[News] With the 54th overall pick the Flames select RW Hunter Smith

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Relative to what was available, I believe they were poor picks.

I believe goalies are complete wildcards and should not be drafted that high.

As for Smith, I'll be a little more fair and say that it wasn't a bad pick, but a disappointing one. I still think Jack Glover would have been a wise choice with that pick (or we could have picked Hickey at 54, Glover at 64).

Yawn.

[Ashasx]

What would you like me to say, MMF?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

(I've always felt that picking a goalie in the first two rounds is unjustifiable)

Carey Price
Tuuka Rask
Marc Andre Fleury
Devan Dubnyk
Corey Crawford
Roberto Luongo
Corey Schneider
Jonathan Bernier
John Gibson
Semyon Varlamov

...were selected in the first two rounds. Sounds pretty justifiable to me...the point of the draft is to get the right prospects before other teams do. Sure, there's plenty of Kipprusoffs, Ortios, Lacks etc out there too, just like there's a TJ Brodie for every Ekblad.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

What would you like me to say, MMF?

Most of the time, nothing.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Carey Price
Tuuka Rask
Marc Andre Fleury
Devan Dubnyk
Corey Crawford
Roberto Luongo
Corey Schneider
Jonathan Bernier
John Gibson
Semyon Varlamov

...were selected in the first two rounds. Sounds pretty justifiable to me...the point of the draft is to get the right prospects before other teams do. Sure, there's plenty of Kipprusoffs, Ortios, Lacks etc out there too, just like there's a TJ Brodie for every Ekblad.

If you really want to play this game, I can list just as many in rounds 3 and beyond that became fantastic goaltenders, and I can name even more that were drafted in rounds 1-2 that were complete busts.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Most of the time, nothing.

Can't go against groupthink, right? Too boring for you?

[JiriHrdina]

Take it to PM guys.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

If you really want to play this game, I can list just as many in rounds 3 and beyond that became fantastic goaltenders, and I can name even more that were drafted in rounds 1-2 that were complete busts.

So can I?

I can also do the same for every other position.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

So can I?

I can also do the same for every other position.

No, that's not how it works.

There is very strong correlation between the round a skater was picked and his likelihood of becoming an NHLer (or an impact player).

That relationship is not nearly as strong for goaltenders.

[polak]

Anyways, Hunter Smith was a bad pick and Burke should feel bad.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Carey Price
Tuuka Rask
Marc Andre Fleury
Devan Dubnyk
Corey Crawford
Roberto Luongo
Corey Schneider
Jonathan Bernier
John Gibson
Semyon Varlamov

...were selected in the first two rounds. Sounds pretty justifiable to me...the point of the draft is to get the right prospects before other teams do. Sure, there's plenty of Kipprusoffs, Ortios, Lacks etc out there too, just like there's a TJ Brodie for every Ekblad.

Still very risky to take a goalie that high, but since it was a weak draft it is more justifiable. It is simply way more difficult to project how good a goalie is going to be when he is 18 compared to a forward.

I think it is important to note that on your list only three of those goalies are actually starting for the team that drafted them. MAF and Price who are both top 5 picks and Crawford. So ya, drafting an 18 year old and developing him into your starter is insanely difficult. The Flames strategy of taking a goalie they like every second draft is definitely a good one and Ortio, Gilles, and McDonald all have starter potential still which is a great sign.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

That relationship is not nearly as strong for goaltenders.

So then why does it matter if they selected McDonald in the 2nd round? They liked him, they picked him.

The idea that there's a "risk" involved is silly. We just traded our 2011 #13 overall pick, a forward, for a 2nd round draft pick yesterday. There's all sorts of risk regardless.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I remember reading somewhere (maybe it was flamesnation) that if Kanzig becomes an NHLer, he would be one of the lowest junior scoring players ever to do so.

Odds already stacked against him.

Based on that one variable, yes.

Another variable is that he is 6'7". And that changes both the odds, and the payoff if he makes it.

The league isn't a collection of one type of player. Each team is an amalgamation of many different types of players filling many different roles.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

So then why does it matter if they selected McDonald in the 2nd round? They liked him, they picked him.

Because a team is far more likely to draft an NHL skater in the early rounds than in the later. Therefore, if you use one of your early picks on a goaltender, you then use a later pick on a skater.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Based on that one variable, yes.

Another variable is that he is 6'7". And that changes both the odds, and the payoff if he makes it.

The league isn't a collection of one type of player. Each team is an amalgamation of many different types of players filling many different roles.

Not that I want to discuss this much further, but how many 6'7" forwards do you see in the NHL today? How many besides Brian Boyle aren't plugs or enforcers?

[SuperMatt18]

Ashasx I think you just personally overvalue a certain type of player, the more flashy dynamic type that puts up lots of points.

Guys like Kanzig, Smith, etc are never going to impress you because you don't value strong bottom pairing or 3rd or 4th line guys. You think that you should always be drafting for top end skill and not to fill a lineup.

What you are missing though is that the really good teams do a great job of drafting and developing those guys, as well as the top 9 players.

L.A. has done it with guys like Clifford (2nd), King (4th), Nolan (7th) , Lewis (1st).

Chicago with guys like Bickell (2nd), Shaw (5th), Bolland (2nd) , Hjalmarsson (4th).

And plenty of others examples on teams like the Rangers, and Bruins.

The issue is that for you if a guy like Kanzig, or Smith, who likely tops out as a 3rd liner or a bottom pairing d-man is waste of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, when really it's not the case.

I tend to agree that goalies shouldn't be taken that early but the Flames did have an organizational need and MacDonald was seen as one of the best in his age group, so it might be a strategic pick to get him there. If you were to flip the Hickey and MacDonald picks I am sure you would have no issue with it but unlikely they could take Hickey in the 2nd and still have MacDonald in the 3rd.

[terminator]

But I was hoping for the wolf-hunter line.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Not that I want to discuss this much further, but how many 6'7" forwards do you see in the NHL today? How many besides Brian Boyle aren't plugs or enforcers?

Same amount of forwards Gaudreau's size before he was drafted.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Ashasx I think you just personally overvalue a certain type of player, the more flashy dynamic type that puts up lots of points.

I probably do, but I think that should be understandable.

I like it when teams go for homeruns at the draft. Why draft for 3rd and 4th line players when these are generally players you can pick up for free in free agency?

I mean, not many 4th line grinder types can be traded for 2nd round picks.

And even though, for example, the Jankowski pick isn't looking too great relative to the other choices at the time, I can still understand and appreciate the thought process behind it.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Not that I want to discuss this much further, but how many 6'7" forwards do you see in the NHL today? How many besides Brian Boyle aren't plugs or enforcers?

Martin Hanzal is the only other one that comes to mind.