Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

It heavily relies on corsi and Fenwick over the previous 25 games. Calgary's has been dreadful corsi wise

So it is a pile of garage that means nothing.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So it is a pile of garage that means nothing.

Yes and no.

Treating it as gospel is stupid.

But the fact remains that most playoff teams have good Corsi. If we make the playoffs, it means we beat the odds - and one to two teams do every year.

Resurrection - what site does those charts? I want to check something out.

[united]

I believe he also assumes goaltending is equal among all teams, but I could be wrong.

That is to say if hypothetically Montreal and Edmonton had the same corsi, he would call them equal teams. When in reality Montreal with Price will give up one less goal every game than Edmonton with Scrivens or Fasth would. An extreme example, but a consideration.

[polak]

Goal differential is far more predictive than those stats for such a short period of time.

[Resolute 14]

Truthfully, I doubt any of it is likely terribly predictive over a short period of time.

How predictive is past goal differential or Corsi when Vancouver and LA have twice as many games left against Edmonton and Arizona as we do?

[polak]

Yeah I never put much into those playoff chance numbers, just like I don't put much stock into these imaginary "we should make it if we get X points".

We need to stay above the last playoff team. That's it. Nothing else will be a guarantee. As soon as we slip below them, we are no longer in control of our destiny in any way.

[DJones]

From 20 games out and with multiple teams nipping at our heels I think aiming for 96 points is the best way to look at it.

You can give yourself a heart attack checking scores every night but if we hit 96 points we should be alright.

So if we finish the year going 12-7 we should be fine. One or two of the other teams will most likely fall off that pace.

[dino7c]

Flames will make it if they get 96 points

12-7 lets do it

[heep223]

Originally Posted by polak

just like I don't put much stock into these imaginary "we should make it if we get X points".

We can look at the last 10 years and estimate how many points it'll take to get in. It's a very simplistic and concrete approach (ie. win 12 and we're in!), curious as to why you don't agree.

EDIT: Also it's funny that the two posts directly below yours did exactly this.

[Resolute 14]

12-7 is .632 hockey.

Just goes to show how ill timed the fumbles over the last eight games have been. We barely needed .500 two weeks ago.

[Bourque's Twin]

9 games scheduled against playoff teams (3 home, 6 away):
@BOS, @DET, ANA, STL, @MIN, @NSH, @STL, LA, @WPG
10 games scheduled against non-playoff teams (6 home, 4 away):
@OTT, TOR, @COL, CBJ, PHI, COL, DAL, @DAL, @EDM, PHX

[troutman]

93 or 94 points might even be enough this year (and CGY has tie-breakers vs. LA and WIN?).

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by troutman

93 or 94 points might even be enough this year (and CGY has tie-breakers vs. LA and WIN?).

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

Yeah 94 probably does it, all these teams can't run the table...96 is fo sho though

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

12-7 is .632 hockey.

Just goes to show how ill timed the fumbles over the last eight games have been. We barely needed .500 two weeks ago.

eight game losing streak too but thats how she goes

[ThatsRobbery]

Calgary holds tie-breakers over most of the teams in the race besides Minnesota so that gives us a decent edge too

[edslunch]

19 games left.

9-10 in their last 19 games, lost best player and a vet. Not looking good.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by edslunch

19 games left.

9-10 in their last 19 games, lost best player and a vet. Not looking good.

SP calculated that since Jan 14th, CGY has gained on every team in the race except MIN.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by edslunch

19 games left.

9-10 in their last 19 games, lost best player and a vet. Not looking good.

And still in a playoff spot!

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by troutman

SP calculated that since Jan 14th, CGY has gained on every team in the race except MIN.

That's surprising since they're just 10-10 in that period, but maybe that's an indication of how competitive the division is or that none of the teams are really going out and grabbing a spot? There's hope yet!

[White Out 403]

something that maybe the sportsclub stats and these fancy stats playoff predictor is showing, maybe, is how hard it is to make up ground this late. with 3 point games making up 4-6 points is not easy. 7+ would be nearly impossible with less than 20 games I think. For example, Winnipeg can lose 10 of their next 17 games, go 7-5-5 and finish with 96 points... which would be almost a lock for playoffs.

I dont like the loser point, but if it gets the Jets in this year I won't complain.