2015 NFL Playoff thread

[Red John]

Originally Posted by Flabbibulin

The key for the Pats will be running the ball and short 5 yard throws, trusting their receivers to get big YAC.

If that's their gameplan they are going to lose this game badly.

You don't beat Seattle with dink and dunk - you have to run the ball on them combined with deep shots.

New England really doesn't match up well with Seattle and it's amazing to see bettors not learn from last year. For the 2nd straight year Seattle started off as a favourite only to have the line swing the other way. Guess defense isn't sexy with the squares but you can bet all the sharps are on the Seahawks again and anytime you can pick the better team to win and get a couple of points on top of it in what figures to be a pro-Seahawk crowd it's a good move.

Oh and might not be a bad idea to take the under as well.

[Flabbibulin]

Originally Posted by Red John

If that's their gameplan they are going to lose this game badly.

You don't beat Seattle with dink and dunk - you have to run the ball on them combined with deep shots.

New England really doesn't match up well with Seattle and it's amazing to see bettors not learn from last year. For the 2nd straight year Seattle started off as a favourite only to have the line swing the other way. Guess defense isn't sexy with the squares but you can bet all the sharps are on the Seahawks again and anytime you can pick the better team to win and get a couple of points on top of it in what figures to be a pro-Seahawk crowd it's a good move.

Oh and might not be a bad idea to take the under as well.

The Patriots don't go deep often and the Seahawks don't allow deep throws. Not sure why they would suddenly switch to this in the most important game? Unless it becomes apparent that Sherman and/or Thomas are well below 100%. The Patriots are an extended drive team and since the Seahawks D is so good at stopping intermediate passes to the outside, the Pats are going to hit them up the middle on runs and short throws.

[Senator Clay Davis]

New England has absolutely no one at all who can challenge the Seahawks outside. Edelman, Amendola, LaFell are all #2 WRs who cannot stretch the field. The Seahawks had zero issue locking up Cobb and Nelson, they'll easily shut down the Pats receivers. And since they are so little issue, they'll be able to double team Gronk with a linebacker and a safety. New England will need a huge running day to get some traction offensively.

Then Seattle presents a horrible matchup for New England on the other side too. New England can be gashed by teams committed to the run. I'll be surprised if Wilson makes more than 20 throws, and I expect the Seahawks to have at least 200 yards rushing. Not sure what the record for fewest passing yards in a Super Bowl is but wouldn't be surprised at all if Seattle takes a run at it.

End of the day this is almost the same matchup as last year, but Denver had better weapons and New England is better coached. Doesn't change how dominant the Seahawks defense is. Seattle 27 New England 10.

[Pagal4321]

Oh look, a current NFL player weighs in on Deflategate and all of it's complete and utter ridiculousness.

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/deflategate/

I'm glad to that talk here has shifted to the game itself, wish the media would do the same.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Red John

If that's their gameplan they are going to lose this game badly.

You don't beat Seattle with dink and dunk - you have to run the ball on them combined with deep shots.

New England really doesn't match up well with Seattle and it's amazing to see bettors not learn from last year. For the 2nd straight year Seattle started off as a favourite only to have the line swing the other way. Guess defense isn't sexy with the squares but you can bet all the sharps are on the Seahawks again and anytime you can pick the better team to win and get a couple of points on top of it in what figures to be a pro-Seahawk crowd it's a good move.

Oh and might not be a bad idea to take the under as well.

Is it me or have the playoffs been insanely easy to bet this year? I think the only game I whiffed on was Pittsburgh/Baltimore. But yeah, I took the Seahawks right as the line opened. Guess I should've waited, but I'm not overly concerned.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Is it me or have the playoffs been insanely easy to bet this year? I think the only game I whiffed on was Pittsburgh/Baltimore. But yeah, I took the Seahawks right as the line opened. Guess I should've waited, but I'm not overly concerned.

Depends what you mean by extremely easy to bet. Are you playing the moneyline or the spread?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Depends what you mean by extremely easy to bet. Are you playing the moneyline or the spread?

Spread.

[Red John]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Is it me or have the playoffs been insanely easy to bet this year? I think the only game I whiffed on was Pittsburgh/Baltimore. But yeah, I took the Seahawks right as the line opened. Guess I should've waited, but I'm not overly concerned.

Not just you. Also am sitting at 9-1 against the spread these playoffs, only miss being the Broncos game which in hindsight was a poor choice and a bit of a homer pick.

