CP Mafia 3 - Super Smash Mafia - GAME OVER - Darkness Win!

[GGG]

Breaking down the Starseed scenarios

If he is town and MOT and telling the truth, just before we lynch his mason buddy will come out and defend him. There is no way the mafia could afford to lose two members on one original claim. So if we pursue the vote on Starseed we know we either lynch scum or reveal 2 known townies who both validate themselves in the MOT thread.

The nice thing about this is that going into Night 3 we will have 4 living fairly confirmed townies. Wood, ECF, Starseed, Mason2. If no one claims in a reasonable time we lynch him. Which means even with two possible kills we still keep two confirmed townies alive.

I think taking Starseed to near lynch makes a lot of sense at this point. The value of the mason is that you have an in game idea filter so you don't post all the paranoid crap so you look very credible. That aspect of the mason power is gone now for Starseed though still present for his partner. So as long as we are comfortable with outing his partner Starseed is probably the best target.

[GGG]

Only 9 required to hammer so no one vote until a reasonable time has passed for his buddy to disclose himself

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Looks like there is 8 votes on starseed now, just an FYI.

While starseed is sticking to his story quite well, the truth is I don't see another good candidate at this point. I think trying to get the Guardian invites to stop is a good reason too (Drury mentioned this); these groups have been extremely distracting.

This Timbo / GGG exchange is a bit odd - throws both of them up on my radar list. I don't think two townspeople works argue like that over 10+ posts. Actually, this really pushes Timbo up near the top of my mafia list for now.

Post 2061 Who started it? I ended it with truth.GGG's question is such an empty inquiry.
This is the second night you were GGG's lackey? Care to elaborate?

So just for the record, you are in agreement over GGG's senseless logic and attack of why I logged in as who I did?

Yes or No? please answer as you seem to run and hide alot.

Really... you are actually aligning yourself with this train wreck of thought?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Wood

Anyone else find it suspicious these 2 comments were posted back to back?

Pika does in the post right above yours.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So I just voted for starseed and said if he flips mafia then Puxlut is next and you think I am on their side? Do explain to me how that works,lol

So all people on here are telling the truth at all times? No mafia have tried deflecting a little inquisition on another mafia member to save their team when they get accused later? Pika needs you to give your head a shake.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Breaking down the Starseed scenarios

If he is town and MOT and telling the truth, just before we lynch his mason buddy will come out and defend him. There is no way the mafia could afford to lose two members on one original claim. So if we pursue the vote on Starseed we know we either lynch scum or reveal 2 known townies who both validate themselves in the MOT thread.

The nice thing about this is that going into Night 3 we will have 4 living fairly confirmed townies. Wood, ECF, Starseed, Mason2. If no one claims in a reasonable time we lynch him. Which means even with two possible kills we still keep two confirmed townies alive.

I think taking Starseed to near lynch makes a lot of sense at this point. The value of the mason is that you have an in game idea filter so you don't post all the paranoid crap so you look very credible. That aspect of the mason power is gone now for Starseed though still present for his partner. So as long as we are comfortable with outing his partner Starseed is probably the best target.

GGG the problem is, is that girlysports and puxlut have already faced accusations for their seemingly alignment of starseed. If stars seed reveals mafia they already the top of the list, especially girlysports for me. So coming in and saying one of them are his mason buddy will give them at least another day if the vote does change.

I don't doubt that starseed is working with someone in the MOT threads, just don't see a reason to assume they are town. At this point a starseed death would reveal more to the town than anything else. If he is town, we know we can trust the other MOT, we know he wasn't part of the guardian and eternal mess, we'll know if he actually believes there are two factions, and we'll do it without having to reveal another role. Of course that will likely spell the death of me tomorrow.

If he returns mafia, we can lynch girlysports or take a closer look at puxlut. I'll have no doubt you are town, and along with wood and east coast flame, plus our hidden cop, this will put the town in a great position.

I fear that a reveal by girlysports or puxlut and people hoping off of starrseed will just force a cop reveal.

