Flames Offense during the Preseason

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Monahan?

He could score 20. But he's definately not a shoe in.

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by dino7c

19 goals vs. 26 goals its not as crazy as people seem to think

I think the young guys can pick up that slack but yeah still not a ton of offence but honestly who knows

Mayson Raymond would have to increase his goal scoring by almost 50% to go from 19 to 26 goals. That's pretty significant.

[lanny9]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

Mayson Raymond would have to increase his goal scoring by almost 50% to go from 19 to 26 goals. That's pretty significant.

And Raymond was on an better team last year than he will be on this year so to expect better numbers may be stretch imo. Although he should get more minutes, but on a much worse team and facing the other teams shut down lines.

[Enoch Root]

Raymond doesn't have to replace Cammalleri's goals (which is good, because he won't).

I posted this in another thread so apologies but a good way to look at it is who has left and who is replacing them. (and I will include Glencross because he missed so much of last season):

Out:
Cammalleri 26
Stempniak 8
Galiardi 4
Glencross 12

Total: 50 goals

In:
Raymond 15
Setoguchi 10
Bollig 5
Glencross 20
Total: 50

Then if all the returning players are a wash compared to last year, with some higher (Brodie, Colborne) and some lower (Monahan, Giordano), they will score about the same number of goals as last year.

Then there is the wild card that the call-ups will probably score significantly more than the call-ups did last year.

I also expect goals against to be improved this year (slight improvement on defense and pretty significant improvement in goal)

[Poe969]

I don't think it's fair to expect that much from anyone as I think you over shot on your expectations for some if not all of those guys. Setoguchi hasn't shown he can score 2 goals let alone 10, Raymond will be facing other teams top defenders and have less help then he did on the leafs, Glencross could get injured, traded or just have a bad year, expecting 20 from him is a stretch, Gio had an amazing year that he's never done before and expecting him to do it again especially watching him during the preseason.

It's great to be optimistic but I think you're being a little too unrealistic. The team may turn into something even more amazing then anyone thought but all the stars would have to align for that to happen.... Having too high of expectations for this team is a great way to be let down, a couple of rookies could come in and light it up but with our roster, I can't see it happening.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Poe969

I don't think it's fair to expect that much from anyone as I think you over shot on your expectations for some if not all of those guys. Setoguchi hasn't shown he can score 2 goals let alone 10, Raymond will be facing other teams top defenders and have less help then he did on the leafs, Glencross could get injured, traded or just have a bad year, expecting 20 from him is a stretch, Gio had an amazing year that he's never done before and expecting him to do it again especially watching him during the preseason.

It's great to be optimistic but I think you're being a little too unrealistic. The team may turn into something even more amazing then anyone thought but all the stars would have to align for that to happen.... Having too high of expectations for this team is a great way to be let down, a couple of rookies could come in and light it up but with our roster, I can't see it happening.

If he's being optimistic, then you're being ridiculously pessimistic.

Raymond will score 10-15 goals unless he misses half the season. He's never scored less than 10 in a minimum of 40+ games. He had an up year last year, but he can definitely contribute some goals even if he has a down year.

IF Setoguchi can't score 10 goals (that's a big if since he's done it every year), then his replacement surely will. Call up any of Gaudreau, Baertschi, Ferland, Granlund and they can easily score 10 goals.

Expecting 20 goals from Glencross is not a stretch at all at this point in his career. Whether you like him or not he's more than capable of that. Even when injured for a large chunk of last year, he scored 12 goals in 38 games, putting him closer to a 30 goal pace at roughly a 26 goal pace.

He even states that even if Gio has a down year from last year, Brodie is likely to have an increase in production from last year. Monahan down? Colborne likely up.

All he's saying is the offense is likely a wash or very slight downgrade from last year, and he's not wrong. We were just that bad already on offense last year.

[Enoch Root]

no need for me to reply to your post Poe, because Cali completely covered it.

