Flames goaltending is killing our chances at McDavid/Eichel/Hanifin: Discuss

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Several people have tried to explain this as clearly as possible. There seems to be a willful misunderstanding going on here. I'll try again.

• I'm not talking about anyone doing anything. So take 'do' out of the discussions. This is simply speculation about likely cause and effect.
  
• Drafting 3rd will likely result in a player who makes a greater difference to the long-term success of the team than a player drafted 8th. Notice I'm saying 'likely', not 'guaranteed'. Call this value X.
  
• Finishing 3rd last may do somewhat more damage to a team's culture than finishing 8th last. Call this value Y.
  
• I believe X > Y.

That's all.

So to sum up this thread.



Literally everyone on this board knows how standings and drafting work.
Everyone agrees that there's nothing that can or should be done.

This makes your "perspective" essentially just whining about winning.

The point of watching sports is enjoyment. This thread is about purposefully looking for the sh**lining on something good, or in other words trying to draw as much attention to what is at this point a purely hypothetical future negative in a situation where things are otherwise looking pretty good.

This thread is about trying to keep in people's minds that winning games now might not be a good thing.

Thanks.

I'd rather enjoy my hockey.

[heep223]

Good points past few posts. We are missing part of the point in that we need to give credit, rebuild or not, to management in that Flames hockey is fun to watch again.

These guys don't give up and they battle hard every night. Goalies included. If you'd rather watch them mail it in for draft picks, go cheer for someone else. That's not the culture of this team nor of this city.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Several people have tried to explain this as clearly as possible. There seems to be a willful misunderstanding going on here. I'll try again.

• I'm not talking about anyone doing anything. So take 'do' out of the discussions. This is simply speculation about likely cause and effect.
  
• Drafting 3rd will likely result in a player who makes a greater difference to the long-term success of the team than a player drafted 8th. Notice I'm saying 'likely', not 'guaranteed'. Call this value X.
  
• Finishing 3rd last may do somewhat more damage to a team's culture than finishing 8th last. Call this value Y.
  
• I believe X > Y.

That's all.

I don't know that culture is so important. But I think that if we finished something like 9th or 10th in the conference with this team, then we do have a lot better foundation already set than we thought we did. I think a 17th-20th place team(with a lot of key young guys who will improve) + Bennett + a #10-12 draft pick is a better team in the short run, and probably long run than a 30th place team + 1st or 2nd overall pick.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I don't know that culture is so important. But I think that if we finished something like 9th or 10th in the conference with this team, then we do have a lot better foundation already set than we thought we did. I think a 17th-20th place team(with a lot of key young guys who will improve) + Bennett + a #10-12 draft pick is a better team in the short run, and probably long run than a 30th place team + 1st or 2nd overall pick.

This. If last year was the 1st year of the rebuild then consider Monahan and Bennett as rebuild pieces, and everything else was the foundation that was already here.

To that end, here are the players not yet in their prime that management had before the beginning of last season: Backlund, Brodie, Byron, Bouma, Ramo. That's a starting goaltender, a top pairing defenseman, a 2nd/3rd line center, and 2 bottom 6 wingers/centers (you can argue Byron as a 13th forward due to versatility).

Then last year, management decides to go out and find a couple players that other teams didn't have room for and were either not yet in their prime, or just entering their prime years: Colborne, Russell, Smid. That's a versatile top 6 winger/bottom 6 center, 2nd pairing defenseman, and 3rd pairing defenseman.

Without doing anything else for a young core, they now have this lineup projection for years:

x-Bennett-x
x-Monahan-Colborne
Byron-Backlund-x
Bouma-x-x

x-Brodie
Russell-x
Smid-x

Ramo

That's half the lineup ladies and gentlemen. The only thing we needed to consider was some more top line talent, top defender, and depth throughout the organization. Well cue up the arrival of a possible elite talent in Gaudreau (but let's say 2nd line). Jooris has shown enough to be considered in the bottom 6 going forward.

x-Bennett-x
Gaudreau-Monahan-Colborne
Byron-Backlund-x
Bouma-x-Jooris

Then we have a handful of veterans who still have many good years left that management decided to retain as core pieces: Giordano, Hudler, Stajan (not sure if they're willing to keep Glencross or Wideman). That's a top pairing defender and captain, a skilled top 6 winger, and a bottom 6 center. Now is Gaudreau really a 2nd line winger? Probably more of a top line winger once he gets used to the NHL.

