Ebola now in US

[FlameOn]

One other thing I didn't know was sweat and the skin of Ebola patients is apparently extremely contagious as well.
http://www.aabb.org/tm/eid/Documents/72s.pdf

Scientist are now saying, given the current rate of spread, Ebola will likely spread to France and UK by the end of the month.

* 75 percent chance virus will hit France by Oct 24

* 50 percent chance virus will hit Britain by then

* Data based on disease spread, airline traffic data

* With flight restrictions, those numbers 25 and 15 percent

France is among countries most likely to be hit next because the worst affected countries - Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia - include French speakers and have busy travel routes back, while Britain's Heathrow airport is one of the world's biggest travel hubs.

France and Britain have each treated one national who was brought home with the disease and then cured. The scientists' study suggests that more may bring it to Europe not knowing they are infected.

http://www.trust.org/item/20141005111355-ecbij/?

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

A mutation to do so would be advantageous to the virus and the Ebola virus is mutating.

I've haven't heard this at all. There has been the basic fear-based news reporting in the US of "What if it mutates?? We are doomed!" but haven't heard anything from the medical or scientific community that the virus is mutating. Actually, the scientific community is telling everyone to calm down about the mutations.

This is how fear and panic starts - stating something as fact when its an opinion.

[Thor]

This graphic is excellent, hope everyone enjoys this information.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Thor

This graphic is excellent, hope everyone enjoys this information.

Originally Posted by photon

Fata

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Thor

This graphic is excellent, hope everyone enjoys this information.

The chart kind makes it look like Ebola is not a big deal but the numbers are something to look at.

Hep C has killed over 7 million people in the last 25 years and 150-200 million suffer from it worldwide. (about 20% will eventually die from it)

HIV/Aids has killed over 36 million in the last 35 years and another 40 million are living with it. (question is ..for how long?)

[Kerplunk]

The chart doesn't mention that the R0 can be different between different outbreaks, depending on location, intervention parameters, etc. Besides, even with only an R0 of 2, if nothing is done to prevent the spread (bring the R0 below 1), then it will still be an exponential(ish) spread, just take longer to hit the entire population.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by T@T

The chart kind makes it look like Ebola is not a big deal but the numbers are something to look at.

Hep C has killed over 7 million people in the last 25 years and 150-200 million suffer from it worldwide. (about 20% will eventually die from it)

HIV/Aids has killed over 36 million in the last 35 years and another 40 million are living with it. (question is ..for how long?)

A really, really important point to add to that though is that you can't relate outcomes/disease burden of to R0. This is especially true you look at mortality rates. The HSV has a far, far higher R0 but much lower mortality.

The reason Ebola mortality rates and infectious rates are higher in 3rd world countries is certainly complex, but it certainly isn't relevant to here. The same goes for HIV and Hep C. Hep C is unique because it requires percutaneous transmission for the most part (sharing needles). Mortality rates in the US for Hep C is low and mostly due to lack of care.

Just trying to balance what looks more sensational than it really is

[FlameOn]

First case of Ebola from transmission outside of Africa. Spanish nurse was part of the team treating a Spanish citizen who caught the disease in Africa. That patient has since died but the nurse has now become infected with it.

The Spanish health minister has confirmed that a nurse who treated a victim of Ebola in Madrid has tested positive for the disease.

The nurse is said to be the first person in the current outbreak known to have contracted Ebola outside Africa.

Health Minister Ana Mato said the woman was part of the team that treated Spanish priest Manuel Garcia Viejo, who died of the virus on 25 September.

This is concerning because the transmission happened in a first world country where the level of precaution fighting the virus was high. Spanish containment is a far better compared to what is used in Africa


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29514920

EDIT: And a second nurse has reportedly been infected

[Codes]

Containment is only as good as the people practicing it. If they aren't following all of the necessary precautions, either due to inexperience, laziness, or ignorance, accidents will occur. Despite the advanced systems in place here, very skilled and diligent workers are required to ensure effectiveness. Wonder if that was the case in Spain?

[ernie]

Honestly, medical personnel are often extremely laissez-faire when it comes to their own protection. If they feel something gets in the way or is at all uncomfortable they will often not wear that piece of protection.

You see it quite often in imaging (X-ray, MRI etc). In many places the personnel are supposed to wear dose badges or rings but never do. This is a known issue emergency medicine imaging and one that is becoming increasingly concerning.

[Harry Lime]

I don't have time to run a search other than a quick google one, which was uninformative, and read first and last page here. Have any first world nations issued travel restrictions from African nations, or is it business as usual?

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

I don't have time to run a search other than a quick google one, which was uninformative, and read first and last page here. Have any first world nations issued travel restrictions from African nations, or is it business as usual?

I think it is business as usual, even in the hardest hit areas. There is additional signage and screening at airports, etc, but no bans are in place yet.

From what I garner Ebola doesn't end up being that infections when compared to other diseases (like Hep C, mumps, HIV), so perhaps that is why no real bans are in place. If I can track down a copy, I'll post this neat infographic that breaks down the different spread rates between diseases.

[BigNumbers]

Originally Posted by Ducay

... If I can track down a copy, I'll post this neat infographic that breaks down the different spread rates between diseases.

Not sure if this is it or not, but thought it was relevant:

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by BigNumbers

Not sure if this is it or not, but thought it was relevant:

[Super Nintendo Chalmers]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Ebola can't get here fast enough.

[Senator Clay Davis]

He's dead

The first person to be diagnosed with Ebola in the U.S. has died, a Dallas hospital announced minutes ago.

Liberian Thomas Eric Duncan, who recently traveled from West Africa to Dallas, had been in isolation at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas since Sept. 28.

It wasn’t immediately known what would happen to his body, which could remain contagious for several days. Guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention call for the remains to be immediately shrouded in plastic and double-bagged in leak-proof bags at the hospital, then promptly cremated or buried in an airtight casket.

Duncan’s death comes four days after his condition was downgraded from serious to critical. Over the weekend, he had begun receiving brincidofovir, an experimental antiviral drug which recently gained emergency approval from the FDA.

Duncan, 42, is also the first person known to die of Ebola in the United States. The highly contagious virus has killed more than 3,400 people in West Africa in 2014, the World Health Organization estimates.

http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-patient-...201613535.html

[Cowboy89]

Well now the 21 day countdown starts in the US. If they can make it to the end of the month without a new case then they will have successfully prevented outbreak from this one man. Hopefully it doesn't end up like that Spanish nurse.

[Ducay]

Did he get Zmapp?

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

This is concerning because the transmission happened in a first world country where the level of precaution fighting the virus was high. Spanish containment is a far better compared to what is used in Africa

As others have mentioned, precautionary measures are only as good as the person using them. So I would wait to see if this person cut corners before freaking out.

Also, Ebola spread to Nigeria quite a while back yet they seem to have it under control. So I think the western medical world can handle it.

http://www.theguardian.com/global-de...ce-teach-world

This is awful for the people of Africa, but for a guy in Canada there are way bigger things to worry about killing you.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

As others have mentioned, precautionary measures are only as good as the person using them. So I would wait to see if this person cut corners before freaking out.

Also, Ebola spread to Nigeria quite a while back yet they seem to have it under control. So I think the western medical world can handle it.

http://www.theguardian.com/global-de...ce-teach-world

This is awful for the people of Africa, but for a guy in Canada there are way bigger things to worry about killing you.

Yeah.. like Setoguchi