[Poe969]

I just think that Raymond will have a bigger role on this team and face tougher defense with less offensive help, 10-15(tops) is reasonable for him but I wouldn't expect much more. Seto is a wild card in that he could just come here and crap the bed but his call up could do better...if they call someone up because there is no guarantee they would. Glencross should get 20 but we also thought that last year so that's why I said that. I don't think he's injury prone but more has bad luck. This being a contract year may be our saving grace in that he may put in that extra effort to prove his worth. I think Brodie is good but I think his numbers were inflated because of Gio's great year. If Gio takes a step back then I think you see a slide in production from Brodie as well.

I honestly think that our offense over produced last year and expecting even the same sort of offense is a longshot. You can say I'm being pessimistic but I could say I'm being a realist.... look at our roster on paper, even expecting last years total goal output seems like a stretch with this roster.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Count me in for thinking the Flames will remain fairly static in the goal scoring department.

The two biggest goal scorers on the team last year were missing for more than half the season. Glencross was hurt for the majority of the season, and Cammalleri didn't get going until the last third.

Also - 'career years' last year. There were a number of Flames that experienced career years last season. You can make the argument that they will 'come back down to Earth', and I won't even argue. However, one can also make the argument that this team played with effort game in and game out, and that is the reason why some players exceeded expectations last year. Will the same hold true this season? Time will tell, but I wouldn't be so quick to write them off and think they will regress too much, if at all. For all we know, some of these players take another small step forward.

I think on paper, the Flames haven't regressed much at all in offence. It will be scoring by committee. When that committee is playing hard every night, they should be able to match last season's mark, or come close.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I think it will be fairly static as well, which means pretty horrible on the whole. Goals against should be a little better, with an upgrade in goal and a slight upgrade (I think) on D.
I would be surprised if we don't struggle. Hopefully we can avoid those stretches where we are getting shutout almost every other game (just after Christmas last year). Those are soul sucking stretches.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

I think it will be fairly static as well, which means pretty horrible on the whole. Goals against should be a little better, with an upgrade in goal and a slight upgrade (I think) on D.
I would be surprised if we don't struggle. Hopefully we can avoid those stretches where we are getting shutout almost every other game (just after Christmas last year). Those are soul sucking stretches.

We're missing a playmaker in the lineup - outside of Hudler I don't see any forwards who make others better. Gaudreau would fill that need and could help the scorers score more, particularly on the PP

[ForeverFlameFan]

It'll just depend on injuries and/or consistency.

Our floor is obviously last place, our ceiling is around 21st in the league. I think depending on our play, we'll be drafting 3rd-7th.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by edslunch

We're missing a playmaker in the lineup - outside of Hudler I don't see any forwards who make others better. Gaudreau would fill that need and could help the scorers score more, particularly on the PP

I could see Baertschi filling this role as well, he just needs to make higher percentage plays. He's a great passer. Actually we have a pretty good mix of playmakers/shooters in our prospect pool IMO. In our actual lineup (ie. vets) you're right we don't really have a playmaker besides Hudler. But we don't really have much of anything.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

If he's being optimistic, then you're being ridiculously pessimistic.

Those are some interesting points, but I think that the amount of goals a player will score is more related to how he is being utilized rather than the amount scored during the previous season. For example, Matt Stajan under B. Sutter was a 0.3PPG player during the 2011-12 season. The following season under Hartley he became a 0.55PPG player. It could be contributed to a new system and a new coach, but mostly it was the increased responsibility.

This year before predicting scoring based on the previous season, we really need to consider who will Hartley prefer and in what situation. Suppose Setoguchi could be a 15 goal player, if he is given PP time consistently; However, if he is given that ice time someone else's goal totals will be significantly lower. In fact, he can only contribute 5 goals the entire season if he is used on the 4th line. That logic is what D. Sutter did wrong when he assembled a team of 20 goal scorers. Obviously there are exceptions, for example Glencross that has always generated most of his points during even strength.

