[CP Story] The Turkey Day Bubble

[GioforPM]

I remember a few years ago Maher telling Kerr that at point X in the season, only one team with the points that Calgary did failed to make the POs. In context IIRC he was reassuring Kerr that despite a recent downard turn in play, Calgary would still be in. Of course, the Flames played even worse the rest of the year and wound up outside.I think they had injuries.That was then though, and this is now. I'm a beleiver.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by looooob

I'm not sure I want to know the answer, but can someone remind me where the Turek/Gilbert/Iggy/poutySavard/Conroy 2001 Flames were at this point? were the wheels already flying off?

US Thanksgiving was early that year, November 22. The Flames were tied with the Oilers for second in the West with 32 points. Both teams missed the playoffs.

The Flames only had 2 regulation losses at Thanksgiving that year. Immediately after Thanksgiving, they lost 4 straight and the wheels fell off. They had 13 wins after 21 games at Thanksgiving, and only won 19 games the rest of the season.

[Joborule]

Good article. Voted not change since my outlook wasn't adjusted. I'm a fair bit optimistic that the Flames can pull it off, and is nice to see stats possibly backing it up, but I'm not ready to wager a playoff bet until around Christmas still. Need more competition against playoff contenders in the west still.

[Dentoman]

Thanks for the article .... well done.

Advanced stats vs. Bingo stats ..... we'll see what happens.

[Vedder]

Originally Posted by looooob

interesting thanks

I'm not sure I want to know the answer, but can someone remind me where the Turek/Gilbert/Iggy/poutySavard/Conroy 2001 Flames were at this point? were the wheels already flying off?

November 28th - 13-5-4-2 - 3rd place
December 28th - 16-13-7-2 - 8th place
January 28th - 21-21-8-2 - 11th place

According to:

http://www.shrpsports.com/nhl/stand.htm

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Just confirming what I recognized by early November. Thanks Bingo.

[mrkajz44]

I think they make the playoffs as a non-wild card (3rd in Pacific).

The only issue I see at this point is the games in hand. We have one to two games ahead of most, so the 6 point lead is somewhat less. Of course, they still have to play the games in hand and win - but they are still there.

[Yrebmi]

Injury.
If Gio and Brodie don't miss major games we got this.

6 points is not enough cushion without our captain.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

Injury.
If Gio and Brodie don't miss major games we got this.

6 points is not enough cushion without our captain.

The team is really weak on the back end, any serious injury to our top 4 and I can see them stumble. Outside of maybe Smid no one can really step up. Diaz and Engelland are what they are and I dont know how much help is available in Adirondack.

Giordano is absolutely unreal. Etch his name onto the Norris trophy right now.

[opendoor]

Possession numbers still seem like a red flag to me. I know some people take issue with that and that's fine, but I don't think it's a coincidence that 15 of the 17 teams to drop out of a playoff spot after the 25 game mark in the last 4 full seasons had sub-50% numbers. Of course it's not a death sentence either though, as several teams with poor numbers to start have had extremely successful years (10-11 BOS and 11-12 NYR are two notable examples, though their numbers weren't as far down as the Flames' are).

I guess the best way to put it is that pretty much every team that drops out has poor possession numbers but certainly not all teams with poor possession numbers will drop out of a playoff spot. It's really just a question of probability. The Flames have built up a decent cushion though, so they might be able to weather poor stretches better than other teams in the past.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Locke

The team is really weak on the back end, any serious injury to our top 4 and I can see them stumble. Outside of maybe Smid no one can really step up. Diaz and Engelland are what they are and I dont know how much help is available in Adirondack.

Giordano is absolutely unreal. Etch his name onto the Norris trophy right now.