Still suspicious of formulate though.

[Drury18]

For the...well I've lost count, time I went back through all the threads.

You know what's funny? I can find Starseed and GGG working together since Day 1.

When I made that post about GGG on Day 1, starseed voted for GGG but then put in a remark how I might have just attacked a dissenting townie. So you vote for someone, but also protect them?:

Originally Posted by starseed

A squiggs flip could tell us more than a bizaro flip, but I think flipping GGG will tell us either that bizaro is likely mafia, and squiggs is likely town, or that Drury attacked a dissenting townie and no mafia tried to pull the vote off of bizaro.
Vote: GGG

There's also this post from Day 3 where he puts GGG on the top of his scum list, but again, mentions me pointing the finger I might be scum because I defended someone who went after GGG, then says it's too risky to lynch him and moves away from it completely:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1888

(Quoted only relevant to my point parts of the quote. Can read the full thing from the post link)

Originally Posted by starseed

GGG
Voted for oling when the town was on Bizarro. Correctly noted that no one was defending bizarro by trying to steer the conversation toward another inactive player, like Baxter. My paranoia is saying that he made up the tracking thing to support our belief that ECF is the doctor, but I tend to think that paranoid thought is stupid. I wanted him on the list to see more pressure from him.

Drury defended Oling after the GGG accusation. I think mafia wouldnt be so open about that, but it might be worth looking into if we run out of other leads and Oling flips mafia.

I went back to the list of people that revealed their character, and in what order, and I noticed that I have the top 5 as unknowns (I include ECF). The bottom half of the list was heavy in confirmed townies from my perspective.
They are:

GGG
Oling_Roachinen
Formulate
East Coast Flame
Stazzy33

I am now thinking that the mafia compared characters, saw that they were all random, so decided to get everyone to reveal, and use that as an excuse to vote out a townie. I have a good feeling that the above list has a couple mafia. GGG is at the top of the list. Oling is second. Formulate is third.

My theory is that mafia strategy aimed at hiding, is to kill players that they have not targeted, and to vote for themselves, if it is safe to do so, or vote for targets that are not going to be hit, and thus turn up town. Perhaps I should ignore Baxter/Squiggs for now, and chalk it up to them being inactive and just voting for the target du jour.

So, my list becomes-
GGG
Oling
Formulate/Timbo

Maybe Stazzy or Mrkajz (Mrkaj was also an early character reveal)

GGG is too risky with the lynchproof claim. Plus, my gut is telling me that I am wrong about him. However, my gut is often wrong in this game.

Starseed's actually protected GGG a few more times in a similar way:

Originally Posted by starseed

I have reviewed ECF's posts, and went through paranoia mind games with myself in trying to see links between him and other posters.

He was quick to attack GGG for stopping the bizaro (proven townie) vote train. The logical inconsistencies are too hard to ignore, and the behaviour surrounding the Eternals joining and voting Matt was bizarre.

I think he is my top pick at this point.

Unvote
Vote: East Coast Flame

Originally Posted by starseed

Town:

-GGG : I could be completely wrong about him, but he voted against the bizaro train when it was in full motion. Mind you, if he were mafia, he would know biz would flip town, which would add to his credibility late in the game. Maybe he killed biz to build that credibility? But I am leaning to those thoughts being paranoia. My gut is saying town. I think we need townies to go against the mob when they feel the mob is on the wrong track.

And GGG protecting starseed:

Originally Posted by GGG

So if we put aside the GP_Matt situation where do we go next.

Option 1 hmmhmmcamo. he is either a power role or mafia. He has plenty of time to post when accused but lays low when not pressed. I am leaning toward power role based on his desire to make a contribution to the town defense.

Option 2 Girlysports - works to keep information private, advocated for quick lynch.

Option 3 try to lynch our 3rd cult member since the first two worked out so well. I don't have an opinion on Starseed.

Option 4 Lynch Squiggs inactive and enjoying the beaches.

