[CP Story] The Turkey Day Bubble

[Bingo]

Not an article for the feint of heart

I look into the numbers of teams that make or don't make the playoffs based on their position at American Thanksgiving

Turkey Day Bubble

[timbit]

Very interesting and informative analysis.

Well done Bingo.

[Rubicant]

Very nice article Bingo, but just as a bit of feedback, I think you have your x and y axis labels reversed.

[belsarius]

Awesome write-up. I'll admit up until the San Jose win I was still expecting it to all fall apart. I thought the Flames were inflated by hitting a lot of Eastern teams and not having California dealt with. But two strong games against Anaheim and another strong win against San Jose has me sold.

The stats in the article just cemented it even further, 5.5% chance to miss is just small enough that I have tonnes of faith in a team that's defied the odds so often this season.

The other telling stat that I have been following is the team's points for/against. While +/- is a pretty useless stat for players, I have seen and I'm sure there are blogs out there pointing to a strong correlation between the teams in the playoffs having the best goal differential and at 7th in the league with +11 (tied with LA) this team is for real.

[Dan02]

One thing that I think helps the Flames this year though is while there is one team on the outside I think definitely will make it in Minnesota, I also think there is one team in Winnipeg which is on the inside now which won't make it.

These 8 minus Winnipeg plus Minnesota I think will be the 8 teams we see in the playoffs this year.

[Street Pharmacist]

Great analysis Bingo.

I'm not ready to be as optimistic as you. The issue as I see it, is that there's little difference between 5 points in and 6. Despite the cry against it, or underlying numbers look quite similar to those Toronto teams that missed.

Having said all that. My gut says 60% chance as I'm an eternal pessimist

[troutman]

Elliotte Friedman was talking about this with Kerr the other day. He has had a friendly on-going debate with Holland. Holland likes the Thanksgiving date as a predictor - Freidman's research shows the date should be Nov 1st (or even earlier).

http://illegalcurve.com/2014/11/09/a...fter-15-games/

The importance of banking early season points becomes clearer when you understand that most playoff spots are determined by US Thanksgiving, which this year is November 27th.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman calculates it based on where a team is as of November 1st as he wrote in his 30 Thoughts column last week:

“If you’re a regular reader of this blog, you know I track a certain post-season stat: teams more than four points out of the playoffs on Nov. 1 face a serious fight to get in. Since 2003-04, only five clubs out of 40 that far behind on that date made it…..Winnipeg was five from the wild card, but just three in arrears of Minnesota for third in the Central. Therefore, upon further review, the Jets don’t count. The good news for this year’s qualifiers is that two teams did it last year, Dallas and Philadelphia. ”

[SofaProfessor]

You can look at the numbers as an optimist or a pessimist.

An optimist see's this and says there's a 75% chance of getting in. Give me 75% odds on a lotto ticket and I will knock over my own grandmother to buy it.

A pessimist says there's a 25% chance they don't make it. If you tell me 25% of the apples in the basket are poisoned, I probably won't eat an apple.

If they keep playing the way they have been, they're in. Simple as that.

[Wolven]

While I am stoked at the idea of this being a playoff team, and having the stats to support the idea, a small part of me is sad about this effectively killing my dream of McDavid in a Flames jersey.

All summer long I was telling myself that it was okay if we lose games because it gets us another key piece of the rebuild.

My biggest fear now is that dreaded 9th place finish.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Wolven

While I am stoked at the idea of this being a playoff team, and having the stats to support the idea, a small part of me is sad about this effectively killing my dream of McDavid in a Flames jersey.

All summer long I was telling myself that it was okay if we lose games because it gets us another key piece of the rebuild.

My biggest fear now is that dreaded 9th place finish.

Hey man, lots and LOTS to choose from in the draft at ninth. Plenty to go around all the way down to 25-26. They won't be the big 3 or 4 (depending on if you want to include Strome) but good ones none the less.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Dan02

One thing that I think helps the Flames this year though is while there is one team on the outside I think definitely will make it in Minnesota, I also think there is one team in Winnipeg which is on the inside now which won't make it.