Gaudreau-Bennett-x
Hudler-Monahan-Colborne
Byron-Backlund-x
Bouma-Stajan-Jooris

Giordano-Brodie
Russell-x
Smid-x

Ramo

To me this is our core moving forward, and it's really not too shabby. Compare that to a lot of playoff teams and we're right on the cusp. It also affords us a ton of cap space to fill those gaps. Who are the easiest players to acquire through free agency? Wingers. You can fill in the 1st and 3rd line RWer spots fairly easily through free agency or prospect development. However, we are woefully short on RWers in the prospect pool, so I think you see a trade at some point to move prospects for prospects, or NHLers for prospects on the right wing.

I should also note that I don't think players like Hudler, Byron, and Jooris are in the long term plans, so I'll subtract them from the lineup for now. But, we added veterans Raymond, Engelland, Bollig, and Hiller on shorter multi-year deals to fill in the gaps. If you put everyone in where they would be on a playoff roster, it looks like this.

Gaudreau-Bennett-x
x-Monahan-Colborne
Raymond-Backlund-x
Bollig-Stajan-Bouma
Byron/Jooris

Giordano-Brodie
Russell-x
Smid-Engelland

Hiller/Ramo

So really, 4 roster spots need to be filled to be a playoff team. Let's just suppose that we already have that ready to be filled within the next year by rookies. Baertschi and Ferland are really close. Sieloff, Wotherspoon, and Poirier are likely a year away. The following could be our roster to start next year, and if not for inexperience, it would likely be a playoff team.

Gaudreau-Bennett-Poirier
Baertschi-Monahan-Colborne
Raymond-Backlund-Ferland
Bollig-Stajan-Bouma
Byron/Jooris

Giordano-Brodie
Russell-Wotherspoon
Smid-Sieloff
Engelland

Hiller/Ramo

Guys, it may take our youngest guys some time for our players to become great NHLers, but it's all there to be a playoff team within a year or two. This isn't taking into consideration all the prospects I didn't name: Granlund, Klimchuk, Arnold, Jankowski, Reinhart, Ortio, Gillies, Knight, Agostino, Hanowski, Kulak, Culkin, Smith, McDonald etc. etc. etc.

Outside of another top 4 defenseman, we don't even really need another top prospect anytime soon. I say play your guts out, go for the playoffs as soon as you can, and let the chips fall where they may.

[foshizzle11]

I don't think we will finish in the bottom 5 this season, but I don't think we will make the playoffs. If we can continue to push at least until the mid year mark we have a really good shot at it IMO.

I like what you added Cali, that is a great post and exactly how I feel. I really hope Bennett can come back healthy and bulk up a bit over the next year so he can truly help this club next season. Finding a top line RW either via our prospects or a trade is necessary before I think we will find success.

Please don't bring Iggy back, I am glad he signed for 3 years in Colorado. I love him but I think him back in the room with mess with what the team has going right now.

I think we could make a deal using Wideman and a couple of prospects for a top line RW. I would even through Baertschi in there to get it because I think any one of Poirier, Granlund or even Klimchuk could fill in on the LW a lot easier than pushing a LW to the RW on our top line.

All i know is that the Flames management team has put together a fun group to watch and grow with. I am very excited about this season and what this team will bring us each night.

Go Flames!!

[Phanuthier]

I agree, its a good lineup that will get us into the playoffs one day - but will it win a cup? I'm not so sure.... I just kind of have this mindset that if we aren't making the playoffs, I would like to see the team accumulate as many top tier assets as possible. (Again not that I have a solution for how to do that.) Some people have more of a mindset of win-the-next-game, some people have the mindset of where is the next year, some people have the mindset of where is the team in 5 years. Its just a difference of opinions, thats all.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I think a 17th-20th place team(with a lot of key young guys who will improve) + Bennett + a #10-12 draft pick is a better team in the short run, and probably long run than a 30th place team + 1st or 2nd overall pick.

But if these guys indeed develop into 'generational talents'... that would be like saying the Pens would be better off with (8 thru 12 picks)
Devin Setoguchi
Brian Lee
Luc Bordon
Marc Staal
... And yes, Kopitar too - who helps make your point, but still

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

I agree, its a good lineup that will get us into the playoffs one day - but will it win a cup? I'm not so sure.... I just kind of have this mindset that if we aren't making the playoffs, I would like to see the team accumulate as many top tier assets as possible. (Again not that I have a solution for how to do that.) Some people have more of a mindset of win-the-next-game, some people have the mindset of where is the next year, some people have the mindset of where is the team in 5 years. Its just a difference of opinions, thats all.

