[CP Story] The Turkey Day Bubble

[Textcritic]

^
Who are you guys kidding? This team has me convinced that they won't lose two in a row all year.

[Split98]

That this is even a discussion so far into the rebuild is a win enough for me. Everything else good that happens to the team is just gravy at this point.

[gvitaly]

Just to continue all the optimism sportsclubstats now has Calgary as the team that is most likely to win the Cup(5.6%) in the pacific division. Also, we 'only' need to go 4 games above .500 for the rest of the season to have a good chance at the playoffs.

sportsclubstats

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Just to continue all the optimism sportsclubstats now has Calgary as the team that is most likely to win the Cup(5.6%) in the pacific division. Also, we 'only' need to go 4 games above .500 for the rest of the season to have a good chance at the playoffs.

sportsclubstats

How do they arrive at the most likely in the Pacific?? Is it due to strength of schedule?

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

How do they arrive at the most likely in the Pacific?? Is it due to strength of schedule?

I assume it is because they weight the relative strength of teams, based on schedule as well. I am not sure regarding the exact formulas, but they are always fun to look at.

[JD]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Hey man, lots and LOTS to choose from in the draft at ninth. Plenty to go around all the way down to 25-26. They won't be the big 3 or 4 (depending on if you want to include Strome) but good ones none the less.

Yup. And if you can draft a Gaudreau or Brodie in the middle rounds, isn't it more effective for the Flames to concentrate on winning while their scouts and front office pour their efforts into drafting and development? The instant payoff of a Sean Monahan is great but enduring that season of losing hockey was tough.

Originally Posted by looooob

interesting thanks

I'm not sure I want to know the answer, but can someone remind me where the Turek/Gilbert/Iggy/poutySavard/Conroy 2001 Flames were at this point? were the wheels already flying off?

That year I was in Montreal for Grey Cup (which we also won) and we took a roadie to Ottawa to watch the Flames play. It was November 22, they tied the Senators 4-4 and the Flames went to 13-2-4-2. We partied it up pretty good in Ottawa that night. They lost the next night in Buffalo. Grey Cup was on Sunday, November 25. The Stamps were champions and the Flames fell to pieces.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by JD

That year I was in Montreal for Grey Cup (which we also won) and we took a roadie to Ottawa to watch the Flames play. It was November 22, they tied the Senators 4-4 and the Flames went to 13-2-4-2. We partied it up pretty good in Ottawa that night. They lost the next night in Buffalo. Grey Cup was on Sunday, November 25. The Stamps were champions and the Flames fell to pieces.

There are so many differences between what is happening now and that fated 2001 season. From what I recall, the Flames were winning on the strength of a ridiculously hot performance streak of Roman Turek, who opened the season with back-to-back shutouts, and was consistently posting +40 save wins through October and November. Second, the Flames were playing a pure chip-and-chase game. With the limited skill on that roster, the plan was always to dump the puck in, grind it out of the corner, get it on net, and jam it in on a bounce or rebound.

Unlike that team, this Flames team can skate with every NHL team, and better than most. They move the puck with confidence and precision, and are consistently making great zone entries and high percentage plays. They are not dependent on otherworldly performances from their goalies game in and game out. In short, the team, is much, much better, and I would expect that while the Flames are currently enjoying some good fortune and likely unsustainable shooting percentages, they are good for their record. When you watch the Flames, this is not a team that holds on for dear life with the faint hope of eeking out a win against superior competition. This team can play, and more often than not, I have seen a group that is creating their own offence with consistency, and s committed to a smart defensive game.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Years of being a Flames fan have taught me to cage my heart a little, but even so I'm starting to believe. Mainly the reason is that they never look outclassed, even against teams like Anaheim (though if I'm being "intellectually honest" I don't like Calgary's chances over 7 games against a team like the Ducks, with superior size and skill).

At the end of the day, I won't be upset at all if they do stumble. This season has already exceeded my expectations.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

There are so many differences between what is happening now and that fated 2001 season. From what I recall, the Flames were winning on the strength of a ridiculously hot performance streak of Roman Turek, who opened the season with back-to-back shutouts, and was consistently posting +40 save wins through October and November. Second, the Flames were playing a pure chip-and-chase game. With the limited skill on that roster, the plan was always to dump the puck in, grind it out of the corner, get it on net, and jam it in on a bounce or rebound.

