Not to worry; this won't last says Myrtle

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Right - I tend to agree.
But you can't (or it's certainly unlikely to) keep having success when you are continually being outshot at even strength. There is nothing 'advanced' about that.
Avs were a team, last year, who bucked that trend all year. Gave people the impression they were a better team than they are.
This year, not so much

Since the Chicago game which badly skewed the shots against stat, the Flames have played 14 games, and have been outshot even strength in 7 of those. Still not ideal maybe, but far from being a doom & gloom scenario

[Bingo]

I don't have a problem with what he's saying.

But I think two things are true ... 1) the Flames start can't last, they're not an elite power and a cup threat 2) They are better than eastern media is giving them credit for

We all go to games. This isn't a team with zero possession.

Really intrigued to see what happens in the next two games though.

[Vinny01]

It is easy to predict a Flames free fall. The team is doing things that no one suspected after 20 games. Right now I think the league is finally recognizing the Brodano pairing and the fact we are getting scoring from young kids it is tough to say that we are destined to fail. The kids could drop off but we still have injuries to some forwards that can score. We are missing size, speed and two way play with Colborne, Raymond, and Backlund out.

For this team to really fall off one of the top 3 D will need to be out of the lineup for a while

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

When criticising advanced stats please continue to demonstrate limited or no understanding of the stats themselves and the arguments as to why they're useful.

Oh please, please tell me more about not understanding advanced stats. When you do, please be sure to explain the impacts of poor methodology, inconsistently applied methodology, sampling failures, sampling inconsistencies, and poor data sets.

When statistics are collected in inconsistent ways the data is considered unreliable, or junk. There is no consistency to data collection not application. Advanced stats are crap.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't have a problem with what he's saying.

But I think two things are true ... 1) the Flames start can't last, they're not an elite power and a cup threat 2) They are better than eastern media is giving them credit for

We all go to games. This isn't a team with zero possession.

Really intrigued to see what happens in the next two games though.

Not many flames fans think we're a "two points out of first in the NHL" team. Everyone expects regression. What is typically infuriating though, is a blindness to what's happening in all those other hot-start teams. Calgary is doomed to fail, because stats. "But man Tampa is so talented because the guys on the team are ones I've seen before", even though the same argument (albeit to a lesser extent) is valid. Weak possession and high PDO.


While we're on the subject of PDO, why is it a measure of luck? I'm sure it's been written about, no? PDO is simply a sum of day pct and shooting pct. Are those not both heavily influenced by talent? If you look at PDO from highest to lowest at the end of the season, it's almost a perfect mirror of the actual standings. So are the standings based on luck?????

[Gaudfather]

Where is the stat that measures heart?

Where is the stat that measures a team's belief in itself?

Where is the stat that measures leadership? (your captain takes a brutal stick to the eye, gets four stitches, comes back and continues a nine game scoring streak)

Where is the stat that measures team conditioning?

What PDO measures is shooting % and save % and if a team is putting up better than average numbers - you will likely get some reversion to the mean - but it could also reflect team structure, conditioning and effort.

If you are driving the net, putting pressure on the opponents defence and shooting from the dirty areas - you just may sustain a higher shooting percentage than if you are just firing at the net from the periphery.

If you have five guys on your team all piling back to play defence and provide puck support in your own end - you may just sustain a higher save percentage.

Not guaranteed, but not impossible. Still lots of things advance analytics cannot measure.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by New Era

Oh please, please tell me more about not understanding advanced stats. When you do, please be sure to explain the impacts of poor methodology, inconsistently applied methodology, sampling failures, sampling inconsistencies, and poor data sets.

When statistics are collected in inconsistent ways the data is considered unreliable, or junk. There is no consistency to data collection not application. Advanced stats are crap.

I won't go that far, but much like hits, shots on net are subjective based on the scorekeeper. Its closer in the NHL than in junior leagues, but shots can be counted differently in different arenas.

I would suspect with a large enough sample you might be able to strip out the noise. But it is something to consider.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

I am always impressed with how the topic of the article is really just a ruse to write another Leafs article in disguise.

Mirtle is a beat reporter for the Leafs. It stands to reason that he is going to work Toronto into a story as much as it does Sportak or Cruickshank often will the Flames. Comes from being familiar with the home team.

