How hard is it to draft a blue-chip D-Man?

[Hackey]

Wah.

[OzSome]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I'd really like the Flames to load up on D at this years draft. Of course you take the best player available but really most guys in the draft will fall into a tier of talent so I hope when they look at guys in any tier they elect to pursue a "all other things being equal take the d-man" strategy.

Brodie and Giordano are great but the Flames need a better 3-4 then Russell/Wideman.

Yep the same lesser talent 3-4 defensemen you mentioned are the same defensemen the Flames is counting on to play more minutes than any top defensemen in the league.

Drafting a defenseman is a crapshoot because it usually takes longer for them to get used to the plays in the NHL. There is a reason why most teams do not draft a defenseman higher every draft day unless they think he is a sure thing. I am going to be happy if the Flames can draft another TJ Brodie. Someone who is off the radar then when he turned professional he gets better and better.

[FlameZilla]

With the addition of Kenney Morrisson suddenly our D prospects don't look so bad. I see them stacked up in 2 tiers:

Wotherspoon – top 4 shut-down potential; NHL-ready IMO
Hickey – top-pairing potential; 2–3+ years development needed (NCAA, AHL)
Morrisson – top 4 2-way potential; possibly NHL-ready
Kulak – top 4 2-way potential; 1-2 years more development needed (AHL)
Culkin – ditto
Gilmour – a bit small, but top 4 potential; possibly our most under-rated prospect
Rafikov – top 6 potential; timeframe is a mystery
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kanzig – #6/7 potential; beast of a man but can he skate? Find out soon...
Sieloff – bottom pairing potential at this point; lost a year of dev so patience is key
Mattson – bottom pairing potential; timeframe is a mystery
Cundari – fringe NHLer; could see spot duty as #6/7 again (prob not with Flames)
Acolaste – ditto
Billins – ditto
Ramage – not showing much NHL potential

I expect Wotherspoon, Morrisson, Culkin, Kulak and Kanzig to be competing hard for roster spots in camp – if the need was desperate I believe any of those 5 could play in the NHL next season.

Hickey, Gilmour and Rafikov are further away from contributing, but they may have the highest ceilings. Hickey in particular looks like he could be the next Brodie.

Our D prospects are a bit like the franchise in general: underrated, under-the-radar but better than people expect. There's enough there that one or 2 could crack the lineup in the not-too-distant future. In my opinion the 2 with the best chance of becoming top-4 D are Hickey and Morrisson.

[Phanuthier]

John Ramage - did he show no progress this year? kind of surprised everyone is writing him off to saying outright releasing him.

Sieloff - I know a lot of people preface that he is a year behind in development, but he's only 20 years old...

I kind of find it hard to predict D until they are already good... personally the only guy I think anyone can really say much, unless they actually watch AHL games, is Wotherspoon from his short stint in Calgary last year. Which was very good IMO.

[Vulcan]

As for giving credit to Ward for fixing Brodie's game, IIRC Brodie gives credit to Playfair for being tough on him and teaching him the pro game. We sure got a good one with him though and if any of our defence prospects turn out half as good, we'll be pretty well off.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

John Ramage - did he show no progress this year? kind of surprised everyone is writing him off to saying outright releasing him.

Sieloff - I know a lot of people preface that he is a year behind in development, but he's only 20 years old...

I kind of find it hard to predict D until they are already good... personally the only guy I think anyone can really say much, unless they actually watch AHL games, is Wotherspoon from his short stint in Calgary last year. Which was very good IMO.

For the first half of the season, Cundari was terrible and a likely candidate to let walk. He has been better lately, but I still don't see the need to keep him. It would be like losing Billins. That didn't really hurt the team much.

Ramage has been okay, but he needed to take a larger step forward to be showing progress towards an eventual NHL spot and he hasn't. In my opinion, his spot would be better used on Kanzig. Calgary just has too many AHL calibre D-men and a few guys ready to make the next step into the AHL (Morrison, Kanzig, Rafikov, and Yevenko)

[afc wimbledon]

From a strictly cap point of view it doesn't make much sense drafting high for defence, they will be long past they're ELC by the time they are making a valuable contribution generally therefore you lose the cap lowering effect of a high pick filling up a second line slot cheaply that a decent young forward can bring in his second or third year

[FAN]

I don't think drafting defensemen is a crapshoot. There are teams that obviously draft and develop defensemen better than others (e.g. Nashville, Ottawa, San Jose, Pittsburgh). And then there are drafts that were deep in defensemen like the 2008 draft where the odds were you were better off drafting defensemen.

We see teams drafting forwards and I think partly it is because they tend to be ready to contribute earlier and there are more spots for a forward (most teams don't the good old top 6 bottom 6 thing anymore). I think it is easier to win without an elite defenseman than to win without an elite forward it is easier to draft that top pairing defensemen after the first round than top line forwards. But a lot of it has to do with the draft itself.

