Ukraine Presidential Crackdown Violence. Russia Invades Ukraine

[nik-]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

People will eat a lot of errrr poop if they see their leaders winning.

Russians deserve their leaders. They eat the strongman crap up, so their quality of life is justified imo.

[northcrunk]

Originally Posted by nik-

Russians deserve their leaders. They eat the strongman crap up, so their quality of life is justified imo.

They sure do. It's really going to hurt most of the population even if the elite don't get hurt so bad. Chances are though in a few months they will start to sweat and Putin may lose support. He's pretty much set Russia up as a dictatorship now so getting rid of him may require assasination.

[nik-]

haha, this would be an interesting strategy. Lets get that sectarian Civil War up to a full boil ... screw this simmer.

http://www.businessinsider.com/russi...ukraine-2015-2

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by BusinessInsider

"We can also encourage Iran, or even back Iran in a fight — a military operation — with Saudi Arabia, so then the prices for oil will skyrocket," the source said

Yes please. We've been jonesing for some instability in the OPEC nations for a while.

[worth]

Georgia is dying to become a member of the EU and NATO. There are EU flags everywhere in Tbilisi. They absolutely hate Russians and if Russia invades "again" they will fight I'm sure.

There's actually an EU monitoring agency that drives around and keeps tabs on Russia's incursions from 2008. You can see these EU Jeeps everywhere, but I'm sure they'll gtfo once the tanks show up.

I really hope it doesn't escalate to that. I spent 2 months in Georgia last fall. It is an amazing place. Highly recommend visiting in the spring or fall months. See it before the Russians get there.

[Thor]

Its pretty clear Russia is an authoritarian regime, a banana republic, an oligarch ruled society with mafia's that have far reaching power.

It all starts with Putin and the Oligarchs:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/putins-way/

[FlameOn]

The US is going to start training Ukrainian troops soon as per a previous deal. This will probably escalate things further

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — The U.S. military plans in March to start training Ukrainian soldiers who are battling Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, a top U.S. military commander in Europe said Wednesday.

U.S. Army Europe Commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges said a battalion of U.S. soldiers would train three battalions of Ukrainians from the Interior Ministry at the Yavariv training center in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv.

Hodges' remarks came amid an intensification of fighting in eastern Ukraine, and as French, German, Ukrainian and Russian leaders met Wednesday in Minsk, Belarus, for peace talks whose success is far from certain.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/1af37...commander-says

[CaptainCrunch]

The Russian reaction to that news should be really interesting. The American's know that they can't put their troops on the ground in the Ukraine, without causing a holy hell storm reaction from Putin.

I would think that he would react strongly to seeing Ukrainian troops cruising around in M1 tanks or flying F-18 Super Hornets, so arming them might not be a great move.

Nor can the American's afford to do nothing beyond useless diplomacy because no one will trust the American's again if they abandon the Ukraine after the disarmament treaty that was signed in I think 94

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The Russian reaction to that news should be really interesting. The American's know that they can't put their troops on the ground in the Ukraine, without causing a holy hell storm reaction from Putin.

I would think that he would react strongly to seeing Ukrainian troops cruising around in M1 tanks or flying F-18 Super Hornets, so arming them might not be a great move.

Nor can the American's afford to do nothing beyond useless diplomacy because no one will trust the American's again if they abandon the Ukraine after the disarmament treaty that was signed in I think 94

Couldn't they just employ the same strategy Russia is using here? Oh... those stinger missiles? You can buy those on any street corner. In Afghanistan the US provided stinger missiles, loads of arms and funding under black budget programs. I don't see how it'd be too much of a problem to send in the Javelins, etc. + non heavy weapons. As long as there are no vacationing soldiers or Abrams, it'd be fine as there's still plausible deniability.

Russia in any case have already sent in troops and loads of tanks afterall.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Couldn't they just employ the same strategy Russia is using here? Oh... those stinger missiles? You can buy those on any street corner. In Afghanistan the US provided stinger missiles, loads of arms and funding under black budget programs. I don't see how it'd be too much of a problem to send in the Javelins, etc. + non heavy weapons. As long as there are no vacationing soldiers or Abrams, it'd be fine as there's still plausible deniability.

Russia in any case have already sent in troops and loads of tanks afterall.

American troops on vacation doing volunteer work in their spare time. Fight fire with fire!

