermitology]

I'm still not sure what he is ultimately. He still seems like a #2 centre to me, but he's definitely a #1 right now. He's responsible, good on faceoffs, big, can score, etc.

Half the time you watch him and think he's benefiting from playing with some elite talent and then he goes and pulls a move where he calmly out-waits a goaltender for a sure goal. I think ultimately he's got just incredible hockey IQ. He thinks the game well, knows where to go even though he's not a particularly flashy player.

He's elite, for sure, but I guess because he's not so flashy I don't look at him as a franchise player. I definitely thought of him as a #2 centre before this season though.

[Erick Estrada]

He also spent a good portion of the season with Glencross (not exactly a set up man) and an assortment of wingers not named Hudler and Gadreau. Had this line been assembled sooner we could be talking about possibly 40 goals. It's just good to see a first line with some chemistry again after going through a lot of mix and match over the years.

[nik-]

Way better than I expected. If this year is what he consistently does, and never gets higher point and goal totals, I'm totally content with that going forward.

[Geeoff]

I think we were definitely due for a slam dunk 1st round pick like Monahan, given our long list of Fatas.

[GioforPM]

I wouldn't have expected 30-30 as a second year from Bennett, let alone Monahan.

On tap-ins, it's true he gets some of those from Johnny and Jiri, but he also often started or continued the same play a little earlier as well. He gets a fair number of eassy looking goals because of positioning and smarts.

[HelloHockeyFans]

I didn't think Monahan would be this effective so early playing against other team's top lines. He's a smart player and you could see that even in his rookie season, but his progression has been fast this season nearing 30 goals and playing well against the best players every night. You could tell he'd be here one day, but I guessed it'd be maybe 3 years from now.

[Caged Great]

Eric Staal went from 31 in his first year to 100 in his 3rd year (second year was the first lockout), which scoring was significantly inflated that year. Monahan had 34 last year and is on pace for 62 this one.

[Enoch Root]

article on Monahan on NHL.com...

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=7...id=DL|NHL|home