CP Mafia 3 - Super Smash Mafia - GAME OVER - Darkness Win!

[East Coast Flame]

Well that took quite the turn. Heavens....

Alright my quick thoughts:

-Am I right to assume if we hammer Matt, the day ends? So we end the day without a lynch. Not good.

-Matt has to go. Although I don't think it's worth it to use two lynches on him.

-My poison would work, although I am afraid of some kind of re-direct or block if I use it on him.

-But if I use my poison and he is not dead after tomorrow night wouldn't that make a certain kill for the vig?

-or now that I said that, would the mafia block it anyway to make it seem like Matt is mafia and then we have wasted two abilities on a townie.

Damn it

The vote count is a bit skewed as you counted GP's unvote that he tried to use on himself when we/he was confused about the invisible vote.

Out of formulate's list, the one I think I would like the most is: lynch someone else to reveal a flip (more info) and see if ECF is telling the truth about his kill (he should be able to kill him at night) and/or if there is a vigilante they can also use a kill on GP in case ECF is lying. Then we get a GP flip that will also give us more info. The only thing is if we do a double team on Matt at night, we're essentially wasting a kill. BUT, if there is a redirect then one of them should get Matt?

I just don't like wasting a power that can benefit the town.

If there is a vigilante, that means he killed one our townies by accident on day 1? Maybe we should be looking at telling him/her who our B vote is, so they can vote with the rest of us?

[GGG]

When I am referring to a vigilante it is a townie that can kill during the day. If a townie has a day kill I think we should use it on GP Matt.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I think low post count, high vote count could also been seem suspect behaviour. You just show up to vote, probably whatever the group is voting without trying to help figure out who the mafia members are.

The two that standout by that metric are Starseed and MrKajz. MrKajz could also be moved up the vote list as there are 1 or 2 tied at 10. So both of them are voting lots but posting less.

[formulate]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Out of formulate's list, the one I think I would like the most is: lynch someone else to reveal a flip (more info) and see if ECF is telling the truth about his kill (he should be able to kill him at night) and/or if there is a vigilante they can also use a kill on GP in case ECF is lying. Then we get a GP flip that will also give us more info. The only thing is if we do a double team on Matt at night, we're essentially wasting a kill. BUT, if there is a redirect then one of them should get Matt?

The problem is that ECF's kill is delayed by one day, so we wouldn't be getting that info until day 4. And it seems very likely to be redirected or blocked (pretty good chance one of the mafia has such an ability, regardless of Matt's allegiance (this confusion is great for the mafia).

If there is a vigilante, that means he killed one our townies by accident on day 1? Maybe we should be looking at telling him/her who our B vote is, so they can vote with the rest of us?

A vigilante is a townie with a one-shot day kill, so that's not what happened last night. It could have been a townie with a nightkill power, but I would think a townie would wait until they are more informed before blindly killing.

[formulate]

Hmm looking at mafia wiki, they define a vig as a townie with a night kill (anywhere from one to infinite). So I suppose it's possible, but Mazrim has used vigilante as a one-shot day kill.

I'm thinking the best course of action would be to lynch someone else, and hope that we have a townie with a night kill who can direct it at Matt, while remaining silent. If day 3 comes and Matt is still alive, we'll have to regroup from there.

[East Coast Flame]

At this point I am ok with lynching Hmmmhmhmhmhmhm today.

I think the vig would be a good move at this point too - lose matt and then you will have a guaranteed town to lead tomorrow.

[Drury18]

Originally Posted by GGG

One, you counted unvote a in addition to votes. This increases the disparity between the high and low voters as each vote but the first each day requires an unvote.

The first thing I notice is that the high voters are all high posters and low posters are low voters. This makes sense as if you post a lot your vote will shift with what's happening or your vote will be used to apply pressure.

In order of votes cast followed by posting order

1. GGG - 1
2. Star - 11
3. Oling - 2
4. Wood - 8
5. ECF- 5
6. Gp_Matt - 3
7. Delgar - 4
8. Mrkaj -15
9, Timbo -7
10. Formulate - 14
11. Squiggs -18
12. diss - 10
13Aeneas -19
14. Girly -6
15. Puxlut -9
16. Rathji -17
17. Hmmm -16
18. Drury -13
19. HG -12

A pattern of vote low, high post is consistent with trying to seem active but not leave a trail.

So HG (replacement skews his numbers), Drury, Puxlut, girly fit this pattern with both pux and girly being the most extreme.[/QUOTE]

No surprise the person pointed out as the top voting activity is the one who wants to put the light on the bottom 3. I expected this from you GGG. You didn't disappoint.

