Magic Numbers Thread

[HelloHockeyFans]

As mentioned by a number of others, strength of schedule really doesn't mean much at this time of year.

If we look back over the last week:

Correct based on "strength of schedule":

1. Winnipeg losing to St. Louis
2. Minnesota beating New Jersey
3. LA beating Colorado
4. Colorado beating New Jersey
5. Anaheim beating Minnesota
6. Calgary beating Toronto
7. Chicago beating San Jose
8. Vancouver beating Toronto
9. Nashville beating LA



Incorrect based on "strength of schedule":

1. Minnesota losing to Colorado
2. Calgary losing to Ottawa
3. Vancouver beating Anaheim
4. Calgary beating Anaheim
5. Vancouver losing to LA
6. San Jose beating Nashville
7. Winnipeg beating Tampa Bay
8. Minnesota beating St. Louis
9. Calgary losing to Colorado

So, about half of the time, the team that "should win" does, but the other half of the time it doesn't happen.

[heep223]

^ it'd be interesting to do an analysis on this at the beginning of the season vs the end of the season. End of the year some strong teams are mailing it in and some weak teams are playing really loose. Could be part of the reason for the anomaly.

[Caged Great]

[AC]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

So we need a combined 13 Flames wins / Jets losses.

Calgary home games left - only 2 hot teams

• STL (6-3-1)
• PHI (3-3-4)
• CBJ (4-6-0)
  
• COL (7-3-0)
• DAL (5-4-1
• ARZ (1-8-1)
• LA (5-4-1)

Calgary road games left - only 2 hot teams

• MIN (7-3-0)
• NSH (2-8-0)
• DAL (5-4-1) back-to-back
  
• STL (6-3-1)
• EDM (1-7-2)
• WPG (4-4-2)

Winnipeg home games left - 6 hot teams

• SJ (5-5-0)
• STL (6-3-1)
• WSH (4-6-0)
  
• MTL (5-3-2)
  
• CHI (6-3-1)
  
• NYR (8-1-1)
  
• VAN (6-3-1)
  
• CGY (6-3-1)

Winnipeg road games left - 4 hot teams

• EDM (1-7-2)
  
• VAN (6-3-1) back-to-back
• MIN (7-3-0)
• STL (6-3-1) back-to-back
  
• COL (7-3-0)

[bomber317]

^^^

Definitely prefer the Hotness rating schedule vs the strength of schedule.

[AC]

Originally Posted by bomber317

^^^

Definitely prefer the Hotness rating schedule vs the strength of schedule.

Yeah its a more immediate look at the strength of each opponent. Nashville struggling badly right now for example when we play them twice.

[Robbob]

So out of 25 games, we need 13 favorable outcomes. 13 of those we have a direct impact on the outcome. Close to the same scenario with LA.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Man, that doesn't look good for Winnipeg.

[Caged Great]

With the loss, Arizona is now going to finish 13th or 14th.

There are now only a dozen teams fighting for eight spots.

[getbak]

Now the Oilers and Coyotes are in their own little race to the bottom. Meanwhile, it will probably be another three weeks before anyone else is officially eliminated.

[Caged Great]

Deleted both Edmonton and Arizona because who cares about teams that are irrelevant. Calgary is now on the outside looking in after four days of bad OOT scoreboards and a pair of losses.

[Caged Great]

[Caged Great]

[wwkayaker]

Possible stupid question alert but here it comes:

If I read the chart beginning with the top team and then going down to the cell of a corresponding team on the left, I get one number. If I read the chart beginning with the team on the left column and go to the cell of a corresponding team on the top, I get a different number. Is this to do with a tiebreaker?

Ie, starting at the top where WPG is listed, I follow the column down to where it lines up with Calgary, the magic number is 12. If I go down the left hand column to Winnipeg and go across to the column of CGY, I get 11. Why is there a discrepancy?

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by wwkayaker

Possible stupid question alert but here it comes:

If I read the chart beginning with the top team and then going down to the cell of a corresponding team on the left, I get one number. If I read the chart beginning with the team on the left column and go to the cell of a corresponding team on the top, I get a different number. Is this to do with a tiebreaker?

Ie, starting at the top where WPG is listed, I follow the column down to where it lines up with Calgary, the magic number is 12. If I go down the left hand column to Winnipeg and go across to the column of CGY, I get 11. Why is there a discrepancy?

12 is Calgary's number to displace Winnipeg. 11 is Winnipeg's number to displace Calgary. In other words, the magic numbers favour Winnipeg at this time, by 1.


Edit: easier way to view it is to look at Colorado. Only a few bad outcomes for Colorado and they no longer can catch to top teams in the division (eg top teams have a small magic number in Colorado's column). However, Colorado needs lots of fortune to catch those top teams (eg large magic numbers in Colorado's row).

[Caged Great]

In the horizontal column, that is how many games that team needs to win + the other team to lose to eliminate them.

If you look at Nashville VS STL, the # is 12.5, meaning that they need a combination of 12 wins + STL losses and an OT point for them to finish ahead of the Blues

St.Louis only requires 9.5 wins + Nashville losses to finish ahead of them.

The team with the higher # needs the other team to lose in order to catch up.

[Tsawwassen]

Shouldn't the bottom left spot of Anaheim-Dallas be an orange block too (just like the top right)?

[Caged Great]

yes. I'll have it fixed tomorrow

[Caged Great]

Lots of movement on this one. Unfortunately almost all the key teams won again except Los Angeles who fell to the Canucks. Colorado, Dallas and San Jose need to practically win every one of their remaining games in order to make the playoffs. Colorado and Dallas are more hooped than the Sharks because they are 8 points behind Winnipeg, a virtually insurmountable lead with only 10/11 games remaining. The Jets would have to fall flat on their face to miss.

It's a three horse race between us, Vancouver and Los Angeles for the final two spots.

[hwy19man]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

It's a three horse race between us, Vancouver and Los Angeles for the final two spots.

It is a five horse race for the last four playoff spots, the Jets and Wild are in this too.