Probably going to play a few dumb prop bets just for fun. Already have my eye on a few that look juicy. Picking just the winner gets boring in Super Bowl.

[Red John]

Originally Posted by Flabbibulin

The Patriots don't go deep often and the Seahawks don't allow deep throws. Not sure why they would suddenly switch to this in the most important game? Unless it becomes apparent that Sherman and/or Thomas are well below 100%. The Patriots are an extended drive team and since the Seahawks D is so good at stopping intermediate passes to the outside, the Pats are going to hit them up the middle on runs and short throws.

Actually the Seahawks are quite vulnerable against the deep ball. Thing is other teams don't get the opportunity to try it often since the Hawks do well at getting pressure on the QB. But even Sherman is pretty vulnerable deep if you can get off his jams on the line.

It's not the way the Patriots play but they need to if they want a chance to win. Any team thats given Seattle trouble did so by running the ball well and mixing in some deep throws. Belichick has always game-planned well and changed his offensive strategy to suit the defense he's facing so would be very surprised if they continue to try and dink/dunk all game.

Seattle's D will eat that alive - especially with Chancellor playing in the robber position. Mebane is out. Patriots best hope is running Blount 25 times and taking some shots - but you have to wonder if they have the personnel to even do that.

[KelVarnsen]

Because Roger Goodell...

https://www.facebook.com/AdamSchefte...97847116934597

[Flabbibulin]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

New England has absolutely no one at all who can challenge the Seahawks outside. Edelman, Amendola, LaFell are all #2 WRs who cannot stretch the field. The Seahawks had zero issue locking up Cobb and Nelson, they'll easily shut down the Pats receivers. And since they are so little issue, they'll be able to double team Gronk with a linebacker and a safety. New England will need a huge running day to get some traction offensively.

Then Seattle presents a horrible matchup for New England on the other side too. New England can be gashed by teams committed to the run. I'll be surprised if Wilson makes more than 20 throws, and I expect the Seahawks to have at least 200 yards rushing. Not sure what the record for fewest passing yards in a Super Bowl is but wouldn't be surprised at all if Seattle takes a run at it.

End of the day this is almost the same matchup as last year, but Denver had better weapons and New England is better coached. Doesn't change how dominant the Seahawks defense is. Seattle 27 New England 10.

Not a lot of love for a team that was #1 in offence until the final week (a meaningless game w/ resting starters), that plowed through the AFC championship. Regardless of the last 5 minutes, the Seahawks O struggled big time in the NFC championship and are coming in with questionable injuries to their two key defensive players. And to be honest, I am really not sure how anyone can refer to Edelman as a #2 type WR. And I think the "Edelman is made by Brady" argument is kind of pointless- the fact is that Edelman is playing with Brady, so it is irrelevant what he might be able to do with another QB. No argument though that they are not great at stretching the field- hasn't been a strength of theirs since Moss.

Everyone knows this isn't the same one sided NE team from 2011. A much improved, probably above average defense, and a healthy offence.

I'm certainly not underestimating Seattle, but no way NE only puts up 10.

I will go Pats 27 Seattle 17.

Originally Posted by Red John

Actually the Seahawks are quite vulnerable against the deep ball. Thing is other teams don't get the opportunity to try it often since the Hawks do well at getting pressure on the QB. But even Sherman is pretty vulnerable deep if you can get off his jams on the line

How do we know that Seattle is vulnerable against the deep ball if opposing teams were only 2 for 5 in that category this year? Certainly I can see that argument being made if it is based on the possible injuries to the Seahawks secondary. I'm not saying we aren't going to see the attempts by McDaniels and Brady- especially once we see how Sherman and Thomas are holding up. And there are always free plays on defensive penalties at the line. Either way, I am not sure the deep ball is ever really counted as a strategy? Even teams that go to it often only do so in what- 1 in every 10 throws?

[Senator Clay Davis]

The Broncos had, by virtually all advance metrics, the greatest offense of all-time last year. Seattle held them to 8 points (in garbage time to boot). This is a historically great defense we're watching, maybe even the best ever. It's not disrespect to New England so much as it's supreme respect for the Seahawks defense. The fact that New England will primarily be looking to move the ball with passes of 10 yards or less is going to get them eaten alive by that defense. Seattle could have an awful offensive game for sure, but I doubt New England scores more than 17 points.

