Flames: 18-15-3, 39 points, 5th in Pacific, 9th in West, 18th in League.
Oilers: 7-21-7, 21 points, last in Pacific, last in West, League? You guessed it. Dead. ####ing. Last.
These teams met once earlier this season, and even though it was a 5-2 win, it took 38 saves from Ramo to get the win. The Flames are a much different team now. Even though the goaltending performances have dropped a little, they have still gotten the job done when not being hung out to dry. That was the problem during a recent 8 game winless skid that was snapped in dramatic fashion against the defending Stanley Cup Champions, L.A. Kings. The Flames weren't making a lot of errors defensively, but when they did it ended up in the back of the net. Couple that with a poorly timed drying up of offense, and you had a team that was in every game, but just couldn't find a way to win. Hopefully that is changing but the Flames still have work to do to get back to their winning ways for 2 months of the early season. Not to take the Oilers too lightly, but this is the perfect opponent for the Flames to get their confidence back. Not many teams play such a poorly structured game and have so few NHL quality personnel on their team. That's not beating up on a rival, that's just saying the facts.
Nelson is still searching for his first win as the head coach and the Oilers are in the midst of another long losing streak (0-6-2). Sure the break might help them, but when a team has that many bad habits it's not going to change overnight. The Oilers will likely come out with some energy early on, but as long as the Flames weather the storm without giving up many, or any, goals, they should be able to find a way to win on home ice. The Oilers have only 2 wins on the road all year, and have just 1 win in 24 games against the West. Most recent was a 5-1 loss to one of the few teams that could be beatable from the Oilers perspective in the Arizona Coyotes, and they did so in spectacularly bad fashion, the coach saying after that they "took a step back" and their "execution was really poor". I just don't think you're going to see much improvement from the Oilers the rest of the year, so you can bank on them getting either McDavid or Eichel.
Here are the following categories that the Oilers rank in the bottom 5 in the league: Goals Against per Game (last), Goals For per Game, Power Play, 5 on 5 GF/GA ratio, Shots For per Game. Surprisingly the Oilers are middle of the pack in both Shots Against per Game, and Penalty Kill, but the goaltending has been so woefully awful that they just haven't been able to get any consistency keeping the puck out of the net. Both Scrivens and Fasth (who were supposed to be the solution to the goaltending problems in Edmonton) have a GAA over 3.20 and Save Percentages of .890 or less. How can you possibly be competitive with those types of numbers? The defense still manages to give up grade A opportunities which inflates those numbers, but realistically they are both just not nearly good enough. They could win more games if anyone could score, but their leading scorer RNH has just 22 points, followed closely by the "best left winger in the game" Taylor Hall at 21 points in 29 games and a -8. There's actually nobody that plays significant minutes who is in the plus. The only 2 players who have played more than 10 games and are not in the minus are Steve Pinizzotto and Keith Aulie.
It's not like the Flames don't have problems of their own. Nobody NOT named Gaudreau or Hudler has been particularly good offensively lately. Here is a list of key offensive players who haven't scored a goal in 5 games: Sean Monahan, Joe Colborne, Mason Raymond, Josh Jooris, Markus Granlund, Paul Byron. Curtis Glencross has just 1 goal in his last 9. Simply put, the forwards haven't been nearly good enough of late. Thank god for Hudler and Gaudreau through this rough stretch. Hudler has 2 goals and 7 points in his last 7 games. Gaudreau has 4 goals in his last 2 games, and has really helped carry the offense through this drought.
Defensively, the Flames have done ok sitting in the middle of the pack even after this recent stretch of games, but their PK is still awful, sitting near the bottom at just over 75%. If this team wants to get serious about the playoffs, they have to fix the penalty kill. Goaltending is a part of that, but most of the GA lately have been 5 on 5, dropping the Flames GF/GA ratio at even strength to the middle of the pack at just 1.05. This was their strength earlier in the season, and they'll need to pick up the 5 on 5 play to get back in the playoff race.
All in all the Flames are still in good position if they move forward and continue to make improvements to their play throughout the season. Only 2 injuries at the moment with Backlund still a few weeks away from playing and no timeline for Smid following his concussion. Potter was sent down for the holidays and recalled yesterday, but no word on whether or not he'll play. To be fair the 3rd pairing of Engelland and Diaz have played their best hockey all year of late, so it's been hard to justify pulling either out of the lineup.
These lines are based on the most recent practice, but there's no word of sitting Jooris yet (although it looks like he could use a game off). Goaltenders are a guess.
Gaudreau is going to put on a show tonight against the worst defence in hockey. And all the oiler fans will sit and watch our 4th round pick embarrass all their 1st overalls.
For whatever reason I don't have a good feeling about the game tonight, but I'll stay positive and say the Flames squeak out a 3-2 win despite being outplayed.
For whatever reason I don't have a good feeling about the game tonight, but I'll stay positive and say the Flames squeak out a 3-2 win despite being outplayed.
Yeah I also have a feeling that karma is going to bite ua fans in the ass for being too cocky.
Flames vs. Oilers, 8 pm, CBC
