CP Mafia 3 - Super Smash Mafia - GAME OVER - Darkness Win!

[dissentowner]

After taking everything all in and reading it my two top scum suspects are starseed and puxlut. I have should have never changed my vote from him last day. His inconsistancies are terrible and his flip flopping back and forth is a pretty strong tell. He has also shown he is MOT and where has listening to anything they said helped us at all? People they had on their suspect list that have been killed have flipped town. His partner in crime I believe is Puxlut. I have done my best to show I am town but obviously everybody has different suspicions. I have two powers that can help the town but they are hard to find the right situations to use them in.

Now that Rathji has said he has this, he needs to use it today in case he's night killed?
If he kills a mafia, this guarantees he's town, because he wouldn't vote out his buddy, right?
But if he kills a good guy, this may or may not prove either alliance?
(God, I'm using alot of question marks today.)

[Aeneas]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Now that Rathji has said he has this, he needs to use it today in case he's night killed?
If he kills a mafia, this guarantees he's town, because he wouldn't vote out his buddy, right?
But if he kills a good guy, this may or may not prove either alliance?
(God, I'm using alot of question marks today.)

Agreed, use it today. The only way , if Rathji is mafia, he would use it to kill mafia, is if their numbers are high enough that they can afford the loss.

What a great cover if that was the case.

[mrkajz44]

So I took my lunch break to check over the posts from dissentower and formulate. Nothing huge sticks out, unfortunately. They tend to contribute less often, but still have decent thought processes and do name specific people to target. I will say I am not as suspicious of them now as I was a few hours ago.

[formulate]

First of 3 posts coming up, to keep things shorter.

Thoughts from this morning:

I am really leaning to town on Starseed. Biggest reason for my change is that he said the 'death investigation' failed on Delgar. If he/MOT2 were mafia (meaning the power is made up to begin with), why bother saying it was blocked? Why bother making it up in the first place, making him/MOT2 look really powerful?

Oling tends to fix on a few smaller details and push hard on them. Not saying this is a good/poor/scummy/townish strategy, just an observation.

Rathji is in a tough spot in my eyes. Kill town, tough to get past the stigma of killing a townie with an acquired kill. Kill mafia, thought always in the back of everyone's mind of if it was a clever mafia plan for separation.

[formulate]

2nd, on myself:

I can't really refute the accusation of 'flying under the radar'. You'll notice the change from first few (real time) days formulate to last few days formulate. Real life getting in the way. I won't use it as an excuse, but I also can't say it's going to change back. I do hope the content of my (and everyone's) posts are being scrutinized more for content rather than number.

That said, I actually don't hate the idea of lynching from Starseed's list. Not that a town or even mafia flip will guarantee the alignment of Starseed or the others on the list, I just think it could help clear things up. I know I'm town so my lynch might not help a whole lot, but I guess something to keep in mind.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Now that Rathji has said he has this, he needs to use it today in case he's night killed?
If he kills a mafia, this guarantees he's town, because he wouldn't vote out his buddy, right?
But if he kills a good guy, this may or may not prove either alliance?
(God, I'm using alot of question marks today.)

If I don't use it today, I am a prime target for night kill, because they can eliminate my regular power and my day kill power all in one shot. If I was convinced my death would help the town, I would be all for that option, but I don't think it will.

Ideal situation, we figure out which option to kill that will give us enough information to have a solid connection with one or 2 other players if they turn mafia. Then we pick from those given whatever hunches/evidence/whatever we personally have. Then, we use that info to fuel our town lynch.

So, if you have a suggestion for a day kill, you should follow it up with some kind of evidence for one or two other players that are somehow connected to the player you choose, and your ideal lynch target if they turn up mafia.

This is important that everyone has input into this, so even if you dont have time to scour the whole thread, post what you think. I will not use this ability half cocked based on my person whim or a hunch I have based on a single post

I am fairly busy tonight, as Thursday is my games night, so will go through the final consideration process tomorrow morning, because we need to have lots of time afterwards to determine the ramifications of the result.

[formulate]

3rd, on my personal targets:

Speaking of flying under the radar, Aeneas actually had a post this morning saying that he doesn't have any leads so hopes the rest of us do. Plus he drafted 2 Sabres in the CP draft, so he's either dim or has ulterior motives.

