Alberta Provincial By-Elections - Fall 2014 Editions

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Bunk

They really needed Calgary West. That'll sting. People it seems want to give Prentice a chance.

That's the one that hurts. Taylor was a "star" candidate basically going up against a no name candidate in a riding that didn't get nearly as much attention as Elbow, etc.,

This is a pretty big blow for the WRP.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Bunk

They really needed Calgary West. That'll sting. People it seems want to give Prentice a chance.

Yeah, I think people would like to see him apprentice at this job a bit before the next election.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Bunk

The only way I can see Alberta Party successfully being able to spin to supporters (and more importantly donors) a positive story is if they finish a strong second in Elbow and Clark finishes with more votes than all four Liberal candidates combined.

I'm not sure I agree--he is in second now, and is clobbering the Liberals and the NDP. Elbow isn't a great riding for liberals generally because their strength in the inner SW neighbourhoods is offset by Tory strength in the Western part of the riding (I think part of Elbow used to be in either Currie or Buffalo).

This election was all about who gets to carry the flag for small "l" liberal voters in Calgary. Clark doesn't have to win, or finish 2nd. He just has to be the most viable Center-left choice.

More to the point this is a stinging defeat for the Alberta Liberals, who are sitting at 12% in the riding and are losing badly to Clark across the board.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Incidentally Clark appears to be firmly in 2nd now. He must have put up some very good numbers in the Marda Loop/Garrison Woods area.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Incidentally Clark appears to be firmly in 2nd now. He must have put up some very good numbers in the Marda Loop/Garrison Woods area.

Seems like the outlying areas tended to be a two-horse race between PC and WRP, while the inner city tended to be a two-horse race between PC and AP. But there's just a lot more of those inner-city polls. Just scanning through the list, I count only 3 third-place finishes for Dirks so far, and even those are all ones where he's trailing by less than 10 votes.

[Roughneck]

Urban vs. rural is the new thing in Alberta, this by-election is probably a good indicator for those who didn't think it before.

[Kjesse]

The problem with the Alberta Party is they look like a one trick pony. Showed strong in one riding with who is apparently the best strategist available these days, and do abysmally in every other riding -- Marxist/Leninist kind of numbers when those candidates run. They don't look like a credible place for someone to put their vote.

Add up the Lib, NDP and AP vote. Combined they don't even hit WR numbers. They've got to drop their collective egos and do something or they're all in the political wilderness for the forseeable future. If I recall the AP formed out of some dissatisfied liberal activists, and if so, fine, but the movement has been a complete failure and I don't see it catching any traction.

As for the WR, they ran a poor campaign with the "send the PCs a message" signs, and failed to set the agenda. Its almost like they didn't try beyond negative campaigning. I was hoping Taylor won in my riding of Calgary West but in part because I knew, no matter what Prentice was going to be the Premier anyway, and it would be good to see the PCs go down a few seats this time. I think Prentice makes a much superior premier to Smith.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Not sure if it was mentioned, but CBC has called Elbow for Dirks.

For the record--Clark is now 800 or so back of Dirks now with 63 polls reporting. He has more than twice as many votes as Susan Wright, but together their vote would have been more than enough to win. Let the anti-vote-splitters make of that what they will.

[c.t.ner]

I know a second place showing is a strong result for the Alberta Party, but I don't think it was enough. This was a hail mary pass, with a "dream" collection of strategists and the perfect situation for a Paul Hinman type win to put them on the map.

This second place finish won't keep them in conversations between now and 2016 and it'll be much hard to sneak in a win in the General Election. I know a lot can change in a year, but it's going to be really hard to maintain this momentum for the next year and a bit, especially if Prentice can lure back left leaning voters.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

WR must be be pretty frustrated. PCs had scandal after scandal in the last year and they still win all 4 by-elections...

Because they have no plan. Eventually people see through soundbites.

If Danielle Smith isn't saying "Once again this party shows that ... blah blah blah" there's just nothing else there.

[octothorp]

And add to that, the ridings that are essentially done now are looking like having total vote of around 1/3 of the electorate, and there are polling stations out there that are closer to 1/6th. So every party is going to be looking at how higher turnout in a general election is going to move all these numbers.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I'm not sure I agree--he is in second now, and is clobbering the Liberals and the NDP. Elbow isn't a great riding for liberals generally because their strength in the inner SW neighbourhoods is offset by Tory strength in the Western part of the riding (I think part of Elbow used to be in either Currie or Buffalo).

This election was all about who gets to carry the flag for small "l" liberal voters in Calgary. Clark doesn't have to win, or finish 2nd. He just has to be the most viable Center-left choice.

More to the point this is a stinging defeat for the Alberta Liberals, who are sitting at 12% in the riding and are losing badly to Clark across the board.

Yeah, but despite some boundary changes, it wasn't very long ago that the Liberals held the seat - Craig Cheffins prior to Alison Redford. To be so far back is a very bad indication. Wright was clearly their best candidate.

The worst part for the Liberals isn't even that they lost, it's that they're completely irrelevant as an opposition party. Hardly anyone, especially in the media are even mentioning them. They're just expected to suck now. And, where is Raj Sherman? Time to go bye bye now. At least the Alberta Party showed some will to win something - they obviously put all their eggs into the Greg Clark basket and there's some presence, some semblance of an ambition to win, despite coming up short. It's tough to break through with little brand recognition and even fewer dollars.

Somehow, someway the centre-left needs to come together, get a proper leader and go.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

That's the one that hurts. Taylor was a "star" candidate basically going up against a no name candidate in a riding that didn't get nearly as much attention as Elbow, etc.,

This is a pretty big blow for the WRP.

I would agree. To not win any seats should have Danielle Smith questioning the direction she is leading the party. Seats were ripe for the picking and her party couldn't pull it off.

[RatherDashing]

Where are you guys getting poll results? I can't find anything on my phone.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by RatherDashing

Where are you guys getting poll results? I can't find anything on my phone.

http://results.elections.ab.ca/

[calgarygeologist]

Clark appears to only be about 6% behind Dirks. That is not too bad.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Dion

I would agree. To not win any seats should have Danielle Smith questioning the direction she is leading the party. Seats were ripe for the picking and her party couldn't pull it off.

Yup. I think Smith's days are done. Even though these were PC strong holds, the PC have never been in worse shape then they are now.

With these results I wouldn't be shocked to see Smith ushered out and a leadership contest coming up.

[nieuwy-89]

This is a good night and the best possible outcome for Alberta. Prentice will put us back on the top in this country.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Yup. I think Smith's days are done. Even though these were PC strong holds, the PC have never been in worse shape then they are now.

With these results I wouldn't be shocked to see Smith ushered out and a leadership contest coming up.

She's called a press conference for 11am tomorrow apparently. Surely she's not resigning...

[Minnie]

Originally Posted by Bunk

She's called a press conference for 11am tomorrow apparently. Surely she's not resigning...

It might be the first time I'd want to hear anything DS has to say.