03-12-2015, 01:29 AM
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#941
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Salmon with Arms
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
You might think the Flames were lucky to score on so few shots in the last half of the game, but they create blue chip scoring chances and they have some big time finishers.
Is there an advanced stat that compares scoring chances rather than shots? That would be more telling.
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A rudimentary one. War-on-ice.com uses a formula where they take shot attempts from the slot and on the rush (and a few more I believe) and call that a scoring chance as those shots have a higher shooting percentage.
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03-12-2015, 05:03 AM
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#942
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Franchise Player
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After Wednesday's games:
1. Minnesota (37-23-7) 33 ROW, 81 pts
Vancouver (38-24-4) 34 ROW, 80 pts--second in Pacific Division
Calgary (37-25-5) 33 ROW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
2. Winnipeg (33-22-12) 27 ROW, 78 pts
3. Los Angeles (32-21-13) 30 ROW, 77 pts--and fourth in Pacific Division
4. San Jose (33-26-8) 30 ROW, 74 pts--and fifth in the Pacific Division
5. Colorado (30-26-11) 22 ROW, 71 pts
6. Dallas (30-27-10) 27 ROW, 70 pts
Flames won in regulation
__________________
Remember this, TSN stands for Toronto's Sports Network! 
MOD EDIT: Removed broken image link.
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03-12-2015, 06:22 AM
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#943
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: 127.0.0.1
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LA vs.Canucks tonight.
Best case scenario...
They both lose.
Not a 3 pointer
???
Who do we want to win?
__________________
Pass the bacon.
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03-12-2015, 06:26 AM
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#944
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DuffMan
LA vs.Canucks tonight.
Best case scenario...
They both lose.
Not a 3 pointer
???
Who do we want to win?
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Not a 3
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03-12-2015, 06:36 AM
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#945
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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I have nothing to say. His twitter @ineffectivemath is aptly named.
This model is no good.
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03-12-2015, 06:38 AM
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#946
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce
I have nothing to say. His twitter @ineffectivemath is aptly named.
This model is no good. |
I know a sad celebraty who would buy that as modern art 
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03-12-2015, 06:52 AM
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#947
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Sweden
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DuffMan
LA vs.Canucks tonight.
Best case scenario...
They both lose.
Not a 3 pointer
???
Who do we want to win?
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At this point I'd rather see the Kings stumble.
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03-12-2015, 06:52 AM
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#948
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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Why post it if it just riles you up?
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03-12-2015, 06:59 AM
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#949
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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The McCurdy chart?
I think it's important to point out where/how 'advanced stats' are misused, at every opportunity.
The stats have value, in limited measure. McCurdy obviously thinks they explain everything.
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03-12-2015, 07:10 AM
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#950
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: SW Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
Why post it if it just riles you up?
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Along with others like myself. Please leave that garbage chart out of this.
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03-12-2015, 07:22 AM
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#951
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce
The McCurdy chart?
I think it's important to point out where/how 'advanced stats' are misused, at every opportunity.
The stats have value, in limited measure. McCurdy obviously thinks they explain everything.
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It is patently obvious that a possession based prediction tool will not favour the Flames, so your faux outrage and hyperbole over such a prediction tool is disingenuous and literally adds nothing of value to the conversation.
Honestly, you are really just behaving as a perfect mirror of the extreme spreadsheet guys. You're both really just saying "stop liking things I don't." And just like the analytics guys need to realize that exceptions exist for reasons other than luck, you need to realize the model is currently showing seven of eight playoff teams correctly and has the top six in proper order of standings.
One thing that should be noted is that even under this model, our odds of qualifying have gone up 150% in the past two to three weeks.
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03-12-2015, 07:25 AM
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#952
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crapshoot
At this point I'd rather see the Kings stumble.
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As long as it ends a two point game and we beat the Leafs.
If Vancouver loses, we can put another team to our rear view mirror. If LA loses, then we can build the gap on ninth.