I think we're all (or most of us are) taking the long view, but some of us think that we already have a lot of good pieces in place and high-end prospects (in various forms) in the bucket that we aren't concerned about high picks over improvement, whereas some are fearing that the talent of our prospect base isn't high enough and worried we won't have enough to get over the cusp. It's a legitmate concern, the problem those of us on the other side have is A) There's no guarantee that high picks turn to highend players, B) There's no reason why later picks can't turn into high-end players. We have 2 4th rounders looking to be two of our future (and now) best players right now, and C) the idea of diving, or whining about the team winning is just straight up annoying. It's a competitive sport played by competitive people with (supposedly) competitive fans. So it's hard for some us to wrap our heads around why someone would see losing as a good thing. We all understand that it nets high picks, but we don't all think those are necessary for success. At some point, I assume, you're going to want a turnaround, why can't it happen this year? If we end up in the playoffs this season, how is it a bad thing? And if you don't think it is, are we going to have to listen to whining (not you necessarily) the entire year until the end of the season when people realize/accept that we are actually going to make the playoffs?

Nothing wrong with the discussion, but guys like Hackey being a dick and thinking other people are clueless for thinking that winning is a good thing definitely fuel the fire.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

I agree, its a good lineup that will get us into the playoffs one day - but will it win a cup? I'm not so sure.... I just kind of have this mindset that if we aren't making the playoffs, I would like to see the team accumulate as many top tier assets as possible. (Again not that I have a solution for how to do that.) Some people have more of a mindset of win-the-next-game, some people have the mindset of where is the next year, some people have the mindset of where is the team in 5 years. Its just a difference of opinions, thats all.

One thing you could do that would/could make both sides happy is deal Wideman for a decent prospect. Outside of that though, you're right. Integrity matters, so you can't trade all your good players just to suck.

I'm torn here. I'd love a top pick in this draft, but I'm starving for a team to cheer for, and this seems like the team I want to cheer for. If the flames played like Carolina last night or Buffalo, I'd probably get sick and tired of watching and worried the suck would continue

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I think we're all (or most of us are) taking the long view, but some of us think that we already have a lot of good pieces in place and high-end prospects (in various forms) in the bucket that we aren't concerned about high picks over improvement, whereas some are fearing that the talent of our prospect base isn't high enough and worried we won't have enough to get over the cusp. It's a legitmate concern, the problem those of us on the other side have is A) There's no guarantee that high picks turn to highend players, B) There's no reason why later picks can't turn into high-end players. We have 2 4th rounders looking to be two of our future (and now) best players right now, and C) the idea of diving, or whining about the team winning is just straight up annoying. It's a competitive sport played by competitive people with (supposedly) competitive fans. So it's hard for some us to wrap our heads around why someone would see losing as a good thing. We all understand that it nets high picks, but we don't all think those are necessary for success. At some point, I assume, you're going to want a turnaround, why can't it happen this year? If we end up in the playoffs this season, how is it a bad thing? And if you don't think it is, are we going to have to listen to whining (not you necessarily) the entire year until the end of the season when people realize/accept that we are actually going to make the playoffs?

Nothing wrong with the discussion, but guys like Hackey being a dick and thinking other people are clueless for thinking that winning is a good thing definitely fuel the fire.

Bold point 1 vs (A) .... from my viewpoint, this is why I just want to accumulate talent, because you never know what can happen to your prospects, who will reach their potential, who will level off, etc. All this talk about McDavid & Co is somewhat seducing, if there is so much talent there, it looks like a great opportunity to really stock the pipeline with prospects.

(c) I can see..... but really there's like 300 posts every game thread. I usually just end up skimming through anyways... last night was a fun game to watch, even though it became very evident that we would not be finishing bottom 3 this year and getting more golden ping pong balls for this years draft.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

I agree, its a good lineup that will get us into the playoffs one day - but will it win a cup? I'm not so sure....

That's just it though: we can't ever be sure until it happens. Do you think in Chicago when the Blackhawks drafted Kane in 2006 that they then decided the team was basically set and ready to win a Stanley Cup? No.