Unvoting is a telling statistic and I was not leaving it out. As pointed out by a few veteran players, unvoting is a scum tactic near the hammer to take votes off of their own players. This list isn't just purely about numbers, this is about names. Whose voting, who are they unvoting for, does the vote/unvote make sense with the voting history. Those who are voting/unvoting alot, can they actually explain for each one why they've done it or is it a smoke show? Starseed has voted for 7 different individuals as have yourself. Oiling_Roachman has voted for 6 different people. All of you have used your voting to accuse almost 1/3 of the players just two days in.

As for your "vote kow/high post" and not leaving a trail, while yes I am in that group, I think that involves researching the posts of the people in that group to decide whether that statement fits. For myself, I don't believe I fit into the not leaving a trail category. I'm not posting fluff and then coming in to vote. As well, my votes align with my posts. Both have been fully explained prior to casting. So it's not alot of questions. For the others,
perhaps this applies, but that's where the names of the vote/unvote become crucial. When you look through their posts, does who they voted for match up with what they've said in the game or are these votes just jumping on a bandwagon? If all they post is fluff and have come in and thrown in a vote with the crowd, that's concerning. If they've posted meaningfully and the vote cast is explained, then it's less concerning.

My focus would be more those sitting in the middle of the pack. Scum wants to blend in right? Middle of the pack voting, middle of the pack posting, everyone's going to glance over because now they will see the list and know whose top and bottom. Anyone between 8-12 on your list is in that sweet spot of being active, voting and sort of not drawing attention to themselves in either pattern. Those would be who I'd want to focus on because they've done an excellent job at being right where you need to be. Where have their votes been? Who have they voted/unvoted for? Does it line up with their posts and suspicions up to this point?

The list is a powerful too, as is your manipulation of it. This needs to be used in investigating far more than just looking at the top and bottom and going "Well there you have the extreme's, go get them".

I do have to ask though, why didn't you point out Rathji or Hmmhmmcamo make your bottom list? You named me, Puxlut, GirlySports and HG15, but your bottom 3 are actually HG, Drury and hmmhmmcamo? Rathji is 4th from the bottom, Puxlut is 5th, GirlySports is 6th. If you are going to analyze data, you can't just take out your scum buddies. Not when everyone can actually see what the bottom three are by your own data. Puxlut and GirlySports each casted 6 votes/unvotes, Rathji and hmmhmmcamo 4.

[Hockeyguy15]

FYI, correct me if I am wrong but I believe hmmhmmcamo is at 8 or 9 votes so tread careful so there is no accidental lynch.

[Drury18]

Sorry, botched up the quote job there. Was typing in word and pasted. Need coffee.

Originally Posted by GGG

The first thing I notice is that the high voters are all high posters and low posters are low voters. This makes sense as if you post a lot your vote will shift with what's happening or your vote will be used to apply pressure.

In order of votes cast followed by posting order

1. GGG - 1
2. Star - 11
3. Oling - 2
4. Wood - 8
5. ECF- 5
6. Gp_Matt - 3
7. Delgar - 4
8. Mrkaj -15
9, Timbo -7
10. Formulate - 14
11. Squiggs -18
12. diss - 10
13Aeneas -19
14. Girly -6
15. Puxlut -9
16. Rathji -17
17. Hmmm -16
18. Drury -13
19. HG -12

A pattern of vote low, high post is consistent with trying to seem active but not leave a trail.

So HG (replacement skews his numbers), Drury, Puxlut, girly fit this pattern with both pux and girly being the most extreme.

Originally Posted by Drury18

No surprise the person pointed out as the top voting activity is the one who wants to put the light on the bottom 3. I expected this from you GGG. You didn't disappoint.

Unvoting is a telling statistic and I was not leaving it out. As pointed out by a few veteran players, unvoting is a scum tactic near the hammer to take votes off of their own players. This list isn't just purely about numbers, this is about names. Whose voting, who are they unvoting for, does the vote/unvote make sense with the voting history. Those who are voting/unvoting alot, can they actually explain for each one why they've done it or is it a smoke show? Starseed has voted for 7 different individuals as have yourself. Oiling_Roachman has voted for 6 different people. All of you have used your voting to accuse almost 1/3 of the players just two days in.

As for your "vote kow/high post" and not leaving a trail, while yes I am in that group, I think that involves researching the posts of the people in that group to decide whether that statement fits. For myself, I don't believe I fit into the not leaving a trail category. I'm not posting fluff and then coming in to vote. As well, my votes align with my posts. Both have been fully explained prior to casting. So it's not alot of questions. For the others,
perhaps this applies, but that's where the names of the vote/unvote become crucial. When you look through their posts, does who they voted for match up with what they've said in the game or are these votes just jumping on a bandwagon? If all they post is fluff and have come in and thrown in a vote with the crowd, that's concerning. If they've posted meaningfully and the vote cast is explained, then it's less concerning.