Wotherspoon could step into a 3rd pairing tomorrow and probably play better than either guy we have now, and it's arguable that he could handle 2nd pairing minutes. Potter is probably better than Diaz, but had the injury to start the year, so he had to go to Adirondack. You could bring both of those guys up now to fill in for injuries and the team wouldn't be much worse off in the bottom 4. The problem would be there wouldn't be that unreal top pairing to drive the offense. Our goal scoring would likely dry up and we'd be forced to rely on our goaltending a lot more to win games. We'd still be a .500 team without one of Gio or Brodie IMO.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Wotherspoon could step into a 3rd pairing tomorrow and probably play better than either guy we have now, and it's arguable that he could handle 2nd pairing minutes. Potter is probably better than Diaz, but had the injury to start the year, so he had to go to Adirondack. You could bring both of those guys up now to fill in for injuries and the team wouldn't be much worse off in the bottom 4. The problem would be there wouldn't be that unreal top pairing to drive the offense. Our goal scoring would likely dry up and we'd be forced to rely on our goaltending a lot more to win games. We'd still be a .500 team without one of Gio or Brodie IMO.

Brodie doesnt worry me. Giordano is a madman.

[FlamesAddiction]

Very interesting read...

If I am reading that correctly, on average in any given year, roughly 4 of the 16 teams in a playoff position by American TG can expect to fall out of a position by the end of the season. Are the Flames likely to be in that group?

Unfortunately, the games in hand by some of the teams lower than us gives me some pause still.

I don't know if there is an easy way to see it, because I am too lazy to do the math, but I wonder what the standings look like from a win percentage perspective.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by Locke

The team is really weak on the back end, any serious injury to our top 4 and I can see them stumble. Outside of maybe Smid no one can really step up. Diaz and Engelland are what they are and I dont know how much help is available in Adirondack.

Giordano is absolutely unreal. Etch his name onto the Norris trophy right now.

Treliving is on the record stating that he believes good teams are built from the goaltender out - so I doubt the lack of defensive depth is lost on him. Fortunately, we'll have an excess of quality NHL forwards when the likes of Stajan, Backlund, and Raymond return that can be used in the trade market to get help.

My guess? By Christmas we have another #4/5/6 defenseman.

[_Q_]

I voted no change because I assumed before opening night that this is a playoff team.

The only thing I'm becoming convinced of is that they might pull off a top three division finish and not be a wildcard team.

[vicarious]

Originally Posted by Dan02

One thing that I think helps the Flames this year though is while there is one team on the outside I think definitely will make it in Minnesota, I also think there is one team in Winnipeg which is on the inside now which won't make it.

These 8 minus Winnipeg plus Minnesota I think will be the 8 teams we see in the playoffs this year.

I agree with this. The Wild are a good team and they have games in hand. I can't see the Jets making it.

Also agree that Giordano and Brodie must stay healthy or we are screwed.

[dying4acup]

I can't condemn advanced stats and then justify buying into this idea that we are better off in the long run for having played well 1/4 of the way into the season.

I'm buying in based on the last 60 games, in addition to better results in 1-goal games and better results in OT-shootouts.

I'm not buying in because of results on an arbitrary date, but I'm buying in none the less.

[Vedder]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Possession numbers still seem like a red flag to me. I know some people take issue with that and that's fine, but I don't think it's a coincidence that 15 of the 17 teams to drop out of a playoff spot after the 25 game mark in the last 4 full seasons had sub-50% numbers. Of course it's not a death sentence either though, as several teams with poor numbers to start have had extremely successful years (10-11 BOS and 11-12 NYR are two notable examples, though their numbers weren't as far down as the Flames' are).

On this point, San Jose and Minnesota are currently on the outside looking in with top 5 possession numbers in the league. Odds are those teams see an improvement over their results to date (granted, there seems to be some turmoil in San Jose that could derail their season). I can't see Minnesota losing out on at least a wildcard spot.

Winnipeg is a decent possession team but has horrid goaltending, so I could see them falling out.

[FlamesAddiction]

So I looked into it. Going by points per game, it would only drop us from 5th to 6th in the conference. If Chicago beats Anaheim today, we would go to 7th... so the games in hand aren't as scary to me any more I suppose.

[undercoverbrother]

If they can continue not dropping more than one game in a row they are in.