I've been thinking about the possibility of Oling using his hyper-aggressive strategy as a scum cover. His concentration on small details has stood out to me and could be a way of looking like a townie bent on catching inconsistencies (which he may well be).

Number 1 target and my vote still goes to GirlySports. A good number of her posts were theorizing on cults and potential roles, taking concentration off looking for scum. It's also a good way to 'fly under the radar' while still being active in discussion/argument. She's also what I'd call 'mafia-obsessed', trying to figure out their strategy while going out of her way to make sure they don't hear any of ours. She is the only one who feels that way about discussing thoughts/targets. Combine those with poor voting history (though until we get a mafia flip, everyone looks horrible in that regard) and the hammer on RD, she's still got my vote.

Vote: GirlySports

[Wood]

Of course the guy I have as my #1 suspicion has Aeneas, Girly and Oling on his list. All my next biggest suspects. I wanted to vote Baxter, but I figured I'd give Aeneas a chance to show he's town. I actually forgot he was in the game, I didn't have him on my list anywhere until he posted this morning

There's lots of info finally for us to work with, I'm going to try and read through the entire thread over the next few days and see if I can come up with anything solid

[Rathji]

My personal case

Ironically, I don't even have to dig too far because they are all here connected right at the same time. Its almost like they planned it out to plant a seed of doubt about my allegiance , if we manage to pick mafia (which shouldnt be too hard)

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Now that Rathji has said he has this, he needs to use it today in case he's night killed?
If he kills a mafia, this guarantees he's town, because he wouldn't vote out his buddy, right?
But if he kills a good guy, this may or may not prove either alliance?
(God, I'm using alot of question marks today.)

Puxlut plants the seed, in a non-committal way, even pointing out that she is using questions marks, in case we miss that she was asking questions.

Originally Posted by Aeneas

Agreed, use it today. The only way , if Rathji is mafia, he would use it to kill mafia, is if their numbers are high enough that they can afford the loss.

What a great cover if that was the case.

Another person who jumps on that wagon, without question.

Originally Posted by formulate

First of 3 posts coming up, to keep things shorter.

Thoughts from this morning:

I am really leaning to town on Starseed. Biggest reason for my change is that he said the 'death investigation' failed on Delgar. If he/MOT2 were mafia (meaning the power is made up to begin with), why bother saying it was blocked? Why bother making it up in the first place, making him/MOT2 look really powerful?

Oling tends to fix on a few smaller details and push hard on them. Not saying this is a good/poor/scummy/townish strategy, just an observation.

Rathji is in a tough spot in my eyes. Kill town, tough to get past the stigma of killing a townie with an acquired kill. Kill mafia, thought always in the back of everyone's mind of if it was a clever mafia plan for separation.

Really? The back of everyone's mind?

This is a fully laid out plan to lynch based on multiple connections that can trace us back to another immediate lynch target, and if I hit mafia it will almost certainly lead to one or more mafia targets.

Would be suicide for a mafia member to be willing to day kill in this situation.

On top of that, If I was mafia, I would have likely not said anything about my power at all, then sat back and not worried about losing the day kill by dying at night, because it almost certainly wouldnt happen (baring some unrevealed power). Then, if I got close to lynch, just nail whatever townie I felt was the biggest threat at the time.

[Timbo]

The most under the radar player IMO is Aeneas
Does not seem to hunts never starts a theory against another player and is always available to vote with little or no reason.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Wood

There's lots of info finally for us to work with, I'm going to try and read through the entire thread over the next few days and see if I can come up with anything solid

If you do, could you humour me and do it with the assumption that starseed is mafia? Knowing what we know now his posts make more sense if he is mafia than town in my opinion. See if you get the same feel.

Do the same with me if you would like.

[Rathji]

Just a note, since it might have been lost in my 2 larger posts:

I will not consider any person for the day kill that doesn't have more than one semi-strong connection to more than one other player.

[Drury18]

Originally Posted by formulate

I do hope the content of my (and everyone's) posts are being scrutinized more for content rather than number.

See, that's where my exact issue with you is. It's not the number of posts. I can't remember a thing you've posted. Nothing you've said stood out, nothing set you apart, nothing to turn that light bulb on to remember you. That's why I forget you so often and why I think you've probably done a good job of hiding. Hell, when I was posting the list of people in the portal who need to talk more you should have been on it. But case in point, I forgot you were even in the game.