My focus would be more those sitting in the middle of the pack. Scum wants to blend in right? Middle of the pack voting, middle of the pack posting, everyone's going to glance over because now they will see the list and know whose top and bottom. Anyone between 8-12 on your list is in that sweet spot of being active, voting and sort of not drawing attention to themselves in either pattern. Those would be who I'd want to focus on because they've done an excellent job at being right where you need to be. Where have their votes been? Who have they voted/unvoted for? Does it line up with their posts and suspicions up to this point?

The list is a powerful too, as is your manipulation of it. This needs to be used in investigating far more than just looking at the top and bottom and going "Well there you have the extreme's, go get them".

I do have to ask though, why didn't you point out Rathji or Hmmhmmcamo make your bottom list? You named me, Puxlut, GirlySports and HG15, but your bottom 3 are actually HG, Drury and hmmhmmcamo? Rathji is 4th from the bottom, Puxlut is 5th, GirlySports is 6th. If you are going to analyze data, you can't just take out your scum buddies. Not when everyone can actually see what the bottom three are by your own data. Puxlut and GirlySports each casted 6 votes/unvotes, Rathji and hmmhmmcamo 4.

That's what I was trying to say.

That the 2 townies that were killed on night one, may not have both been killed by mafia. One might have been killed by a townie that thought his/her kill was going to reveal scum, but it backfired.

[Drury18]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

The vote count is a bit skewed as you counted GP's unvote that he tried to use on himself when we/he was confused about the invisible vote.

I also don't think starseed or aeneas voting for each other was serious either (it seems to have a joking vibe about it, probably from the last game) but I wanted to be transparent that anything labelled a "Vote" or "Unvote" was on that list. I wasn't picking and choosing what data was extracted and included.

[Timbo]

Well after a nights rest I think we cant risk the lynch on GP_Matt. We have to move on as distasteful as that is.

That puts us in undesirable position of possibly getting another role reveal.
I am willing to stick with hmmhmmcamo because even if he does flip townie he has not been playing well IMO.

His reason 1. Not wanting the game to go the way game 2 went.
So by not participating he feels his avoidance will drastically mitigate a cluster fata? He sure thinks a lot of himself

I think this is his reason 2. He wants to stay alive past day 2. Okay reasonable but selfish however it's not the way I would play it out by lurking not hunting and only coming out when getting called out.

As Mr. Game and Watch I think we should release the octopus on hmmhmmcamo and if he does flip town we make a nice headstone for him and thank him for his sacrifice.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by GGG

The two that standout by that metric are Starseed and MrKajz. MrKajz could also be moved up the vote list as there are 1 or 2 tied at 10. So both of them are voting lots but posting less.

I agree that I do stand out on the list when looking at the raw numbers. However, I think we need to use the list as just part of the information when making a decision. Some posters, including myself, tend to have longer and more drawn out posts with lots of logic and discussion in them, while others tend to post shorter ones with less points discussed per post.

In my eyes, content of posts is more important than post count. I'm sure if you searched for my posts, you'll see that the majority of them are somewhat longer, and generally have at least a paragraph or two of discussion, if not more.

Again, not saying the list provides go info, but I think we always need to take it in context.

As for Matt, I think the ECF poision idea is the best. All we know is Rathji's night ability was re-directed. There are several posibilities for this.

1)One person's night ability is re-directed at night at random - somewhat unlikely but a possibility

2)Townperson re-directed his night ability as they were suspicious of Rathji on day one - this seems fairly likely as there was a ton of speculation on the first day and it would be hard for a townie to decide who to use the re-direct on

3)Mafia re-directed his night ability - also likely, but less so than option 2 in my opinion. Why pick Rathji specificly? I don't really have the answer to that and can't see anything in Rathji's day one posts to support it

4)Rathji is lying about the re-direct - another possibility, but I do think Rathji is telling the truth

With all this uncertianty, trying to plan around assumptions we've made on this re-direct (where the general talk is saying mafia have this power) is sort of moot in my opinion as we really don't know. I think Matt is telling the truth about being unlynchable, so if we still want to get him, the ECF poision is the best option, in my opinion.

[Wood]

Sorry, you may be town, but what we learn from your death benefits the town. Also it's just been a huge distraction

Kill: GP_Matt

[Hockeyguy15]

Well that escalated quickly.

[Timbo]

Boy Wood I'm glad I never pissed you off in this game it would be Deja vu all over again.

To defend myself for the votes. The only vote I cast during the first day was for RD (who was lynched) and if I remember correctly, I was one of the first to vote for him, so I didn't just jump on the bandwagon.
After GP's reveal everyone started to bail, so I assumed (sorry) that people were going to start voting for our #2 choice.
I can see both stances. People that are confident in their pick and stand by them. Or people that change their vote whenever new info comes up and change their mind. Or scum that change their vote to go for a higher threat target to the mafia.
I think to make this data help us, you would have to look at when/why people changed their votes.

[mrkajz44]

Well, that puts all this "what to do with Matt" talk to bed.

I'm sorry I called you a dumb blonde.




I love you.

[East Coast Flame]

Boom