Either way if we pick scum we have now failed to lynch our last 3 attempts. Sooner or later we need to lynch someone or we will all disclose our powers and the mafia wins.

They only get "sort of" suspicious of each other:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15
I think low post count, high vote count could also been seem suspect behaviour. You just show up to vote, probably whatever the group is voting without trying to help figure out who the mafia members are.

Originally Posted by GGG

The two that standout by that metric are Starseed and MrKajz. MrKajz could also be moved up the vote list as there are 1 or 2 tied at 10. So both of them are voting lots but posting less.

Originally Posted by starseed

I don't want to attach myself too much to GS, as she is in my top 4-6, but I have the advantage of comparing what she said about the invite and what I had. I would expect that some people would be suspicious, but I just dont see enough to jump on her lynch.

As for hmm and squiggs, I feel like it is mafia driven. Like they are trying to smoke out our roles. Squiggs flip could net some good info, though.

As for GGG, also suspicious, but not sure.

Originally Posted by GGG

I still come back to the WIFOMy argument that Starseeds reveal was way too complicated and ackward to be a lie. The lynch all liars policy lynch though is not a bad option as it does help the town in future games as well as this one

(sorry about the third person reference It justs makes it more clear).

When GGG "questions" starseed, it's pretty passive. Same when starseed "questions" GGG. Both are pretty aggressive with the rest of us. The post below, he asked both starseed and GP_Matt. They let GP_Matt say everything and starseed quipped in with short one sentence answers with "I'll post more later".

Originally Posted by GGG

Starseed is now a member of the guardians. GP is a member of the eternals. See first post. Prior to the guardian showing up I was thinking the eternals would be able to talk to the MOTs after death to continue to provide their thoughts now that their is a second group I have the following questions I would like answered by Starseed at GP Matt. Be careful in answering any or all of my questions if you think it would hurt us but also know at this point I am almost ready to lynch one of you to see a flip.
1) have your victory conditions changed
2) did you gain any cool powers (probably don't answer)
3) did you choose to join or were you forced
4) can GP and Starseed talk to each other outside the thread

GGG asked Starseed about Timbo being the other MOT. Starseed didn't answer, GGG didn't pursue it.

Starseed questions GGG's numbers:

Originally Posted by GGG

vote eastcoastflames
the odds of us hitting the doctor are 1/19
The odds of us hitting mafia are 1/5 or better
Taking those odds it is much more probable that ECF is mafia than the doctor.
I realize by doing this it puts me directly in the line of fire for ECF tonight.

Originally Posted by starseed

wut
How did you come up with these odds?

You know what happened with that? GGG and Oiling_Roachman ended up discussing odds for a number of posts. starseed just disappeared from that conversation.


GGG's been quick to point out that he publicly changed his mind about lynching people who joined a group. Do you know when he changed his mind? Yea, changed it right in time for his buddy to send him an invite so he could accept with no consequences

Prior to the GirlySports invite

Originally Posted by GGG

If someone rejects joining the guardians and no one joins it confirms what GP, Starseed, and ECF are saying that they chose to join.
If another guardian appears then it wouldn't have been voluntary and then it's more likely that it's a cult and their victory conditions have changed. We just need to be clear and convincing that anyone who joins gets lynched next.

Originally Posted by GGG

I am definately in favour of lynching the person if they join the guardians tonight or the eternals tomorrow.
This gives us a few things.
It shows it's voluntary, and it stops the spread. Until we see a really cool power used I am not sure it's worth it to possibly lose more townies. If it is a cult they would have answered the win condition question the same way so we don't really know.

After the the mrkajz invite (and yes, this post will be referenced twice, I think it's got a couple tells in it):

Originally Posted by GGG

My thought is two townies are the ones distributing the powers. Therefore it's on the town not to screw up. They also might overlap with the MOTs. I am still suspicious that the leaders have a different win condition but I for one will accept the next offer from either group.

Next offer for either group went right to him.