Everyone else, I could probably go through and roughly tell you what their thoughts on the groups are, who they are suspicious of, something they've done that makes me think they are town or scum (or sometimes one of each). Except you.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by formulate

That said, I actually don't hate the idea of lynching from Starseed's list. Not that a town or even mafia flip will guarantee the alignment of Starseed or the others on the list, I just think it could help clear things up. I know I'm town so my lynch might not help a whole lot, but I guess something to keep in mind.

This part stood out to me, I don't know why but it just sounds weird to me. Can you elaborate how lynching you is less helpful than lyching any other townsperson?

[Oling_Roachinen]

So formulate is number 1 on wood's list, he's on starseed's list, rathji's list, my second top suspect and has drury18's suspicion?

I know if he reveals mafia me and starseed will still remain suspicious of one another but at least we will have something more to go on.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by formulate

3rd, on my personal targets:

Speaking of flying under the radar, Aeneas actually had a post this morning saying that he doesn't have any leads so hopes the rest of us do. Plus he drafted 2 Sabres in the CP draft, so he's either dim or has ulterior motives.

I've been thinking about the possibility of Oling using his hyper-aggressive strategy as a scum cover. His concentration on small details has stood out to me and could be a way of looking like a townie bent on catching inconsistencies (which he may well be).

Number 1 target and my vote still goes to GirlySports. A good number of her posts were theorizing on cults and potential roles, taking concentration off looking for scum. It's also a good way to 'fly under the radar' while still being active in discussion/argument. She's also what I'd call 'mafia-obsessed', trying to figure out their strategy while going out of her way to make sure they don't hear any of ours. She is the only one who feels that way about discussing thoughts/targets. Combine those with poor voting history (though until we get a mafia flip, everyone looks horrible in that regard) and the hammer on RD, she's still got my vote.

Vote: GirlySports

You're making the same points about me from Day 2 which nobody is buying. I have no longer talked about the cults since I rejected the letter. You also say you wouldn't mind lynching someone on Starseed's list but then continue to vote for me (I'm not on his list). And the mafia-obsessiveness? How is trying to figure out mafia strategy while going out of my way to make sure they don't hear any of ours a bad thing for us? They are winning right now so whatever we've been doing hasn't worked.

You and I have the same conclusion, that Starseed is town. I also think Timbo is town so I was not involved in Day 3's voting.

I'm still on GGG.

Vote
GGG

I was already suspicious and this morning his reveal of ECF's actions made me even more suspicious. All of Day 3 he said that ECF visited him and one other. Never saying who that one other was. ECF dies overnight, his blood isn't even dry yet and GGG comes out and says ECF went to poison him and save Wood. Mighty convenient to talk about something the dead cannot defend.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Rathji

Just a note, since it might have been lost in my 2 larger posts:

I will not consider any person for the day kill that doesn't have more than one semi-strong connection to more than one other player.

Timbo and Formulate have that dual epiphany earlier. They may have since been playing with the aim of keeping themselves appear separate, as I cannot recall them aggressively targeting each other or defending each other. I will have to look back.

I know this may sound paranoid, but I get a feeling that Oling has been playing two different ways with his two mafia buddies since the suspicious double post. With Timbo, it is aggressive defense, with Formulate, it is aggressive separation.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by starseed

Timbo and Formulate have that dual epiphany earlier. They may have since been playing with the aim of keeping themselves appear separate, as I cannot recall them aggressively targeting each other or defending each other. I will have to look back.

I know this may sound paranoid, but I get a feeling that Oling has been playing two different ways with his two mafia buddies since the suspicious double post. With Timbo, it is aggressive defense, with Formulate, it is aggressive separation.

I feel with formulate his post about being okay with the hammer on you and then not doing it was a way to cover his bases with you. If you get lynched and show mafia he was okay with the hammer, but still gave the mafia a chance to save you and comes in an votes for you when you are safe.

But that's fine, we both think he is mafia. About the only thing we agree with each other on, maybe we should act on it.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by starseed

Timbo and Formulate have that dual epiphany earlier. They may have since been playing with the aim of keeping themselves appear separate, as I cannot recall them aggressively targeting each other or defending each other. I will have to look back.

I know this may sound paranoid, but I get a feeling that Oling has been playing two different ways with his two mafia buddies since the suspicious double post. With Timbo, it is aggressive defense, with Formulate, it is aggressive separation.

Which? Can you quote posts for context?