Not to worry; this won't last says Myrtle

[Resolute 14]

Well, Oiler fans have originated many of these stats. PDO and Fenwick, for instance. But they have generally proven out to be fairly representative.

So an Oilers fan can look at those stats and say "we should be better" all they want, and that is fair comment. But we all know what should happen on paper and what does happen on the ice don't always correlate perfectly. And certainly in terms of possession stats, you can look good in that one aspect but lose frequently because your goaltending and/or offence sucks. That is the case in Edmonton.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I think as long as people keep these advanced stats in perspective, they can be interesting to see where teams are doing well and where they need improvement.

My problem with them is that they are just one small piece of the puzzle where the final outcome is measured simply as wins and losses (or goals for and against). A lot of people use advanced stats like they are the bigger picture when in fact, they are a just one tool and not all that significant in the big picture.

I think part of my dislike and mistrust of them is that for the last 5 years at least, we have had to hear Oiler fans use them to prop up their team when the results the whole time have been terrible.

I think too, that maybe they're not compete and some bad assumptions are there. Read Bingo's post on the Edmonton is No Good thread and it raises some interesting wisdoms about save % that throw PDO and other commonly used stats under the microscope

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I am not a fancy stats expert, so this is a question to those that understand these numbers

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/team...T&sortdir=DESC

My reading of the fancy stats is that the Oilers are the 17th best team for Fenwick percentage. The Oilers have a better Fenwick than the Rangers, the Habs, Calgary, Ottawa, Philly and a host of others.

The Oilers are the 14th best team for Corsi. They are a better Corsi team than Anaheim, Vancouver, Rangers, Habs, Philly, Colorado, Calgary amongst others.

Am I reading those stats right, are the Oilers a better hockey team than the Habs, Flyers and Rangers based on those two stats? Are the Oilers better than the Ducks based on Corsi?

Do these two predictive stats say that the Oilers eventually will compete with the Ducks this year, assuming that everything regresses to the mean?

Corsi and Fenwick are also not deterministic indicators in that having a better Corsi or Fenwick does not 100% relate to winning. However, there is a clear and evident correlation.

The way to think about it is that if you have good Corsi/Fenwick, you have an 80% chance to make the playoffs. That statement, in itself, shows that there is uncertainty in the numbers. It means that out of a population of 30 teams, there are probably 5-7 teams that don't follow the prevailing trend.

This does not invalidate statistics. This is evidence that real life is not completely deterministic - it is probabilistic, and you can make all the right decisions in your life, and still end up a failure.

However, whether as a person or as a NHL hockey team, you want to put yourself in the best position to succeed. Bill Gates dropping out of college and becoming extraordinarily successful does not invalidate the value of college. Just as cherry picking the Oilers for having average possession numbers and failing (and the Flames the opposite) do not invalidate the entire field of statistics and probability. In both cases, an average person or an average team should look at the data, and realize that college in the individual case, or high possession numbers in the NHL case, will set you up for the greatest probability of success.

The Flames absolutely can continue to succeed with 43% corsi. But I know for a fact that if they're succeeding with 55% corsi I would be a lot more comfortable. We would probably be seeing a lot more 4-1 or 3-0 easy victories rather than 5-4 SO winners with a 2 goal comeback in the last 3 minutes.

Another way to look at it, is if you look at the top 10 and bottom 10 corsi (thereby increasing your sample size)

Top 10: Chicago, Minnesota, NYI, Nashville, Boston, Tampa, Detroit, STL, SJ, Pittsburgh
Bottom 10: Montreal, Dallas, Florida, Columbus, Arizona, Philly, Toronto, Ottawa, Colorado, Calgary, Buffalo

If you were to pick one of these groupings for your team to be associated with, which would you pick?

[Robbob]

The problem with the Oilers is you almost need to breakdown the Corsi and Fenwick by period. 9 of their 13 loses are of 2 goals or more so naturally the teams aren't as aggressive. A few of their 1 goal losses had them losing by 2 but scored in the third to make it a one goal game. That is one of the thing that drives me nuts with the advanced stats and the oilers. Congrats you have the puck because 75% of the season you have been down 2 or more goals and the others teams are playing it safe.

[united]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I think part of my dislike and mistrust of them is that for the last 5 years at least, we have had to hear Oiler fans use them to prop up their team when the results the whole time have been terrible.

I'm not sure what Oilers fans did that as their numbers AND results were both terrible over the last several seasons. Obviously someone who had no understanding.

Their result by season, using score-adjusted corsi:
14-15: 20th
13-14: 28th
12-13: 30th
11-12: 28th
10-11: 28th
09-10: 30th
08-09: 24th

[TheDebaser]

This chart is great at illustrating Regoriums point:

Teams closer to the center went deeper into the playoffs. As you go from the 3:00 position counter clockwise you can see that team performance steadily increases.


