Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

I'll end it right there.

You don't know how this thread works, do you?

[Hammertime]

My 2015 property assessment is exactly the purchase price I paid last summer, on a house that had a contract without any conditions left before July 1, but didn't close until August. I didn't think that the assessments were based on actual sales data but based on some kind of estimated formula.

Is this a fluke or was I mistaken? The assessment went up 32%.

[stampsx2]

My property assessment is too high as well. There's no way i can sell for that price. Looking at similar homes that sold in the area, my assessment's 5% too high. Pardon my ignorance but can't the city over assess then claim lowest property taxes in canada?

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Hammertime

My 2015 property assessment is exactly the purchase price I paid last summer, on a house that had a contract without any conditions left before July 1, but didn't close until August. I didn't think that the assessments were based on actual sales data but based on some kind of estimated formula.

Is this a fluke or was I mistaken? The assessment went up 32%.

They do have access to those sales prices. And they do note on their assessment notice:

"An assessment is based on the market value of the property on July 1, 2014 and the property's characteristics and physical condition on December 31, 2014."

As for their methodology, I have no idea. Perhaps other people have better insight.

[polak]

Down she goes...

http://www.creb.com/Seller_Resources...ng_Statistics/

Condo prices already down 8.8%. Sales down 40% and active listings up 78%. Days on Market also up 35%.

I'm trying not to be too happy but man, this is going to help me out A LOT when I look to buy in a few months.

[darklord700]

Looks like 2008 and 2009 again and that's hardly suprising.

[tvp2003]

Curious -- if (when?) prices drop, where do you think you see the biggest decreases? Suburb vs. inner city? Condos vs. <$450k vs. >$450k vs. luxury homes?

[MrPlow]

Originally Posted by polak

Down she goes...

http://www.creb.com/Seller_Resources...ng_Statistics/

Condo prices already down 8.8%. Sales down 40% and active listings up 78%. Days on Market also up 35%.

I'm not trying to be too happy but man, this is going to help me out A LOT when I look to buy in a few months.

I am SO glad that I pulled out of our condo purchase a few weeks ago.

It will be interesting to see what prices are going to be like in March/April

[kevman]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Curious -- if (when?) prices drop, where do you think you see the biggest decreases? Suburb vs. inner city? Condos vs. <$450k vs. >$450k vs. luxury homes?

Suburbs
Condos
Luxury

[calumniate]

I'd say likely condos? They're the most volatile typically

(not an expert)

[Red]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Curious -- if (when?) prices drop, where do you think you see the biggest decreases? Suburb vs. inner city? Condos vs. <$450k vs. >$450k vs. luxury homes?

I'd say that suburbia will be hit the most along with higher priced homes. Basically homes that are not that desirable or attainable.

Airdrie should be fine though because they are 10 minutes drive to everywhere. That's a huge plus.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Red

I'd say that suburbia will be hit the most along with higher priced homes. Basically homes that are not that desirable or attainable.

Airdrie should be fine though because they are 10 minutes drive to everywhere. That's a huge plus.

As an aside, the luxury market has never really tracked the overall (rest of the) market anyhow.

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...et-conditions/

[Krovikan]

Condos, there are a lot of buildings under constructions that if (more then likely when) layoffs happen people will be unable to buy and there will be a swell in Condo inventory.

[Regular_John]

Originally Posted by chemgear

The "Airdrie is only a 10 minute drive to anywhere" statement has been a long standing joke on CP.

Downtown Calgary - 10 minutes from Airdrie
Deep south Calgary - 10 minutes from Airdrie
Montana Border - Just 10 minutes from Airdrie

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by cdutka

Condos, there are a lot of buildings under constructions that if (more then likely when) layoffs happen people will be unable to buy and there will be a swell in Condo inventory.

Not that many, actually. There are quite a few buildings in pre-sale stage, but not that many in construction. Condominium projects normally need to clear a pre-sale target before their lenders allow for construction financing to kick-in. Theses targets could vary from 30% to 60% depending on many factors.

There is a completed condo apartment inventory, which has not been significant as of November. But it will likely build up a bit in the next few months, because of all the uncertainty in the market.

[Schraderbrau]

We have our house for sale right now (listed in early November), and I can say what was fair market value for our house then is not the case now. Based on my experiences so far I would say things are already off by 3% for our place from when we listed to where our realtor figures we can sell now (maybe more then 3%).

Sure picked a great time to build a new house in Calgary....

[darklord700]

Luxury shouldn't be affected as much as you don't finance a $2M home with your paycheck. Condo is a zero and one game, 2000 units could come online in one year and nothing for the next year so I see that being affected more.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by jaydorn

The "Airdrie is only a 10 minute drive to anywhere" statement has been a long standing joke on CP.

Oh, I'm well aware. I am always amazed at the degree of self-delusion in regards to a what people determine as their "average commute time".

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Not that many, actually. There are quite a few buildings in pre-sale stage, but not that many in construction. Condominium projects normally need to clear a pre-sale target before their lenders allow for construction financing to kick-in. Theses targets could vary from 30% to 60% depending on many factors.

There is a completed condo apartment inventory, which has not been significant as of November. But it will likely build up a bit in the next few months, because of all the uncertainty in the market.

Pre-sales doesn't really matter all this means is someone has put a deposit down. So that 30-60%, can end up being an empty building if sales fall through.

Also quoting November inventories when we are discussing spikes in January inventories is really miss-leading.

[Red]

Just heard on qr77 news. CREB predicts sales to slow down 4% and prices to have only 1.5% gains this year.

That's based on their predictions that oil will bounce back by mid year.

Yup, they are experts on commodities now too.