As mentioned, 2008 was seen as the possibly the best draft for defensemen ever and we saw that picks were 2-5 were defensemen. Those defensemen were considered sure things and projected top pairing defensemen. In 2012, there were 4-5 defensemen who were ranked very close to each other and considered sure things. Up front there was Yakupov, Forsberg, Galchenyuk as the top 3 forwards with Grigorenko (Russian factor) and Teravainen (size) being the other forwards who had star potential. Consequently, we saw a lot of defensemen drafted in the Top 10. In 2014, there was Ekblad then Fleury as the clearcut two best defensemen and everybody else was considered a step down. Consequently, we saw a lot of forwards drafted in the first round.

But as we have seen, top 4 defensemen cost a lot to acquire and UFA defensemen cost a lot money. There are a lot more deals to be had with UFA forwards than UFA defensemen IMO. You only need to look at how much it cost us to acquire Wideman as opposed to Hudler.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

John Ramage - did he show no progress this year? kind of surprised everyone is writing him off to saying outright releasing him.

Sieloff - I know a lot of people preface that he is a year behind in development, but he's only 20 years old...

I kind of find it hard to predict D until they are already good... personally the only guy I think anyone can really say much, unless they actually watch AHL games, is Wotherspoon from his short stint in Calgary last year. Which was very good IMO.

It isn't looking good for Pat Sieloff. Comments from management in preseason implied they were going to experiment with Sieloff as a forward because, at 6’, he wasn't a big enough body to play the game he wants to play. Now late in the season Huska is playing Sieloff as a winger. It doesn't bode well for his future with the Flames. How many freakin' LWers do we have on the cards already?

To me he needed to play lots of minutes on D this year to make up for missing last year entirely. Perhaps he would have been better served by spending the year in the ECHL than by being a healthy scratch in the AHL. Hopefully he plays well enough next year to play a full season in the AHL.

As you say, he's only 20 and could conceivably become a decent defenceman for us in 4 or 5 years time. Or maybe he's the next Lance Bouma? Do our management have the kind of patience needed to devote a contract to this guy if they're not even sure what position they want him to play? A lot of questions surrounding him and I don't think it bodes well that he's been leapfrogged by a half-dozen other defence prospects in the system and that we're going into the 2015 draft with 6 picks in the first 3 rounds.

I like him, though, and hope he pulls through. He's got the right attitude to best the odds. Next year is going be huge for him.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

From a strictly cap point of view it doesn't make much sense drafting high for defence, they will be long past they're ELC by the time they are making a valuable contribution generally therefore you lose the cap lowering effect of a high pick filling up a second line slot cheaply that a decent young forward can bring in his second or third year

But when you are talking about drafting high for defense, you are probably talking about a defenseman with first pairing potential. In drafts where there is a franchise #1 centre and a franchise #1 defensemen available, the #1 Centre often gets picked 1st overall ,but it is the defenseman that wins more Cups: Lindros vs Niedermayer, Daigle vs Pronger, Stamkos vs Doughty.

I mean since like 2001, has there been a defenseman drafted in the top 8 who has been a total bust besides Cam Barker?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

John Ramage - did he show no progress this year? kind of surprised everyone is writing him off to saying outright releasing him.

He might have shown progress, but there're only so many contracts and AHL minutes. I personally feel like Dustin Stevenson, Kenney Morrison, Keegan Kanzig, and Sena Acolatse probably make a stronger case at this point, especially if we wanna open up max minutes for our three studs Kulak, Culkin, and Wotherspoon. (Jason Fram? Oleg Yevenko?)

Patrick Sieloff is only going into the second year of his ELC too. That leaves Cundari and Ramage. Cundari has shown enough that he probably deserves a spot but even that is a questionable decision considering.

Best case scenario for development AND probably for the NHL Flames is for at least two of the #5 thru #7 roster spots to be open next season for the taking, and for Wotherspoon and Morrison to graduate. And considering their handling of Wotherspoon this year I see that as optimistic, they're too in love with mediocre vet blueliners (Smid ain't bad, when paired with a puck mover. If we have to start next season with Smid-Engelland again I will go crazy.)

So anyways i'd argue one of Ramage, Acolatse or Stevenson end up being the last cut. Acolatse is the most useful offensively as well as a Hartley-type who will lay his body on the line no questions asked, and Stevenson is pretty much the same player as Ramage, except notably bigger.

[sureLoss]

Lets cool it on the Fram talk. The Flames (and all the other NHL teams) have had all year to sign him and they haven't yet. They could sign him right this very moment but haven't.

It looks like at most they are going to give Fram a tryout and maybe see how it goes from there, assuming he doesn't decide to try his luck in another organization. So lets not pencil him in yet for next year.

[sureLoss]

Just looked up Fram's birthday he is eligible for the 2015 draft. Flames have to draft him or hope that he goes undrafted to sign him.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

It isn't looking good for Pat Sieloff. Comments from management in preseason implied they were going to experiment with Sieloff as a forward because, at 6’, he wasn't a big enough body to play the game he wants to play. Now late in the season Huska is playing Sieloff as a winger. It doesn't bode well for his future with the Flames. How many freakin' LWers do we have on the cards already?