Now I am more interested to know who do you think will be the more sheltered players? who do you expect to see on the PP? and how do you think it will affect their numbers from last year.


Also, quite a few people pointed out that garbage goals and deflections will be most likely our weapon of choice. I mostly agree especially since I have seen how opponent teams start to shy away from contact with our team, after a few well placed hits. It in turn leads to mistakes and giveaways. On the other side the amount of odd man rushes that the Flames generated seemed to be considerably less than during the previous season. I still hope it will be a weapon the Flames use more and more effectively as the season goes on.

EDIT: One last questions, do you think the Flames generated a sufficient amount of goal scoring opportunities during the preseason, or did the scoreboard reflect the lack of offense accurately?

PS: Great discussion, quite a few interesting points made.

[JetsFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Monahan23

well we replaced Cammy with Raymond in an already bad offence.

Cammalleri
26g, 19a, 45 pts, -13, 46%FO, TOI/G - 19:50

Raymond
19g, 26a, 45pts, -6, 43.8% FO%, TOI/G - 17:23

Raymond played all 82 games, Cammalleri missed 19 games. Statistically Raymond = Cammalleri, less points per game, but same offensive contribution and he stayed healthy. So we lose 7 goals. Who's to say nobody else will step up this year? Maybe Gaudreau gets six or seven in his first 10 games

[Erick Estrada]

There's a couple of decent blueliners and goaltending is middle of the pack but offensively it's going to be a struggle to find the back of the net most nights. Depending on how the high the effort level and commitment do defense this could be the season the Flames finish bottom 2 with the Sabres.

[calgaryred]

Flames will be one of the worst offensive teams this year I expect lots of games we will be shut out

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Those are some interesting points, but I think that the amount of goals a player will score is more related to how he is being utilized rather than the amount scored during the previous season. For example, Matt Stajan under B. Sutter was a 0.3PPG player during the 2011-12 season. The following season under Hartley he became a 0.55PPG player. It could be contributed to a new system and a new coach, but mostly it was the increased responsibility.

This year before predicting scoring based on the previous season, we really need to consider who will Hartley prefer and in what situation. Suppose Setoguchi could be a 15 goal player, if he is given PP time consistently; However, if he is given that ice time someone else's goal totals will be significantly lower. In fact, he can only contribute 5 goals the entire season if he is used on the 4th line. That logic is what D. Sutter did wrong when he assembled a team of 20 goal scorers. Obviously there are exceptions, for example Glencross that has always generated most of his points during even strength.

Now I am more interested to know who do you think will be the more sheltered players? who do you expect to see on the PP? and how do you think it will affect their numbers from last year.


Also, quite a few people pointed out that garbage goals and deflections will be most likely our weapon of choice. I mostly agree especially since I have seen how opponent teams start to shy away from contact with our team, after a few well placed hits. It in turn leads to mistakes and giveaways. On the other side the amount of odd man rushes that the Flames generated seemed to be considerably less than during the previous season. I still hope it will be a weapon the Flames use more and more effectively as the season goes on.

EDIT: One last questions, do you think the Flames generated a sufficient amount of goal scoring opportunities during the preseason, or did the scoreboard reflect the lack of offense accurately?

PS: Great discussion, quite a few interesting points made.

No question that a player's points will be largely affected by the way they are utilized.

However, overall, the roles don't change. If one player is taken off the PP, another player is put on it. If one player is getting less ice-time, another player is getting more.

So those things balance out.

When we say we can expect the same group of players to get about the same number of goals, that doesn't mean that they will each get the same number, it simply means that, where one is reduced, another should improve.

As for who specifically might get more ice-time, I would think that Hudler and Glencross could both see significant PP time - same for Giordano and Brodie.

[FBI]

Originally Posted by calgaryred

Flames will be one of the worst offensive teams this year I expect lots of games we will be shut out

If we get shut out a lot, I expect our skilled guys to get called up..

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by FBI

If we get shut out a lot, I expect our skilled guys to get called up..

Don't expect rookies to come in and flick the switch