It's hard to make the playoffs with a bad fenwick, but it's possible. It's very hard to win the cup with < 50% Fenwick, but it is possible.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Well, Oiler fans have originated many of these stats. PDO and Fenwick, for instance. But they have generally proven out to be fairly representative.

I believe Matt Fenwick is a Flames fan...

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I believe Matt Fenwick is a Flames fan...

Is he? Well... then sorry Matt.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Regorium

However, whether as a person or as a NHL hockey team, you want to put yourself in the best position to succeed. Bill Gates dropping out of college and becoming extraordinarily successful does not invalidate the value of college. Just as cherry picking the Oilers for having average possession numbers and failing (and the Flames the opposite) do not invalidate the entire field of statistics and probability. In both cases, an average person or an average team should look at the data, and realize that college in the individual case, or high possession numbers in the NHL case, will set you up for the greatest probability of success.

Well put in general, but in this part you are making a common mistake in interpretation of statistics. (I'm sure you actually know this, but I think it's relevant enough to be said here.)

College is not the best option for each individual. It's the best option on average, or for most people. Each individual needs to look at their strengths and weaknessess and decide whether or not college is best for them. Blindly going into college because it's usually the best choice can be a mistake for some, and lead into worse results than another path would have.

Likewise, even though high possession numbers are a good thing for teams on average, it does not automatically follow that every team should try to have high possession numbers.

Maybe some teams are odd cases that actually do better playing a style that leads to low possession numbers? Maybe the way we play has been chosen because Hartley and his assistants realized that this team is mostly going to lose possession numbers no matter what they do?

It's possible that someday we will have genuinely advanced statistics that will tell us which teams should pay attention to possession numbers and which teams need to focus on something else.

(Also, just like you can go to college later in your life, you can try to raise your possession numbers later in the season.)

(Also; Note that I'm just speculating. Maybe every team should try to have high possession numbers. Maybe we are trying and failing. Who knows.)

[J epworth]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Is he? Well... then sorry Matt.

He's originally from Edmonton, that's probably why you thought he had grease on him, but ya, his twitter account says Flames fan:

https://twitter.com/fenwickmatt

[Lucky23]

Not Sure if this was posted but...


Thomas Drance: "The Calgary Flames aren't just not a playoff team, they're actively really bad.

Sure they give an honest effort every night, upgraded in net, have been performing well with their top-centermen all injured, and have a very legitimate top-pair. That's all positive news, but that's about it. This team still has a 19-year-old top-line center, no credible forward depth to speak of, and no top-end offensive talent up front. Over the course of 82 games, that will catch up to them.

In the early going they've ridden extremely favorable bounces at both ends of the rink, but they're the second worst team in the NHL at controlling the flow of play at five-on-five (or, put another way, the worst team in the NHL non-Sabres category). This Flames team is going to run into a stretch of brutal losses soon enough, and all of the feel good early season story lines about their super duper comeback-ability and effortiness will be exposed for the bankrupt, repetitive fraud that it is."

[GioforPM]

He's trolling hard.

[_Q_]

Who the hell are these random bloggers coming out of the woodwork all of a sudden? And why are we on CP even worried about their opinions?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Lucky23

This Flames team is going to run into a stretch of brutal losses soon enough, and all of the feel good early season story lines about their super duper comeback-ability and effortiness will be exposed for the bankrupt, repetitive fraud that it is."

This sentence alone makes me want to find him and hit him in the head with a tack hammer.

What an arrogant ass.

One thing he fails to mention is that we have 3 of the top 10 rookie scorers in Gaudreau, Granlund, and Jooris, and only Gaudreau started the season with the team.

No forward depth my ass.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

This sentence alone makes me want to find him and hit him in the head with a tack hammer.

What an arrogant ass.

One thing he fails to mention is that we have 3 of the top 10 rookie scorers in Gaudreau, Granlund, and Jooris, and only Gaudreau started the season with the team.

No forward depth my ass.

You're falling for his trap.


If you call it a mirage? Fine. Call it a "lucky streak"? Fine. He's calling it a bankrupt fraud. That implies contrived misdirection. It's intentionally a negative connotation in order to boil your blood, and it is.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Yes, but why is he so hell bent on showing up the Flames? Did they run over his cat with the team bus?







(do they even have a bus?)

[Enoch Root]

the nastiest response you can bestow on a clown like this is complete silence - like he doesn't exist.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

He's trolling hard.

Same guy who does the Power Rankings for TheScore.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Yes, but why is he so hell bent on showing up the Flames? Did they run over his cat with the team bus?







(do they even have a bus?)

The team is irrelevant. It's flames by convenience because he's got an easier time as they're song expectations

[Enoch Root]

And he has been getting hits for a while by ranking them so low so why not stoke the fire?