Unlike that team, this Flames team can skate with every NHL team, and better than most. They move the puck with confidence and precision, and are consistently making great zone entries and high percentage plays. They are not dependent on otherworldly performances from their goalies game in and game out. In short, the team, is much, much better, and I would expect that while the Flames are currently enjoying some good fortune and likely unsustainable shooting percentages, they are good for their record. When you watch the Flames, this is not a team that holds on for dear life with the faint hope of eeking out a win against superior competition. This team can play, and more often than not, I have seen a group that is creating their own offence with consistency, and s committed to a smart defensive game.

Another thing that was happening is that Savard wouldn't buy in to the dump and chase even when protecting a lead. I remember the Kings game where Savard came back from injury and I'd put him personally responsible for allowing the Kings to come back and win the game. IIRC that was also the game after Turek signed his new contract and the start of the downfall, although I don't blame Turek.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Years of being a Flames fan have taught me to cage my heart a little, but even so I'm starting to believe. Mainly the reason is that they never look outclassed, even against teams like Anaheim (though if I'm being "intellectually honest" I don't like Calgary's chances over 7 games against a team like the Ducks, with superior size and skill).

At the end of the day, I won't be upset at all if they do stumble. This season has already exceeded my expectations.

Yeah, at the beginning of the season I said the Flames would make the playoffs but I'd probably come back to reality about the end of November. It's now been delayed which is great.

[Red Ice Player]

This time it's different. The Flames bookended American Turkey Day with back to back Western Conference road shutouts, still missing three top six forwards from their opening day roster. And Bob Hartley is no Greg Gilbert...

[Knut]

They way i look at it is to just aim for a certain number of points. Try and keep winning every home and road trip and try and win those 7 game series. If the Flames continue to to that they will get in regardless of 4 pt swing games.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Red Ice Player

And Bob Hartley is no Greg Gilbert...

Oh, but he has to be. And clearly Brad Treliving is just like Craig Button, and the current CBA is just like the 1995 CBA.

Which means that any day now, the Flames will sign Ramo to a new contract for insane money, and he won’t be able to stop a beach ball ever again. Plus, Hiller doesn’t exist.

And this, children, is how you don’t draw analogies from history.

[ranchlandsselling]

Terrible bump and not an "I told you so" because I didn't respond in this thread, but what does everyone think now that the flames are essentially out of the playoffs.

For me I figured it was going to happen. I was enjoying the kids playing but kind of always thinking it's going to happen (miss the playoffs) so let's just get on with it and have a better draft pick. Some people might not like that attitude, but if your expectation is 9th or worse, I'd go for worse. That said, I did enjoy watching the kids when they won and think being in a winning environment is better than a losing one.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

^
Who are you guys kidding? This team has me convinced that they won't lose two in a row all year.

ow

[Bingo]

The math doesn't change, but its sad to think they may be in that 11% group and not the 89% majority.

To me though, a team that goes on a start like Calgary that lasts 27 games is more likely to put a hot streak together after losing 6 in a row, then lose the rest of the games on their schedule.

So the correction was made, and now the key is the correction to the correction.

If it's a 180 this will get bumped again.

If not then they are in that minority of teams that bluew 6 point or more leads.

[Toonage]

I've noticed on sports talk radio recently (NHL radio to be specific) that they've moved the needle from Thanksgiving to Christmas (or the All star break, depending on the individual speaking). The conspiracy theorist in me can't help but think this is being done to somehow spite the Flames. Seriously though it does bug me that the one year we hold a spot at the magic mark, the rules magically change for some.

[Salt Water Cowboy #10]

Stajan coming back + This article = curse

It's all over after the perfect storm of Stajan and fan optimism...

Kidding of course. I hope the flames get their #### together and make a push for a spot. Couldn't care less about draft picks. It is a lottery after all

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Bingo

To me though, a team that goes on a start like Calgary that lasts 27 games is more likely to put a hot streak together after losing 6 in a row, then lose the rest of the games on their schedule.

Might stretch more then six games, Home against Dallas-away against Van back-2-back coming up and then a road game in LA. Regardless, I'm confident that's as far as it can go as we have as close to a surefire slump buster as possible on the 27th.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Toonage

I've noticed on sports talk radio recently (NHL radio to be specific) that they've moved the needle from Thanksgiving to Christmas (or the All star break, depending on the individual speaking). The conspiracy theorist in me can't help but think this is being done to somehow spite the Flames. Seriously though it does bug me that the one year we hold a spot at the magic mark, the rules magically change for some.

They're not really rules as much as they're observations of likelihood. And just because something is likely doesnt mean that it will happen.