There's also GGG using starseed's answers for the invites to be "truth" and comparing them to GP_Matt and ECF's:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=927



GGG has mentioned before about the MOT's and them being the twins having the potential to talk. This was Day 2. Now we find out that is the case:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=622

Originally Posted by GGG

I think the MOTs are the twins who can talk to each other like wood and UCB in game one. Post 29 in the chat I think is revealing. The MOTs don't have any extra info YET. My guess is they will have the power to talk to the dead. As they mentioned they have other minor powers.

You have to wonder if this is also true. Except where maybe it's not a pair of townies handing out the power, maybe it's a pair of scum:

Originally Posted by GGG

My thought is two townies are the ones distributing the powers. Therefore it's on the town not to screw up. They also might overlap with the MOTs. I am still suspicious that the leaders have a different win condition but I for one will accept the next offer from either group.

I also found starseed asking questions about the MOT's in the portal that he obviously knew the answer to.

Originally Posted by starseed

Twilight portal - how do you guys know the messages from the twilight portal were not mafia trying to create confusion? Did it seem genuine? What reasons did they give for their list?

Do you know who answered that question? Me then GGG



And then my favorite and why I started to look back on things. When Starseed starts getting a bunch of votes against him (and GGG says he agrees with the lynch now but oh no, too many votes are on so he can't actually place the vote himself), GGG decides to go hard against Timbo for something he's openly admitted to doing himself: Changing names within the Twilight thread. Which appears like an obvious attempt to change the voting direction.



Now I get my name comes up alot with GGG and starseed. ALOT. I'm not in on whatever crap they are pulling. I don't think the fact I got an invite was random by any means. The content of my invite doesn't help either since the Guardians want me to lay off GGG and join the group that starseed and GGG are in. Perhaps they didn't expect me to stay true to my word. Perhaps they figured they could catch me in a lie and then lynch me out next. As I pointed out in my response to Oiling_Roachman, I sure questioned the people who got invites and pointed out a number of things they could have done better. Backseat driving at its best. I don't think they believed I would actually act the way I said I would. I think the "cruel joke" part (in addition to suggesting I'd be friends with GGG) was seeing what I would do about the invite. I bet if I had joined the guardians, GGG and starseed would have organized the lynch against me. I had too many things they could have used against me (posts against GGG and my very bold thoughts on people who got invites) that they could have twisted against me and then had me up for lynching suddenly believing I was the scum that joined the group. Get all suspicion off of them and get me out.

Heck, starseed even had this little nugget to throw at me from earlier:

Originally Posted by starseed

I feel like Drury is the eternals leader? Maybe the eternals leader is mafia?

And look at the timing of the starseed reveal about his powers. AFTER I came to the town and let them know I got the invite and revealed all the details of the invite and said I was ignoring it until the 24 hours were nearly up. What other reason did he have to reveal all that at that exact time? I threw a wrench in their plans. Now...well might as well toss the rest of the tool box in there.

I do apologize for the long post, but I think the length sort of shows what I'm getting at. All of these cannot be coincidence. They can't.

[Drury18]

And this game has officially taken over me. Someone please find me a social life. I just saw it's 3:30am and I've been typing that post out and searching for information for the last 3 hours. On a Friday night.

[starseed]

I am going to grow some balls and say that I am putting my chips on GGG. I am going to say that I think he is town. I am also going to tell MOT2 to remain silent, because a reveal would hurt the town more than it can help it. On balance, my flip provides the best information short of an Oling/Timbo mafia flip. I am not 100% certain about Oling and Timbo, but I am certain that I am town.

I will not, however, pull a CBL and vote myself out. Someone else can do that.

[starseed]

If my theory turns up dry, Baxter(Aeneas) and Squiggs still have that statistic of voting for 3 known townies out of the 4 people they targeted in the first 1500 posts.

HG was ahead of me at one point in posts already (now I am ahead by a few), but alot of it was much less aggrressively pro-town than last game. If he is still posting as much, why is he hunting less?

