Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I'm still of the mindset that 94 to 95 points gets you into the playoffs. Right now LA is the second wildcard team on a 95 point pace.

If that plays out the Flames really need to find a 14 win equivalent over the last 24 games

that would actually give them 96 points, which should be safe considering the ROW stats.

Agreed - all this scoreboard watching is a waste of time, in my opinion. We just need to get to 96 points to be pretty much guaranteed a spot.

Sportsclub stats backs this up (over millions of simulations)

96 points = 95%
95 points = 90%
94 points = 79%
93 points = 63%
92 points = 46%

Basically get to 94 for a decent shot, and 96 to be virtually guaranteed. Everything else that happens with other teams is really just noise and we truly control our own destiny.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by edslunch

What are the plus numbers?

Games above .500

[Beatle17]

Winnipeg has 16 shoot out wins. They shouldn't even be in contention when compared to the other teams. God I hate the shootout

[Resolute 14]

They actually have six shootout wins.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

They actually have six shootout wins.

Haha I thought that seemed outrageous

[Obsidian]

Why does Vancouver have such a sparse schedule?

I hate this disparity in games played because it throws things off, and I'm pretty sure we've been waiting for Vancouver to catch up to us in games since November.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by Obsidian

Why does Vancouver have such a sparse schedule?

I hate this disparity in games played because it throws things off, and I'm pretty sure we've been waiting for Vancouver to catch up to us in games since November.

Yup its BS. At times the Flames have been up 4 games on them this season. Not to mention all the 2nd half of back to back teams that just played the Flames.

[Beatle17]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

They actually have six shootout wins.

Sorry, typing when I was tired.

[hwy19man]

After Thursday's games:

1. Winnipeg (30-20-10) 24 ROW, 70 pts
Vancouver (33-21-3) 30 ROW, 69 pts--second in Pacific Division
Calgary (32-22-4) 29 ROW, 68 pts--third in the Pacific Division
2. San Jose (30-22-8) 28 ROW, 68 pts--and fourth in Pacific Division
3. Los Angeles (27-18-12) 26 ROW, 66 pts--and fifth in the Pacific Division
4. Minnesota (29-21-7) 27 ROW, 65 pts
5. Dallas (27-23-8) 25 ROW, 62 pts
6. Colorado (24-23-11) 17 ROW, 59 pts

Sharks won in regulation
Stars and Jets lost in regulation
Canucks won in the shootout

[Dan02]

I'm of the opinion one of Winnipeg, Minnesota or SJ will make it. Dallas and Colorado aren't. Flames Vancouver and LA will.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Obsidian

Why does Vancouver have such a sparse schedule?

I hate this disparity in games played because it throws things off, and I'm pretty sure we've been waiting for Vancouver to catch up to us in games since November.

Why worry? We will be more rested going into the playoffs.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Dan02

I'm of the opinion one of Winnipeg, Minnesota or SJ will make it. Dallas and Colorado aren't. Flames Vancouver and LA will.

I'm counting the Sharks out and LA in.

That leaves Minnesota, Winnipeg, Calgary and Vancouver in contention for three spots. But mostly I think Minnesota or Winnipeg will fall out of the picture.

[Vulcan]

I'd like to get ahead of the Jets. With the Kings and Wild on the move up, I don't have a lot of confidence we can finish ahead of them.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by Dan02

I'm of the opinion one of Winnipeg, Minnesota or SJ will make it. Dallas and Colorado aren't. Flames Vancouver and LA will.

Originally Posted by Itse

I'm counting the Sharks out and LA in.

That leaves Minnesota, Winnipeg, Calgary and Vancouver in contention for three spots. But mostly I think Minnesota or Winnipeg will fall out of the picture.

I'll agree that the Avs are now longshots to make it. The Stars still have a twinkle and are within striking distance of 8th place. I say the Jets and Canucks won't make it.

[Resolute 14]

Crippling loss for Winnipeg last night. But they are a team that has felt like it should be falling out of the race since November, but are still hanging around.

Brutal night for us on the schedule today. Minnesota and Vancouver have freebies tonight, so we really need to pull out a great effort vs. the Ducks.

[Huntingwhale]

Biggest game of the year for us. A loss to the Ducks sets the table for the gap to shrink even more. And you just know with how the hockey gods look down on us that we aren't going to get any help whatsoever.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

[Street Pharmacist]

This is what happens when corsi predictive power gets inappropriately applied. The predictive power of corsi becomes a much smaller factor compared to points % as the season progresses. It also completely missed strength of schedule. Inflexible corsi graph in Inflexible

[Buff]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

How does Dallas have a higher % than Calgary?

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Buff

How does Dallas have a higher % than Calgary?

Ineffective math.