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

I just kind of have this mindset that if we aren't making the playoffs, I would like to see the team accumulate as many top tier assets as possible. (Again not that I have a solution for how to do that.) Some people have more of a mindset of win-the-next-game, some people have the mindset of where is the next year, some people have the mindset of where is the team in 5 years. Its just a difference of opinions, thats all.

The problem is that there is only so much a team can plan for. The Flames cannot plan to be a bottom three team for three years, and then expect to start climbing the standings in year four towards a championship. All they can do is play the chips they have, and do their best to ensure that they get maximum value from them. If the team ends up drafting 7th instead of 1st or 2nd in June, the plan still has to be to turn that pick into an impact player who will help the team win in the long run.

[dino7c]

If we finish poorly it means the young guys we already have in the lineup are not nearly as good as we thought

If the team does better than expected it will have a lot to do with Mony, Brodie, Colborne, JG, ect.

seriously though after seeing Carolina last night we should just let this die, Flames are nowhere near these basement teams

[dino7c]

double p

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

That's just it though: we can't ever be sure until it happens. Do you think in Chicago when the Blackhawks drafted Kane in 2006 that they then decided the team was basically set and ready to win a Stanley Cup? No.


The problem is that there is only so much a team can plan for. The Flames cannot plan to be a bottom three team for three years, and then expect to start climbing the standings in year four towards a championship. All they can do is play the chips they have, and do their best to ensure that they get maximum value from them. If the team ends up drafting 7th instead of 1st or 2nd in June, the plan still has to be to turn that pick into an impact player who will help the team win in the long run.

While true, its hard to say.... here is my prediction (could very well be wrong) : of the young players I see as cornerstone players, I would expect at least 4 of these players to be entering their 2nd (perfer 3rd) NHL year. This isn't an isolated rule, also depends on previous year's performance and if we got better or worse, or whether or not we have holes in key positions.

Right now, I see these core players meeting that 2nd or 3rd year min experiance:
Today : Brodie, Monahan
Next year? Brodie, Monahan, Gaudreau*
Year 3 : Brodie, Monahan, Gaudreau
Year 4 : Brodie, Monahan, Gaudreau, Porier, Sven*

Add Gio, Wotherspoon, Colborne, etc at your discretion.

Of coarse there is a transition period, personally just speculating based upon last year and our roster, I think we still have not yet hit the bottom or we are at the bottom, but we will probably be on the upswing next year. I like Treliving's additions of Hiller/Englland and the whole "create competition" philosophy - all his moves have been great IMO. Just wouldn't mind a nice draft pick thats all..... though it seems to be a lot tougher to be as crappy as Florida/Carolina/Buffalo/Edmonton, sweet jesus, can't believe those 4 teams suck so bad.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I think we're all (or most of us are) taking the long view, but some of us think that we already have a lot of good pieces in place and high-end prospects (in various forms) in the bucket that we aren't concerned about high picks over improvement, whereas some are fearing that the talent of our prospect base isn't high enough and worried we won't have enough to get over the cusp. It's a legitmate concern, the problem those of us on the other side have is A) There's no guarantee that high picks turn to highend players, B) There's no reason why later picks can't turn into high-end players. We have 2 4th rounders looking to be two of our future (and now) best players right now, and C) the idea of diving, or whining about the team winning is just straight up annoying. It's a competitive sport played by competitive people with (supposedly) competitive fans. So it's hard for some us to wrap our heads around why someone would see losing as a good thing. We all understand that it nets high picks, but we don't all think those are necessary for success. At some point, I assume, you're going to want a turnaround, why can't it happen this year? If we end up in the playoffs this season, how is it a bad thing? And if you don't think it is, are we going to have to listen to whining (not you necessarily) the entire year until the end of the season when people realize/accept that we are actually going to make the playoffs?

Nothing wrong with the discussion, but guys like Hackey being a dick and thinking other people are clueless for thinking that winning is a good thing definitely fuel the fire.