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't have a problem with what he's saying.

But I think two things are true ... 1) the Flames start can't last, they're not an elite power and a cup threat 2) They are better than eastern media is giving them credit for

We all go to games. This isn't a team with zero possession.

Really intrigued to see what happens in the next two games though.

Agreed, but I wouldn't put Mirtle in the group of "eastern media" the way you are implying. He generally has a much better grip on the overall picture than most guys out east (especially since he comes from Kelowna.)

The truth is, the way the Flames have played for much of the season does indicate it is unsustainable. The question, all things being equal, is whether they fall off a cliff like Toronto did, or if they manage to outperform expectations for the entire season and get into the playoffs.

But recent games have seen the Flames turn their possession game around. Calgary was ahead of Ottawa all night until that late five-on-three followed by Ottawa's desperation push. Likewise, we controlled the game against the Coyotes. Do that more often, and the narrative begins to change.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Not many flames fans think we're a "two points out of first in the NHL" team. Everyone expects regression. What is typically infuriating though, is a blindness to what's happening in all those other hot-start teams. Calgary is doomed to fail, because stats. "But man Tampa is so talented because the guys on the team are ones I've seen before", even though the same argument (albeit to a lesser extent) is valid. Weak possession and high PDO.


While we're on the subject of PDO, why is it a measure of luck? I'm sure it's been written about, no? PDO is simply a sum of day pct and shooting pct. Are those not both heavily influenced by talent? If you look at PDO from highest to lowest at the end of the season, it's almost a perfect mirror of the actual standings. So are the standings based on luck?????

PDO is a weird stat. Its more just something that tends to work versus making much sense in math. Why are you multiplying shooting percentage by 100? Why not 95? Why not 500? In a true 'advanced' stat you'd actual work out the weights and prove why you are using them.

PDO is just another way of saying if you're getting outshot and still winning, you are getting lucky like all the more common 'advanced' stats out there. They are just different formulas saying the same thing.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Agreed, but I wouldn't put Mirtle in the group of "eastern media" the way you are implying. He generally has a much better grip on the overall picture than most guys out east (especially since he comes from Kelowna.)

Agreed ... he's been more of a scientific antagonist to the East then a flag waver for sure.

Plus loved his lockout work as well.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Not many flames fans think we're a "two points out of first in the NHL" team. Everyone expects regression. What is typically infuriating though, is a blindness to what's happening in all those other hot-start teams. Calgary is doomed to fail, because stats. "But man Tampa is so talented because the guys on the team are ones I've seen before", even though the same argument (albeit to a lesser extent) is valid. Weak possession and high PDO.

I think nobody is talking about Tampa because it is Tampa and most people don't think about them much except to complain about the NHL existing in warm weather markets. Certainly there is a lot of questioning about Montreal, and how they need to control games better if they want to sustain their record.

Honestly though, Tampa (and Montreal) have a track record the Flames don't. It is fair to question whether the Flames can keep it up, irregardless of whether other teams are or should be similarly questioned.

While we're on the subject of PDO, why is it a measure of luck? I'm sure it's been written about, no? PDO is simply a sum of day pct and shooting pct. Are those not both heavily influenced by talent? If you look at PDO from highest to lowest at the end of the season, it's almost a perfect mirror of the actual standings. So are the standings based on luck?????

I think "luck" is used as a shorthand for "defying expectations" in this context. And yes, the bias and expectation of the person making the comment does factor in.

But lets look at the Flames. We have been fortunate that for 19 games now, either the goaltending has been hot, or the offence has been hot, or both. At some point, both are going to go cold. That is when our PDO will normalize, as will our "luck". Last year, that cold snap produced a 3-11-1 stretch that dropped us to the bottom of the league. This year, we shall see. Our strong record to start the year, plus hopefully greater overall talent should help us avoid such a dramatic tailspin.

But lets face it, based on how this team has played the last several years, one can't fault outsiders for questioning the Flames. We're not going to prove them wrong in 20 games.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Why why why why WHY are none of these analysts mentioning the Flames injury situation?

When they are scoring this many goals with 5 top 9 forwards out, is that not incredibly impressive? That's playoff level depth if I've ever seen it.