[Flabbibulin]

^^^^ And Im sure others will disagree, but I think the Patriots response to deflategate is a big intangible in all this. Think the Patriots response the week after the KC loss. They know how to use these things to motivate them.

[MacDaddy77]

I fully expect patriots first play of the game to be a 50+ yard pass attempt. kind of a shot across the bow. to say "we're here to play and we're not scared of your defense"

It'll be sweet if I'm right and it goes for 6!!!

[Sylvanfan]

Green Bay has a pretty effective offence, and even with all those turn overs had 16 points to show for it in the first half, and than pretty much shut down the rest of the game.

Seattle does have a really dominating defence and Bobby Wagner to me is the guy that makes it go. The Chiefs absolutely gashed them in the run game when him and Bennet were out and only threw 16 passes. Since Wagner came back the Seahawks D has not been giving up much of anything to anyone.

[Pagal4321]

The battle of NE O vs. SEA D essentially rests on Gronkowski and how his routes are schemed against whoever is covering him.

TE's have had success against Seattle if they can exploit certain match ups (see: Antonio Gates).

[browna]

The only time Rogers went deep was when he had free plays (or thought he did...one of them wasn't, and was a Sherman INT). With the pass rush with Avril, Bennett, Irvin, and mixing in other guys like Schofield, they can force the QB into a pass that second or so earlier. Athletic LB's that can keep up with most WR's, let alone TE's, makes the passing window tighter, as do CB's and safeties who are the top overall secondary in the league and always looking for the ball, or a big hit.

But, like SD early in the year, GB did the dink and dunk two weeks ago and try to make it 3rd and 3 most sets, and then have to covert those, and keep Seattle's defense on the field. That is the key...not so much to wear down the SEA defense (it worked in SD because of the heat), but because last week showed that Wilson (who had a rough game coming) takes a while to get in sync. Toss in an INT and a KR fumble, and they were really behind it.

Recall for all the domination Seattle had in that SB last year on defense and offense, they only had FG's to show for it after 1Q...the Malcom Smith INT TD and then the Harvin kickoff in the second half put it out of reach....all meaning that the offense needs to get going, and it usually takes the better half of the game.

Seattle is great at making adjustments at halftime. They have look fairly ordinary many times, or, if looking good, have come up short of scoring as many points as they have should've. But it seems after they get past halftime, the playbook opens up and there are different looks than they show in the first half.

Wagner, Wright, Thomas and Chancellor will match up with Gronk...recall the two Thomas' and the Welker last year. All the talk in the SB was how was Seattle going to defend the "natural" pick play....well, Welker got set on his butt early, and then again early in the second half, and that was that. Julius Thomas didn't want to run the seam.

Big thing over last year; Belichek will be better prepared than Fox last year was for both sides of the ball, and will take more risks (not really going out a limb here) than McCarthy did 10 days ago, at key moments.

But, as all football games go, turnovers and special teams will play their part. Seattle no longer has Harvin, sometimes using a rookie WR, but more often using the unexciting but sure handed Bryan Walters to get the token 6 yards.

Wilson can't play as poorly as he did last week, or as he did for large stretches of the year, he's got to get into the game early and use his feet early. His TE's have to get free (still miss Zach Miller) as the third look for Wilson, and of course Lynch has to keep churning away even without early success.

Seattle's defense has to play the way they always do (they've done so game in and game out the last 2 seasons), and just hope Thomas and Sherman are 75% or better so they can't get totally exploited.

[lifetime_flamesfan]

Apparently Sherman's GF is due to give birth on Sunday. There's even talk that he could miss the game (although I highly doubt it). They even have his GF in Arizona in case she goes into labor.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by MacDaddy77

I fully expect patriots first play of the game to be a 50+ yard pass attempt. kind of a shot across the bow. to say "we're here to play and we're not scared of your defense"

It'll be sweet if I'm right and it goes for 6!!!

Yup and it will be against Sherman.

Personally I think Brady will find away to pick apart Seattle's D, I predict a monster second half of the game by Gronkowski and Edelman.

In the end, not even close ....27-13 Pats

My bets (so far)

Parlay:
Pats win/under(47.5)

$300.00 wager returns $710.00

MVP:
$50.00 on Brady returns $137.50
$50.00 on Gronkowski returns $450.00

[CedarMeter]

Originally Posted by T@T

$300.00 wager returns $710.00

MVP:
$50.00 on Brady returns $137.50
$50.00 on Gronkowski returns $450.00

Geez you can bet on anything now, eh.