Might be a dick but never told someone they were clueless for thinking winning is a good thing. And yes I am one of the people you mention that is concerned that our talent won't be enough to get over the cusp. If Bennett, Monahan and Gaudreau all turn into quakity players I still think we are missing that elite talent. There's more than one way to build a team but having a Kopitar, Doughty, Quick sure helps. Especially when you look how deep their supporting cast is beyond that. I don't see those guys in our system. I don't claim to be all knowing or that no one could turn into that but I still think it's missing. I dot want to see this team get stuck in no mans land where we're good enough to compete but don't have the talent to get over the hump and are trying to rely on great drafting, one sided trades or UFA market to do it

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

While true, its hard to say.... here is my prediction (could very well be wrong) : of the young players I see as cornerstone players, I would expect at least 4 of these players to be entering their 2nd (perfer 3rd) NHL year. This isn't an isolated rule, also depends on previous year's performance and if we got better or worse, or whether or not we have holes in key positions.

Right now, I see these core players meeting that 2nd or 3rd year min experiance:
Today : Brodie, Monahan
Next year? Brodie, Monahan, Gaudreau*
Year 3 : Brodie, Monahan, Gaudreau
Year 4 : Brodie, Monahan, Gaudreau, Porier, Sven*

Add Gio, Wotherspoon, Colborne, etc at your discretion.

Of coarse there is a transition period, personally just speculating based upon last year and our roster, I think we still have not yet hit the bottom or we are at the bottom, but we will probably be on the upswing next year. I like Treliving's additions of Hiller/Englland and the whole "create competition" philosophy - all his moves have been great IMO. Just wouldn't mind a nice draft pick thats all..... though it seems to be a lot tougher to be as crappy as Florida/Carolina/Buffalo/Edmonton, sweet jesus, can't believe those 4 teams suck so bad.

Umm..... Bennett?

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Umm..... Bennett?

I made the assumption that he was going to change his name to Sven in a few years
(actually the real reason is I forgot, I had a feeling I was missing someone)

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

To me this is our core moving forward, and it's really not too shabby.

We have different notions of core. I've always understood core to mean the 5 or 6 players who get the most ice time. The difference makers. I see the following future core players in place:

Monahan
Bennett
Brodie

Maybe one of Gaudreau or Baertschi.

Of course, players can surprise and become core players, the way Brodie has. On the other hand, players can disappoint. Just look at Oilers fans counting their chickens before they've hatched. And I'm sure Jets fans figure they have it made in the shade with Kane, Scheifele, Trouba, and Ehlers. Maybe they do. I wouldn't be so sure.

I still think the Flames are 1-2 blue-chip prospects away from having an elite prospect base.

[Goriders]

From what I've seen this year we're not finishing last. There are some HORRIBLE teams in the league this year. If McDavid is the only guy worth tanking for there's no way we're getting him unless we luck out on the lottery.

So my opinion is giv' er and see what we can do. We look to have a relatively competitve team with no dead weight and some great goaltending. Everyone's contributing and they are playing as a team. That goes a long way. I'd rather see the young players on the team learn how to win.

Better to watch a winning competitive team that puts out 110% every night than a bunch of tanking losers. I leave that up to the people of Edmonton.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Might be a dick but never told someone they were clueless for thinking winning is a good thing. And yes I am one of the people you mention that is concerned that our talent won't be enough to get over the cusp. If Bennett, Monahan and Gaudreau all turn into quakity players I still think we are missing that elite talent. There's more than one way to build a team but having a Kopitar, Doughty, Quick sure helps. Especially when you look how deep their supporting cast is beyond that. I don't see those guys in our system. I don't claim to be all knowing or that no one could turn into that but I still think it's missing. I dot want to see this team get stuck in no mans land where we're good enough to compete but don't have the talent to get over the hump and are trying to rely on great drafting, one sided trades or UFA market to do it

This is the biggest difference I think. My opinion is that, IF all those players (and Brodie) reach what their potential is, based on what they've shown so far, they will be elite talents. Monahan's high-end is a player like Kopitar. Brodie's high-end is a player like Doughty. Gaudreau's high-end is a player like Kane. I haven't seen enough of Bennett to make a comparison, but I know he is highly touted. I feel like guys like Poirier, Granlund, Colborne, Seiloff, Wotherspoon etc.. will round out into good complimentary pieces playing a variety different roles on a good team. Maybe we get a nice surprise and Janko ends up being a solid player. Or maybe Colborne makes him redundant, who knows. Colborne could also end up being our Jeff Carter. I grew up playing hockey with that kid and if he gets to a point of using his size and skill together, he's going to be a force. Backlund looks like he could be a Stoll-type, which is a necessary component of a championship team IMO.

At it's core, this is really a discussion about the quality of our prospects/young players and how we view them progressing.

And props for admitting to the dickishness. Many don't or wouldn't.