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Old 03-15-2015, 09:16 AM   #561
Enoch Root
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So Bennett's small sample size OHL season is suggesting he'd be a 50 point player at the NHL level as an 18 year old if you use the NHLE tables.

Clearly 11 games isn't enough to call that a good stat, but its interesting.
You're using an equivalency of 0.26?

I thought the OHL factor was 0.3, which would give an NHLe of 57
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:18 AM   #562
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While on one hand his timing might not be finely tuned (although at this stage, thats probably not a factor any more), one thing to remember is that Bennett is a players whose battery is fully charged, playing against those who have almost a whole seasons worth of games, bus trips, and bums and bruises to deal with. It's like joining a marathon with only 2km to go...so it's not a total surprise he has had a surge of production.

I guess I'm just trying not to get too excited, ha.
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:21 AM   #563
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Remember when, before he was sent down, people were saying everyone else is in mid-season form so he needs to go down because he will be behind?

Now that he's not behind (not even close), it's because he's fresh
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:28 AM   #564
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Edmonton and Buffalo are tanking their arses off for a 20% chance of getting McDavid next year.

Meanwhile, Calgary has a 100% chance of getting Bennett next year.

Suckas...
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:32 AM   #565
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Sorry is this trying to be funny, or just trolling?
I think he's trying to be funny because there's nothing where he says my arguments are below
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:41 AM   #566
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Remember when, before he was sent down, people were saying everyone else is in mid-season form so he needs to go down because he will be behind?

Now that he's not behind (not even close), it's because he's fresh
Yeah, except one group of players are professional NHLers and the other are teenagers..big difference in competition and expectations. Having said that, I personally think there were many more legitimate reasons to send him down than being able to keep up. He would've have more than enough energy.
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:52 AM   #567
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You're using an equivalency of 0.26?

I thought the OHL factor was 0.3, which would give an NHLe of 57
Did I botch it? 21/11*82*.3
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:54 AM   #568
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Did I botch it? 21/11*82*.3
yup... Bennett is 9 games played not 11.
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:59 AM   #569
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57 it is!
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Old 03-15-2015, 10:10 AM   #570
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Yeah, except one group of players are professional NHLers and the other are teenagers..big difference in competition and expectations. Having said that, I personally think there were many more legitimate reasons to send him down than being able to keep up. He would've have more than enough energy.
Obviously they are different leagues.

The issue was: would he be disadvantaged due to everyone else being mid-season form?

The answer is: either he too is in mid-season form, or he is going to be off the charts when he is.

He is playing junior, yes. But he is playing at an NHLe of 57 pts. To put that into perspective, that is roughly equivalent to what Monahan is doing this year.

Right now. While he is still catching up.
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Old 03-15-2015, 10:53 AM   #571
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I wonder if there is a chance that Bennett gets invited to play for Canada at the World Championship this year. Recently Hockey Canada has been willing to take a top level junior player. Kingston will be in tough to last past the second round so that should be about mid April.
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Old 03-15-2015, 11:06 AM   #572
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So Bennett's small sample size OHL season is suggesting he'd be a 50 point player at the NHL level as an 18 year old if you use the NHLE tables.

Clearly 11 games isn't enough to call that a good stat, but its interesting.
One more note on NHLe.

The accepted number for the OHL is 0.30. But it is important to keep in mind that that number is an aggregate stat from all of the kids that jump from the OHL.

When you consider age, there can be significant differences. It goes without saying that 2PPG for a 20 year old is not the same thing as 2PPG for an 18 year old.

While there isn't nearly as much data, it appears that, for an 18 year old to make the jump, the equivalency is higher - possibly north of 0.4 (though the variance is quite large)
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Old 03-15-2015, 11:08 AM   #573
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Oh, and it is important to repeat that we are talking about a tiny sample size here with Bennett (but it's still interesting to look at the numbers anyway)
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Old 03-15-2015, 11:09 AM   #574
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Imo it's good that Monahan, Gaudreau and Bennett's first years are staggered. Gives them all a shot at the Calder.

McDavid will be slowed next year by the captitude of whatever team gets him. Unless it's FLA. Bennett will be playing with a confident Flames team. I actually like his chances.
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Old 03-15-2015, 11:11 AM   #575
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my money is on McDavid
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Old 03-15-2015, 11:38 AM   #576
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my money is on McDavid
I think that will mightily depend on who gets him.

If he goes to Edmonton or Buffalo he'll be the defacto #1 centre and get tons and tons of icetime. If he goes to Toronto or Arizona they'll have much less offensive support for him.
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Old 03-15-2015, 11:58 AM   #577
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Obviously they are different leagues.
If they are obviously different leagues and sets of circumstances, why try to attach my comment about him being fresher than his OHL competition to something other people said about his NHL chances? There way way too many variables involved to try to paint me with that brush.

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The issue was: would he be disadvantaged due to everyone else being mid-season form?

The answer is: either he too is in mid-season form, or he is going to be off the charts when he is.
It doesn't necessarily have to be so back and white. A player can be disadvantaged in terms of timing/systems/chemistry, but can also still have a huge advantage in terms of energy and health. Bennett might still have room for growth in terms of adjusting his play, AND still be ahead-of everyone on the energy meter.
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Old 03-15-2015, 12:11 PM   #578
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Sam Bennett's highlights from March 14th:

1st Period - Bennett's first 2 goals. Then a couple more good offensive shifts, including drawing a penalty.

Link

2nd Period - More turnovers leading to good chances, he's just a tazmanian devil on the forecheck. SB throws a big hit on 2 players, a "Double Dion" if you will. More good pressure and chances. Hat-trick goal on a turnover. Finally his PP assist that was disallowed.

Link

3rd Period - Nice give and go for a chance on the PP, then a great play for a beautiful assist. The top line was sat the rest of the game for the most part, probably to not run up the score any further and to rest them for their 3rd game in a back-to-back-to-back!

Link
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Old 03-15-2015, 12:17 PM   #579
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This kid is already my favorite flame....
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Old 03-15-2015, 12:20 PM   #580
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If they are obviously different leagues and sets of circumstances, why try to attach my comment about him being fresher than his OHL competition to something other people said about his NHL chances? There way way too many variables involved to try to paint me with that brush.
I said 'people'. Not 'painting you' at all.

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It doesn't necessarily have to be so back and white. A player can be disadvantaged in terms of timing/systems/chemistry, but can also still have a huge advantage in terms of energy and health. Bennett might still have room for growth in terms of adjusting his play, AND still be ahead-of everyone on the energy meter.
Absolutely. In other words, having that energy and health can compensate for being a step behind from not having played, essentially eliminating the issue.

He is showing that he is an NHLer playing in the OHL.
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