Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[hwy19man]

After Saturday's games:

1. Winnipeg (30-20-11) 24 ROW, 71 pts
Vancouver (33-22-3) 30 ROW, 69 pts--second in Pacific Division
Los Angeles (28-18-12) 27 ROW, 68 pts--third in the Pacific Division
2. Calgary (32-23-4) 29 ROW, 68 pts--and fourth in Pacific Division
3. San Jose (30-23-8) 28 ROW, 68 pts--and fifth in the Pacific Division
4. Minnesota (30-21-7) 28 ROW, 67 pts
5. Dallas (27-23-9) 25 ROW, 63 pts
6. Colorado (25-23-11) 18 ROW, 61 pts

Kings won in regulation
Sharks lost in regulation
Jets and Stars lost in overtime

[killer_carlson]

all credit to LA for their patented "time to get down to business" run to sneak into the playoffs.

You think any of the top 4 seeds are looking to meet them in the first round?

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

all credit to LA for their patented "time to get down to business" run to sneak into the playoffs.

You think any of the top 4 seeds are looking to meet them in the first round?

What a nightmare for the Predators if they finish first in the West and their reward was hosting the Kings in the first round?

[Hells Bells]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

all credit to LA for their patented "time to get down to business" run to sneak into the playoffs.

You think any of the top 4 seeds are looking to meet them in the first round?

It'll be Calgary or Vancouver meeting LA in the 1st round IMO.

The Sharks are toast.

[Hells Bells]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

What a nightmare for the Predators if they finish first in the West and their reward was hosting the Kings in the first round?

2 of CGY/VAN/SJ would have to finish ahead of the Kings for that to happen.

I can't see it.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Hells Bells

It'll be Calgary or Vancouver meeting LA in the 1st round IMO.

The Sharks are toast.

So who goes on a big run for this to happen?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by T@T

So who goes on a big run for this to happen?

Wouldn't 2 of Calgary/Vancouver/LA have to finish 2/3 in the Pacific? That's very plausible...

[hwy19man]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

What a nightmare for the Predators if they finish first in the West and their reward was hosting the Kings in the first round?

I know you said if, but, the nightmare could happen to the Ducks or Blues instead, they are only four and five points back respectively of the Predators.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Wouldn't 2 of Calgary/Vancouver/LA have to finish 2/3 in the Pacific? That's very plausible...

In fact with the current standings the Canucks would play the Kings.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

In fact with the current standings the Canucks would play the Kings.

Flames have ROW tie-breaker on Kings, so it's Canucks-Flames right now. Kings are just in 3rd because of games in hand.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Flames have ROW tie-breaker on Kings, so it's Canucks-Flames right now. Kings are just in 3rd because of games in hand.

Games in hand are the first tie breaker. ROW is the second tie breaker.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Games in hand are the first tie breaker. ROW is the second tie breaker.

Games in hand don't exist come playoffs.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Games in hand don't exist come playoffs.

I'm talking about the current standings, not trying to predict the future. I'll leave that to you.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I'm talking about the current standings, not trying to predict the future. I'll leave that to you.

Who's predicting the future? It's simple logic. To talk about playoff matchups based on current standings you have to base it on 'if the season ended today'. In which case Cgy would sit ahead of LA.

[The Fonz]

I really wish NHL standings were based on points percentage.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Who's predicting the future? It's simple logic. To talk about playoff matchups based on current standings you have to base it on 'if the season ended today'. In which case Cgy would sit ahead of LA.

I'm trying to be polite here but it's hard to do around here sometimes.

Tie-Breaking procedure If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order:

• 1. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
• 2. The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout. This figure is reflected in the ROW column.

So if the season ended today, LA would finish third in the Pacific.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I'm trying to be polite here but it's hard to do around here sometimes.

So if the season ended today, LA would finish third in the Pacific.

lol

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Dan02

I don't doubt you try to remain objective in your feelings towards teams, but it's obvious you're not objective in which stats to weight in your model, with a bias towards the shiny new stats because well they're shiny and new and all the cool kids use it.

1. The chart is Micah McCurdy's, not mine.

2. The responses are absurd here - I was responding to a post that suggested that the only things that matter are points and games remaining. That's obviously wrong.

3. The McCurdy chart does in fact weight many factors including home / away games, strength of opponent, and IIRC also CHIP. So those factors are included.

4. I'm not going to bother arguing the usefulness of possession statistics as a predictive measure with anyone on here. At this point people who dismiss those metrics are the hockey equivalent of the anti-vaccination folks. Believe what you want, if you're happier living in ignorance, enjoy.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

4. I'm not going to bother arguing the usefulness of possession statistics as a predictive measure with anyone on here. At this point people who dismiss those metrics are the hockey equivalent of the anti-vaccination folks. Believe what you want, if you're happier living in ignorance, enjoy.

The best predictor of future success in hockey is goal differential. Puck possession proxies are not even close. There are only two reasons why people muck about with the proxies: (1) they are available at a stage of the season when the sample size is too small for goal differential to be useful, and (2) they are new and shiny and have been tagged by silly people as ‘advanced stats’.

I get the strong impression that some hockey stats people have this romanticized image of themselves as Bill James, fighting the good fight against the reactionary old boys, and think that Corsi and Fenwick are the equivalent of OBP and slugging percentage – wonderful new statistical tools that will totally replace traditional understanding of the game. Maybe one day, given actual data on puck possession and real-time tracking of every player on the ice, such tools will be developed. But they don't exist yet. The Bill James of hockey doesn't exist yet, and the ‘old boys’ are already hiring people to do the most advanced statistical analyses they can come up with.

I think nearly every person on this forum, including probably all those who have played hockey themselves, understands that Corsi and Fenwick don't capture the whole game or even the biggest part of the game. So basically, you've just called everyone on CP Jenny McCarthy. Would you like ketchup for that foot?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I'm trying to be polite here but it's hard to do around here sometimes.

So if the season ended today, LA would finish third in the Pacific.

The thing is that the season cannot possibly end today, because not all teams have played equal numbers of games. If for some reason the NHL had to cut the season short, they would have to come up with some ad-hoc rule to compensate for different numbers of games played – and that rule probably would not be the current tie-breakers for standings in mid-season. If it were, they would be opening themselves up to seven-figure lawsuits from teams that did not get a fair chance at playoff berths because of the unequal schedule.

Which pretty much takes out ‘if the season ended today’ as a valid argument.