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03-12-2015, 07:42 AM
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#953
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Franchise Player
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The chart now says 51%. In other words, it says they will probably make it into the postseason. It is now more likely than not, by Micah's methodology, that one of the 8 teams currently in the playoff discussion besides the Flames misses the playoffs.
The "coin toss" odds actually pretty well mirror my intuitive sense of the likelihood at this stage.
Quote:
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The stats have value, in limited measure. McCurdy obviously thinks they explain everything.
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Yeah man. Obviously. I see the clearly indicated caption on the chart where he's written that.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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03-12-2015, 07:44 AM
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#954
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
It is patently obvious that a possession based prediction tool will not favour the Flames, so your faux outrage and hyperbole over such a prediction tool is disingenuous and literally adds nothing of value to the conversation.
Honestly, you are really just behaving as a perfect mirror of the extreme spreadsheet guys. You're both really just saying "stop liking things I don't." And just like the analytics guys need to realize that exceptions exist for reasons other than luck, you need to realize the model is currently showing seven of eight playoff teams correctly and has the top six in proper order of standings.
One thing that should be noted is that even under this model, our odds of qualifying have gone up 150% in the past two to three weeks.
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Not sure that saying something is 'no good' qualifies as outrage or hyperbole. I'm simply both interested and amused by it.
In my opinion, a formula that currently has the Jets as 25% more likely to make the playoffs than the Flames is not particularly accurate, useful or valuable.
I am all for including a measure of 'advanced stats' in a predictor, but one that skews results less than this.
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03-12-2015, 07:44 AM
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#955
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
The chart now says 51%. In other words, it says they will probably make it into the postseason. It is now more likely than not, by Micah's methodology, that one of the 8 teams currently in the playoff discussion besides the Flames misses the playoffs.
The "coin toss" odds actually pretty well mirror my intuitive sense of the likelihood at this stage.
Yeah man. Obviously. I see the clearly indicated caption on the chart where he's written that.
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You mad bro?
Seriously though, why do you seem to take digs at this chart personally?
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03-12-2015, 07:47 AM
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#956
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Franchise Player
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What part of that was me taking a dig at the chart "personally"? They're numbers, they have nothing to do with me "personally". I made the point that for the first time the methodology says it would be a good bet to bet on Calgary to make the playoffs (even if only slightly).
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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03-12-2015, 07:52 AM
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#957
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
What part of that was me taking a dig at the chart "personally"? They're numbers, they have nothing to do with me "personally". I made the point that for the first time the methodology says it would be a good bet to bet on Calgary to make the playoffs (even if only slightly).
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
The chart now says 51%. In other words, it says they will probably make it into the postseason. It is now more likely than not, by Micah's methodology, that one of the 8 teams currently in the playoff discussion besides the Flames misses the playoffs.
The "coin toss" odds actually pretty well mirror my intuitive sense of the likelihood at this stage.
Yeah man. Obviously. I see the clearly indicated caption on the chart where he's written that.
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This part perhaps? I just don't know why you have to take the bait and engage is all.
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03-12-2015, 08:04 AM
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#958
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Lifetime Suspension
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That chart should never be posted on CP again and be fired into the sun.
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03-12-2015, 08:10 AM
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#959
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15
This part perhaps? I just don't know why you have to take the bait and engage is all.
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I just think his over the top reaction is funny. " This chart is presented as a quintessential example of the failings of advanced statistics! Why is it a good example? Because I say so! Further, I shall now attribute extreme and unlikely beliefs to this individual I have never met, because his work yields conclusions that displease me!"
It's... a chart. The extreme reactions it provokes for coming to a conclusion that doesn't mirror the standings (which, I mean, just look at the standings if that's all that matters to you) would be baffling if not for that whole human nature thing.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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03-12-2015, 08:19 AM
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#960
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Franchise Player
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rable rabble chart rabble rabble. Seriously though, for CORSI standards the 51% is pretty much a tip of the hat considering this team can not be accurately measured using that analytic.
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