[GDT] Flames vs. Sharks, 8 pm, SN1

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Flames: 28-20-3, 59 points, 3rd in the Pacific, 7th in the West, 15th in NHL.

Sharks: 27-17-7, 61 points, 2nd in the Pacific, 5th in the West, 12th in NHL.


It’s probably safe to assume that with the Anaheim Ducks 11 points ahead of us (even after 2 straight losses), 2nd spot in the Pacific is probably the best possibility for a playoff position we could hope for…if we make the playoffs that is. Tonight is a battle for that spot, as the Sharks come into town after eeking out a point against the Oilers in the “Shark Tank”. The Flames own the third tie-breaker against the Sharks, as they both have played the same amount of games and have the same amount of Regulation/OT Wins (who would have said that at the beginning of the year?), the third tie-breaker being points earned against opponent. The Flames have 4 points against San Jose to their 3, with tonight’s game, and one more to be played within a week, but a win tonight would secure at least a tie in the head to head matchup points against a divisional opponent that’s been neck and neck with the Flames nearly the entire season. We can talk about beating the Canucks or the Oilers because we dislike them, but this is probably our biggest divisional rival these days, and every point against them matters.

It’s surprising, to be sure, but when you look at the performance of these two teams and the way they play, it’s not that shocking to see the Flames near the top of the division. They own the best goal differential in the Pacific at +18 (next closest is Anaheim at +13), and surprisingly the Sharks have only a +3 differential, yet have had similar success to the Flames. They both have comparable home and road records (Flames 14-10-2/14-10-1, Sharks 14-8-4/13-9-3), comparable offensive production (Flames 2.86 GF/G, Sharks 2.76 GF/G), and comparable defensive games (Flames 2.55 GA/G, Sharks 2.65 GA/G), but the big categories are where the similarities end. The Sharks have the 8th best powerplay at 21.3%, compared to Calgary’s 21st ranked 17.1%. They have a PK that works at an 82% efficiency (14th ranked) compared to the Flames terrible 26th ranked PK (77.3%). San Jose is also the league’s 7th best faceoff team at 51.8% compared to the Flames pitiful 47.5% (27th ranked).

Oddly enough, these are both teams that have strong and weak periods. The Flames and Sharks have 44 and 42 goals against respectively in the 1st period, and while the Sharks have managed 38 first period goals, that’s still a -4 differential, but the Flames have just 30 first period goals for a -14 differential. The 2nd period is the Sharks strongest in which they’ve scored 53 goals to 45 against for a +8 differential, well above their season average. The Flames have been pretty poor in the 2nd with 43 goals for and 51 goals against for a -8 differential, but still not nearly as bad as the first. Here comes the big equalizer, the 3rd period. The Sharks have scored 48 goals for to 45 goals against for a measly +3 differential, but that’s just a little better than the league average. The Flames however lead the league in both goals for AND goals against in the 3rd, with 66 goals for and 33 goals against for a whopping +33 goal differential. I’ve truly never seen anything like it before. This team literally only needs to play one period to win a game. It’s crazy. If perchance the Flames can only manage a tie after 60, I’d take that too, as the Flames own a 10-3 OT/SO record compared to the Sharks 4-7 record in the same category. Simply put, the Flames are clutch this year.

Watch out for Joe Pavelski tonight, as he's caught fire of late. 3 points against Edmonton last game and 8 points in his last 6 games. Even scarier is Jumbo Joe, who has 10 points over the same time frame. In fact, the top 5 of Pavelski, Thornton, Couture, Burns, and Marleau have all been good lately, and all year. So good, that of the team's 386 points scored, those 5 account for 53% of the team's production. Obviously it will be difficult to shut every one of them down, you just hope that they all don't have a big night against you and keep the rest of the team off the scoreboard.

Lineup notes: Backlund looks like he will return to the lineup for the Flames after missing last game with an illness. Wolf, Glencross, and Smid remain on the IR for the foreseeable future. Baertschi, Granlund, and Wotherspoon are the likely healthy scratches. The Sharks will be without Tommy Wingels, Justin Braun, and now Tye McGinn who went down the other night with an injury.