To me he needed to play lots of minutes on D this year to make up for missing last year entirely. Perhaps he would have been better served by spending the year in the ECHL than by being a healthy scratch in the AHL. Hopefully he plays well enough next year to play a full season in the AHL.

As you say, he's only 20 and could conceivably become a decent defenceman for us in 4 or 5 years time. Or maybe he's the next Lance Bouma? Do our management have the kind of patience needed to devote a contract to this guy if they're not even sure what position they want him to play? A lot of questions surrounding him and I don't think it bodes well that he's been leapfrogged by a half-dozen other defence prospects in the system and that we're going into the 2015 draft with 6 picks in the first 3 rounds.

I like him, though, and hope he pulls through. He's got the right attitude to best the odds. Next year is going be huge for him.

Sieloff actually has a really good slap shot and wrister with fairly decent accuracy, which is shocking for the lack of offensive numbers he has put up through his junior career. He has the right attitude to be a leader in much the same manner that Bouma does, perhaps he might just be one of those weird guys that transitions effectively from a D-man role into a forward role.

There is nothing in his game that would be a hindrance to him becoming a forward, he has good enough foot speed and is mean enough to be a winger. At least there's the option anyway.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Just looked up Fram's birthday he is eligible for the 2015 draft. Flames have to draft him or hope that he goes undrafted to sign him.

Well with nine picks we can definitely draft him, but where? Last year they fearlessly took Hunter Smith around 55 I think which was considered a reach for a second-timer but it's starting to look fine, especially as we still scored Hickey later.

Does our recent track record draw any unwanted attention to him?

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Well with nine picks we can definitely draft him, but where? Last year they fearlessly took Hunter Smith around 55 I think which was considered a reach for a second-timer but it's starting to look fine, especially as we still scored Hickey later.

Does our recent track record draw any unwanted attention to him?

I probably wouldn't use a top 3 round pick on him. If he's on the board for the 5th round or with the 6th/7th, maybe but there are too many other good players in this draft to use a top 90 on someone with as many defensive zone issues. Offensively, he's good, but he is prone to some of the same mistakes that Cundari made in the early part of this season.

All things being equal, I'd rather go with Parker Wotherspoon, so we can have good start on a 'spoon collection.

[sureLoss]

Fram isn't even ranked on the CSS rankings. He should be below a lot of team's radars.

Even using a late round pick on him maybe a waste if the Flames think there are better players than him available.

Sounds like the Flames left a positive impression and if he does go undrafted, he will likely sign with the Flames.

[foshizzle11]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Too early to tell yet. Just look at the 2009 draft, only now are guys like Hedman and Ekman-Larsson being realized as top 4 d-men. Seems like you need to wait a good 5 years after a draft to see real quality defencemen emerge

So, thinking about that, lets go back a few years in our drafting record.

In 2008, we drafted TJ Brodie and Deilert....who is Deilert?

2009 we only drafted Tim Erixon as a defenseman.

2010, Joey Leach and John Ramage. Only Ramage is still in our system and could pan out but he has already been in our system for 5 years. So he gets another few years before any decisions are made on him?

2011, one dman was picked by the flames and that was Wotherspoon. Still up in the air what becomes of him, seems like he will become an NHLer in the next few seasons, possibly even next year. Kind of seems right on course to become an NHL player in 5 years from his draft. Maybe by this time next season he is a full time NHLer. I hope so.

2012, Sieloff, Kulak and Culkin. So by the 2017-2018 season, we will likely see at least 1 of these guys playing in the NHL I would imagine. It would be great to see 2 of these guys. It is a good sign that the team started to pick more D prospects in 2012, since we didn't draft many the seasons prior.

2013, Kanzig, Rafikov, Roy and Gilmour. I think we have a couple of good assets here so far, maybe not top 4 at this point but we like what we see in Rafikov and will get a better idea next season if he comes to NA. It seems to be one of the more interesting prospects IMO.

2014, Brandon Hickey and Ollas-Mattsson. Well, seems to me that Brandon Hickey could be a diamond in the rough from the 3rd round. Will it take him 5 years to reach the NHL? probably since he is in the NCAA and will likely play some time in the AHL. I don't know much about Mattsson so far.

I think that in the next 3 years we will have a completely different bottom 4 that will be made up of our younger prospects from the last 3 drafts. During the Sutter years of drafting, we didn't do much for getting a dman, picking just 1 it seems each year. I see Gio being here for his whole career, whether it is in a top pairing role or not I don't know but we will have Russell and Brodie leading the way I am sure if Gio regresses in the next 3 years. I don't know that Wideman will be here after his contract is done and I doubt Engelland, Smid, Diaz, etc are re-signed.

Picking up a blue-chip dman isn't easy, but I think our org is on the right track in finding one. Good job by Feaster and co to start drafting more of them, knowing we were quite short on top d prospects and I am happy to see the trend continue last year and hopefully this season too.

[JohnnyTitan]

Nevermind! Problem solved!! ;-) WOOT!!

[Stay Golden]

Doug Hamilton = Blue chip D man. A big, established Blue chip D Man