[CaptainCrunch]

Ah the Korean War strategy when the North Korean airforce had a lot of Russian volunteers flying for them.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

American troops on vacation doing volunteer work in their spare time. Fight fire with fire!

Their rifles and tanks would never make it past Russian Ukrainian Airport Security.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

On the heels of the US and NATO discussing whether to arm Ukraine or not, Russia is threatening "all-out war" if the US decides to.



http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31356372

This is posturing. Russia isn't going to go to war with NATO. It's a conflict they can't win. I guess one could argue that they could possibly have the Chinese on their side, but I don't think China wants to get involved.

[CaptainCrunch]

I would argue that Russia is in a better position to win tactically then the West is. They have the greater correlation of forces, and a shorter supply line. They also have the line in the sand in terms of what happens in terms of attacks on Russian soil or on russian citizens.

Putin is also banking that Obama will back down.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I would argue that Russia is in a better position to win tactically then the West is. They have the greater correlation of forces, and a shorter supply line. They also have the line in the sand in terms of what happens in terms of attacks on Russian soil or on russian citizens.

Putin is also banking that Obama will back down.

So where is that line for the West though? Say Ukraine sues for peace and a year down the road Kharkov, Latvia and Moldova "rebels" start showing up. Would that warrant a NATO military response then? Or will those just be ceded again because of Russian/Soviet sphere of influence?

A show of force or clandestine involvement (ala Soviet Afghanistan) is what Putin isn't counting on and is probably the only thing that can, at the very least, stall Putin's actions in the area. What else can make things so costly for Russia that they reconsider their current course of action?

[T@T]

Putin probably wants a war at this point, With the state of oil, the ruble and western sanctions he's in big trouble with corporate Russia these days.

I would bet he's somewhat sleeping with one eye open.

[FlameOn]

Putin signs another peace agreement that withdraws their tanks and troops. Rebels have also ratified the deal. The decentralization is of the contested regions is a bit of a problem, so they'll "self" govern but will effectively be under Ukrainian control?

The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France announced that a ceasefire would begin on 15 February.

The deal also includes weapon withdrawals and prisoner exchanges, but key issues remain to be settled.

The pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine have signed the agreement. Thousands of people died in almost a year of fighting in the region.

The latest agreement includes:
*Ceasefire to begin at 00:01 local time on 15 February
*Heavy weapons to be pulled out from conflict zones, beginning on 17 February and completed in two weeks
*All prisoners to be released; amnesty for those involved in fighting
*Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory. Disarmament of all illegal groups
*Ukraine to allow resumption of normal life in rebel areas, by lifting restrictions
*Constitutional reform to enable decentralisation for rebel regions by the end of 2015
*Ukraine to control border with Russia if conditions met by the end of 2015

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31435812

[Ducay]

Only Russia can sign a ceasefire, all while denying being involved at all.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Only Russia can sign a ceasefire, all while denying being involved at all.

Another case of distracting with one hand while hitting with the other. Another 50 tanks and 40 missile launchers moved into overnight Ukraine while Russia "talked". Putin did make the bold claim he could take Ukraine in days if he wanted to and the peace treaty isn't till the 15th. Not sure if he's going to continue or this is just part of the negotiating tactics.

About 50 tanks, 40 missile systems, and 40 armored vehicles crossed overnight into eastern Ukraine from Russia via the Izvaryne border crossing into the separatist Luhansk region, a Kiev military spokesman said on Thursday.

Armored columns of Russian-speaking soldiers without insignias have advanced around Debaltseve, which has seen heavy fighting recently.

Area under Russian control


http://uk.businessinsider.com/ukrain...#ixzz3RY6qg9uZ

[FlamesAddiction]

Sounds promising in the short term any way. But I don't think Russia will stop until they have a land connection to Crimea. |It's just going to take them longer than they hoped originally.

I hate to say it, but it is almost time that Ukraine surrenders and starts negotiating terms, because Russia will get it eventually anyway and no one will stop them.

• Cede the territory in exchange for debt forgiveness,
• compensation to Ukrainians that wish to relocate and don't want Russian citizenship,
• a permanent and enforceable peace treaty, and
• the acknowledgement for Ukraine to join NATO/EU without Russian interference.

Eventually they are going to lose the territory and won't get anything for it, or it will be susceptible to rebel extortions forever.