Flames
Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Bouma-Backlund-Jones
Raymond-Jooris-Colborne
Bollig-Stajan-Byron

Giordano-Brodie
Russell-Wideman
Diaz-Engelland

Hiller


Sharks
Karlsson-Thornton-Pavelski
Marleau-Couture-Nieto
Hertl-Sheppard-Goodrow
Scott-Desjardins-Kennedy

Vlasic-Burns
Dillon-Tennyson
Irwin-Hannan

Niemi




Go Flames Go!!!

[malcolmk14]

Huge game tonight, 2nd in the Pacific division is up for grabs!

3-1 Flames with goals from Monahan, Bollig and Gaudreau

[BigErnSalute_16]

I usually just hit thanks, but I thought I'd write it out this time. Great write up, as usual, Cali. Thanks. That +33 in the third is unbelievable. By this point other teams must be scared going into the third with a 1 goal lead

[Itse]

Keeping Wotherspoon up without letting him play is starting to seem weird to me.

Other than that, another big night. (I think calling these "must win" games is silly, because you can't expect to win every "four point" game.)

[cupraisedn89]

"66 goals for and 33 goals against" during the 3rd period. Wow! What an awesome stat!
As usual, love reading your GDT's Cali!!

GO FLAMES GO!!

[Puppet Guy]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

this photo just made my day.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Puppet Guy

this photo just made my day.

Yup…I see you there.

Also just thought it was a great photo. The lady in the stands and Jooris both have the same expression on their faces.

[Puppet Guy]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Yup…I see you there.

Also just thought it was a great photo. The lady in the stands and Jooris both have the same expression on their faces.

that ain't no lady - that's Mrs. Puppet!

Every time someone hit the boards in front of us that night she jumped.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Puppet Guy

that ain't no lady - that's Mrs. Puppet!

Every time someone hit the boards in front of us that night she jumped.

Even the mouth directly behind her is wide open. Instead of the 'wave' it looks like this section does a moving grimace.

[Rick M.]

I expect the Sharks will be coming hard after the result in Edmonton last night.

[Yrebmi]

Calgary record in the third is awesome.
What is it in OT? Must be pretty good too

[mrkajz44]

Excited for this tilt - and with no work tomorrow morning I can enjoy the late start without dreading waking up early tomorrow.

Win-win!

[Lanny'sDaMan]

This is the first time since 04 I have honestly believed this team could beat anyone. Previous seasons going into a game like tonight would have me all wound up waiting for the 2 goal deficit and inevitable collapse as the team couldn't come back from that. EVER.

Then there is this year's team who I am always so excited to see play, and whom I have no end of faith in being able to win any game even when down by three. God is it good to be one of the Faithful

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Lanny'sDaMan

This is the first time since 04 I have honestly believed this team could beat anyone. Previous seasons going into a game like tonight would have me all wound up waiting for the 2 goal deficit and inevitable collapse as the team couldn't come back from that. EVER.

Then there is this year's team who I am always so excited to see play, and whom I have no end of faith in being able to win any game even when down by three. God is it good to be one of the Faithful

I mostly agree with you. But with an asterisk for games in Anaheim.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Puppet Guy

that ain't no lady - that's Mrs. Puppet!

Every time someone hit the boards in front of us that night she jumped.

Hah, reminds me of a Lyle Lovett song, "She's no lady, she's my wife."

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

Calgary record in the third is awesome.
What is it in OT? Must be pretty good too

Well simple deduction says that it would be their OT/SO record minus their SO record, cuz you know, you can only score 1 goal in OT either way. So the answer would be 7-2, still pretty dang good.

[handgroen]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

Calgary Flames Playoff Chances
Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 79.8%
59 points 28 20-3

A win tonight moves the flames + 4.2%
a loss moves them - 7.3%


also possible first round implications all over tonight's game.
let's stay up late and wake up happy tomorrow

[YYC in LAX]

Huge game against Jumbo Joe and the Sharks.

Hoping for a big win tonight. If we win in regulation, I'd have my #### out. I'd have my #### out, strokin' it.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Puppet Guy

that ain't no lady - that's Mrs. Puppet!

Every time someone hit the boards in front of us that night she jumped.

Bahaha that is awesome. I can see the puppet in your hand!!

[ForeverFlameFan]

I hope we can play another 60 minute game, those are the ones I enjoy the most.

[BloodFetish]

4-0 win if we face left shark. 4-1 loss if we face right shark.