These 8 minus Winnipeg plus Minnesota I think will be the 8 teams we see in the playoffs this year.

If Minnesota is in and the Jets are out, that would make our lead only 3 points. Still the odds are with us.

[surferguy]

Great write up thanks. Now that the odds are high to get in, lets set a new goal..

FIRST PLACE

[troutman]

Other reasons for optimism:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.03 to 82.7%

To get to 92 points, CGY just has to play 4 games over .500 the rest of the way.

Calgary has played two more road games than home games.

Calgary has two games remaining vs Buffalo. four games vs. Edmonton.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

If Minnesota is in and the Jets are out, that would make our lead only 3 points. Still the odds are with us.

The premise though is that a better team will catch you and knock you out of the playoffs. Which i do not believe that Winnipeg is. I think they will drop off further.

I'd say for us to miss the playoffs both SJ and Minnesota will have to make it. and frankly I think SJ has hit the wall with their core just like the Flames did in the Iginla years.

[hummdeedoo]

At this point it's also clear who we are cheering against:

San Jose, Minnesota, Dallas and Winnipeg - the more points they drop the better.

Also games against these clubs are potential big point swing games.

Would love to start beating the nucks on a regular basis and steal their spot.

[Erick Estrada]

I still think they miss the playoffs but I will be happy to be wrong on this one.

[automaton 3]

Nice write-up. I voted "did not change" only because I was already convinced.

What has been most impressive this year is the youth stepping up and proving they are NHL ready. Can't even remember the last Flames team that was so deep in quality forwards.

[getbak]

It would be nice if the Oilers would stop just giving 2 points to every Western Conference team they play too.

[looooob]

interesting thanks

I'm not sure I want to know the answer, but can someone remind me where the Turek/Gilbert/Iggy/poutySavard/Conroy 2001 Flames were at this point? were the wheels already flying off?

reasons for ongoing pessimism
Flames have had luck (in some areas more than others), with some poor underlying performances
The bottom of the roster (mostly the 3rd pairing on d) is quite scary
Relying on a 20 year old as the 'veteran' center is also scary
There are 2 players that the Flames could absolutely not afford to lose to injury

reasons for optimism
Lots of injuries- especially at forward, players should return
AHL team demonstrating that there seem to be many 'plug in' options, esp at forward
Schedule, as I understand it, lays out as somewhat favorable
no shortage of cap space (and more worrisome- assets) to make deals to shore up minor deficiencies (note- this is not to say I want this to happen- only pointing it out in the context of making the playoffs)

edit: hmm well partially answering my own question, the Flames tied Ottawa on November 22 (I happened to be in Ottawa that night) and then reeled off 4 consecutive losses which was the beginning of the end, on this date in 2001 they were 3 losses into that tailspin and were 13-5-4-2; 32 points in 24 games

[smoothessence]

Originally Posted by Wolven

While I am stoked at the idea of this being a playoff team, and having the stats to support the idea, a small part of me is sad about this effectively killing my dream of McDavid in a Flames jersey.

All summer long I was telling myself that it was okay if we lose games because it gets us another key piece of the rebuild.

My biggest fear now is that dreaded 9th place finish.

Before you get flamed for possibly even hinting at wanting to tank for McDavid I'm gonna clear up a few things up for you here.

First off, any team would love to have McDavid as a piece of their puzzle but if what is happening in Edmonton is any indication of talented players having little to no effect on a poorly run operation and generally bad team culture of a hockey team, I would take what we have in Calgary 10 times outta 10 if it meant developing at a steady pace as it seems the team is.

There are no simple formulas like finishing last for a few years and then becoming cup contenders or even something as arbitrary as "that dreaded 9th place finish".

In the past seasons where we drafted the players you see playing lights out on the farm and playing well in Calgary we finished as follows:

2010: 10th
2011: 10th (1 point out of 9th)
2012: 9th
2013: 13th
2014: 15th

We have been mediocre at winning and losing for the past few years and only drafted Bennett last year and he isn't even on this incredibly popular and relatively successful squad.

Other teams have drafted consistently higher than us over the past few years with varied outcomes. There is no pattern to follow.