[starseed]

Oh, and the twilight thread will no longer exist in case people were wondering.

[GGG]

I was hoping for one more night for everyone to see that Timbo was lying or at least misremembering about how he logged to the twilight thread.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Post 2061 Who started it? I ended it with truth.GGG's question is such an empty inquiry.
This is the second night you were GGG's lackey? Care to elaborate?

So just for the record, you are in agreement over GGG's senseless logic and attack of why I logged in as who I did?

Yes or No? please answer as you seem to run and hide alot.

Really... you are actually aligning yourself with this train wreck of thought?

I do not agree with the theory of GGG once you posted a reasonable expatiation.

What I do stand by is I don't think two townies would have a huge argument like that, hence why I think both of you are more suspicious now. The content of the disagreement really has nothing to do with it. I posted that to see if others agree with my thought process.

[GGG]

Given the 24 hr window for acceptance of the guardians it is easily proveable that I did not have an Invite in hand at the time I posted I was pro joining. I think your blood lust for me has led you into reading your invite as threatening instead of humourous.

It is highly likely that the person inviting people into the guardians (puxlut in my opinion) saw that I would accept so sent me an invite.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I do not agree with the theory of GGG once you posted a reasonable expatiation.

What I do stand by is I don't think two townies would have a huge argument like that, hence why I think both of you are more suspicious now. The content of the disagreement really has nothing to do with it. I posted that to see if others agree with my thought process.

That is how I felt with the Oling/Delgar spat. Turned out Delgar was town.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by starseed

I am going to grow some balls and say that I am putting my chips on GGG. I am going to say that I think he is town. I am also going to tell MOT2 to remain silent, because a reveal would hurt the town more than it can help it. On balance, my flip provides the best information short of an Oling/Timbo mafia flip. I am not 100% certain about Oling and Timbo, but I am certain that I am town.

I will not, however, pull a CBL and vote myself out. Someone else can do that.

The one problem with your theory is that the second mason will have no way to prove themselves town once you are dead. It is a waste of your ability to confirm yourself and partner town.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by GGG

The one problem with your theory is that the second mason will have no way to prove themselves town once you are dead. It is a waste of your ability to confirm yourself and partner town.

The cop needs more time, I would assume. If we out MOT2, then that is one less person to hide amongst.

I will go over the numbers.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

GGG the problem is, is that girlysports and puxlut have already faced accusations for their seemingly alignment of starseed. If stars seed reveals mafia they already the top of the list, especially girlysports for me. So coming in and saying one of them are his mason buddy will give them at least another day if the vote does change.

It's gives them another day at the expense of completely outing a mafia member. The link between girly and Starseed and puxlut is terribly weak and certainly not proven like it would be if one of them revealed mafia.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by starseed

The cop needs more time, I would assume. If we out MOT2, then that is one less person to hide amongst.

I will go over the numbers.

If it allows the cop to live 1 extra night then it is a wash as it adds one confirmed townie in exchange for one confirmed townie or it's a net loss if the cops last investigation nets a mafia member. Then we are trading a mob member fro a confirmed townie.

However having four confirmed townies alive puts the mob in a tough position to have to choose between cop hunting and killing our doc and other confirmed townies.

With 17 left The mob would know there are 5 non cops out there instead of 4. Plus 5 of them. With 17 left after lynch that means it would change form 1 in 7 chance to 1 in 6 chance. Not much change it odds.

[starseed]

If the townies who have sort of revealed themselves were telling the truth, the cop would already be down to 3 or 4 people to hide amongst. I think it would be too dangerous.

MOT2 has further info explaining what I was going off of when I made my reveal post. MOT2 could just reveal that if they are going to be lynched.

If the consensus is that revealing is a good idea, then it might make sense as we have a chance at not lynching a townie tonight, and the cop will have a minimum of one more night before the mafia starts hunting them. The problem is, the actual townies would still doubt my list, and revealing the second MOT might end up being a waste.