[PeteMoss]

I'd blame the 3-11-1 stretch more on Giordano being hurt than bad luck.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by New Era

Oh please, please tell me more about not understanding advanced stats. When you do, please be sure to explain the impacts of poor methodology, inconsistently applied methodology, sampling failures, sampling inconsistencies, and poor data sets.

When statistics are collected in inconsistent ways the data is considered unreliable, or junk. There is no consistency to data collection not application. Advanced stats are crap.

Why don't you tell me about those things considering you're the one making the claims that they underlying data is crap. That is your claim right?

So lets have it, show me where there are systemic biases in the data.

[nfotiu]

A quick look at some of the PDO stats say that number is higher on the road than at home. I'd agree that the Flames have an unsustainable road record. They are not going to be 11-12 games over .500 on the road for the year, and that is what their current record translates too. The good news though, is that we are playing a more sustainable game at home, and have only been outshot on one home victory (31-30 vs Nashville), and lost a game against Montreal we were badly outshot.

Considering we've played 3 less home games than road games, we can take a pretty big correction on the road record to get closer to an expected .500 record and still make the playoffs if we can keep up our more sustainable home play.

[Henry Fool]

Even if a combined shooting percentage and save percentage appear to describe a hot streak (which is the only SUPER ADVANCED STAT I DON'T EVEN UNDERSTAND I see in the article), it doesn't follow that the team will simply start losing as that one indicator goes back to normal.

In other words, we all expect tough times in a long season. It's a matter of how they respond when they face struggles. Will they continue to get points or will they go on long losing streaks - that can be a very small margin determined by countless different factors.

Honestly, I don't know. It's easy to predict that the Flames won't make it. They're young, they will likely run out of gas. Easy to make yourself look knowledgeable by predicting that. Also easy to make your favorite stats look good by predicting that SCIENTIFICALLY.

[CaptainCrunch]

I think that sometimes Advanced Stats are designed for people that need to feel better about themselves and don't take the time to actually watch a hockey game.

Yeah its great when your talking about possession times and PDO, but I have yet to see someone come up with a quality of shot taken, quality of shots allowed stat, or mean passes before a shot.

If a team is getting outshot like the team up north and the shots are coming from key scoring areas, and teams are getting it off of the forecheck because the defense runs around a lot then you would have an argument.

Even the svpct is invalid because it dosen't take into account things like rebounds allowed for goals or good goals versus bad goals.

But its easy to sit back with a spreadsheet and mutter, they're no good without ever watching a game or ever actually thinking about it.

Stats are not a substitute for the real thing.

[Chill Cosby]

I understand one looks to history to predict the future, but I look forward to the day when we aren't compared to some other team that made a mistake or did something a particular way as though it is a definitive outlook on our own progression.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I'd blame the 3-11-1 stretch more on Giordano being hurt than bad luck.

So would I. But the point remains that the Flames were awful in all aspects of the game at the same time during that stretch.

And this does tie into Bandwagon in Flames' comment - we have been able to survive injuries to forwards. But if that high stick took Gio out of the lineup for a few weeks, we would have been cooked. Our defensive depth is too weak to sustain the loss of Gio or Brodie. We are dancing on a knife's edge in that regard. And whether people want to admit it or not, the question of defensive depth is one that this year's Flames and last year's Avs share. Though our top end is light years ahead of theirs.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

PDO is a weird stat. Its more just something that tends to work versus making much sense in math. Why are you multiplying shooting percentage by 100? Why not 95? Why not 500? In a true 'advanced' stat you'd actual work out the weights and prove why you are using them.

PDO is just another way of saying if you're getting outshot and still winning, you are getting lucky like all the more common 'advanced' stats out there. They are just different formulas saying the same thing.

Not necessarily though. It tells you nothing about whether or not your getting outshot. The highest PDO in the league last year? Boston, who incidentally won the presidents trophy. Over a 4 year timespan, both Boston and Pittsburgh have a PDO over 101. That statistically cannot be chance. The sample size is far too large to be a random result. It's because they have good goaltending and talented scorers. Full stop.
PDO is only weakly a substitute for luck. For instance, a team with a high PDO without known scorers or goaltending, would be a strong hint it's luck. It's so poorly used by these stats guys though. PDO =/= luck. It may hint at it in certain circumstances (including the current flames imo) but it doesn't mean luck