Canadian dollar sinks below 88 cents as Saudis cut oil to $77

[troutman]

[red sky]

$77/bbl would be amazing right now...

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by V

So what would be considered the best way for a casual investor to go long on oil? Do you just buy USO, or do you buy the major companies like SU, CVE, etc.? I know nothing about futures, and don't think that's the best way for a noob like me to invest my money. Unless someone wants to give me a crash course on it.

USO is a futures fund. It correlates to the price of crude based on the contracts its management creates.

Don't try to pick a bottom in any market unless you have insider information, or you really really know what to look for technically, or you just want to gamble. There is no indication oil will bounce at this level at all. Buying USO is literally a bet on black at this point.

Just a note, in 2009 the USO was bottom was around $30 and the SU bottom was around $20. Now, USO is at about $20 and SU around $30. I don't know if that means anything but I sure would not be looking for a bottom in any producing oil company right now.

There are much better investments right now. Pick a couple pharma companies.

[V]

I'm not talking about right now, though. At some point I'm going to want to go long on oil, and I'm curious which is the best vehicle for a casual investor.

Just off the last year, USO:US seems to correlate well with oil. I haven't looked closely to see if that is the case longer term. But if there comes a point when I want to go long, I'm curious what my best options are.

I've been sitting mostly in utilities and pipelines over the last few years, but with interest rates set to rise I'm thinking it's probably looking like time to get out. Oil might be where I want to move to.

[nik-]

https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/ir...085112635.html

Perhaps this heats up the middle east cold war.

[HarryH93]

Ahhh, $77 a barrel. Those were the good days, lol

[Ducay]

Everytime I see the thread title and actually read it, I die a little inside. "Wait, we thought $77 was a bad price?". Feels like ages ago that was the case, not 2-3 months.

Can someone please fly to Saudi or Iran and just stir some sh** up? I don't know if this cold war of words is going to do much. We need some serious action and Iran to get angry and try blocking the Straight of Hormuz or something.

[terminator]

We don't want the return of $100 oil. What we need for WCSB stability is $65-$75 oil.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Everytime I see the thread title and actually read it, I die a little inside. "Wait, we thought $77 was a bad price?". Feels like ages ago that was the case, not 2-3 months.

Can someone please fly to Saudi or Iran and just stir some sh** up? I don't know if this cold war of words is going to do much. We need some serious action and Iran to get angry and try blocking the Straight of Hormuz or something.

If you want to talk to anyone about oversupply talk to the US and their ~66% growth of oil production in 3 years. Depending on the source SA is around 20% increase in the same period and again depending on the source Iran has had a 30% decrease in production. Mind you they want sanctions lifted so they could bring production from ~3m BPD to over 6m BPD so if up to Iran they would not be an innocent bystander in this if they had their way.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by cdutka

If you want to talk to anyone about oversupply talk to the US and their ~66% growth of oil production in 3 years. Depending on the source SA is around 20% increase in the same period and again depending on the source Iran has had a 30% decrease in production. Mind you they want sanctions lifted so they could bring production from ~3m BPD to over 6m BPD so if up to Iran they would not be an innocent bystander in this if they had their way.

Yeah, that's what I don't get. You hear people complaining about the Saudi's (or OPEC) and how it's "their fault" and that they need to take some kind of action. Like it's not a fundamental supply versus demand issue.

"Here, I'm telling you that you need to stop selling this thing so that we sell the exact same thing at a higher price. kkthxbye!"

[V]

I seem to remember O'Leary calling for $35 oil, and it more or less being laughed off of here. It's really not looking so outlandish now. Hold on to your hats.

[Mortgage Made Easy]

Financial markets are now pricing in a better chance of a Bank of Canada rate cut by year end than a rate hike.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by Mortgage Made Easy

Financial markets are now pricing in a better chance of a Bank of Canada rate cut by year end than a rate hike.

22% same time last year listing increase and 34% same time last year sales decrease... I thought we were 6-12 months out before real estate is effected. Shocked at those numbers...

[Red]

Originally Posted by cdutka

22% same time last year listing increase and 34% same time last year sales decrease... I thought we were 6-12 months out before real estate is effected. Shocked at those numbers...

Condos inventory is thru the roof. Not that SFH are much better though.

http://www.creb.com/Seller_Resources...ng_Statistics/

[Slava]

Originally Posted by cdutka

22% same time last year listing increase and 34% same time last year sales decrease... I thought we were 6-12 months out before real estate is effected. Shocked at those numbers...

Its because bond yields have gone down significantly, basically everywhere (not just Canada).

[Slava]

Fairly big bounce in the price of oil today. It was a weird one to watch come across the screen, but here is an article about it as well: http://business.financialpost.com/20..._lsa=9772-4537

[Nehkara]

Yeah, as Slava said, oil is up 5% so far today.

[chemgear]

Title had the dollar at 88 cents, we're sub 83 now. Oil is back down as well.

The dollar will probably drop more if the BOC hints of dropping interest rates tomorrow during their usual announcement.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Title had the dollar at 88 cents, we're sub 83 now. Oil is back down as well.

The dollar will probably drop more if the BOC hints of dropping interest rates tomorrow during their usual announcement.

My friend and I were thinking a good resting spot would be 75-80 cents when we were discussing this topic.

I worry they cut the rates, why overdrive the rest of the country to help Alberta.

[Tinordi]

I've gone long on oil futures and I have alot of patience.