NHL.com's Top 60 Prospects

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Yes, and quite easily. I hope I'm wrong about Gaudreau but I don't have quite the high expectations as others here.

And you would be ran out of town once Gaudreau becomes the next Paul Kariya while Dal Colle becomes a lesser version of Matt Moulson.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

But would you trade Teravainen for Jankowski?

Yes.

[FlamesAddiction]

I am also still cautious about Gaudreau. There is no getting around the fact that his size give him a high bust potential. I think the scouts are looking at his world class skill combined with that, and are meeting in the middle (which I think is more than fair), hence a 26/60 rating.

Sure, you can say that he has proven doubters wrong at every level so far, but the same can be said about every undersized player that reaches the NHL door step. Most still end up not having long term success.

The fact he is in the top 30 at all, suggests that many are expecting him to break through, which is a huge pat on the back IMO, and not an insult.

[Textcritic]

I understand why Gaudreau was ranked lower than I would have had him, but I specifically wanted to address this:

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

...Sure, you can say that he has proven doubters wrong at every level so far, but the same can be said about every undersized player that reaches the NHL door step...

No, you really can't. At least, you cannot make the same comparison to Gaudreau, because he hasn't just succeeded at every level—he has obliterated it. The reason so many people are as excited about him is because of how exceptionally dominant he has been for a couple of years now. He is a rare talent, and only barely comparable to "every undersized player that reaches the NHL door step" because he is also small. Beyond that, he is on another level than all of them, and by a wide, wide margin.

[getbak]

Here is every league/tournament Gaudreau has played in since he was 15 years-old: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=88391

The 2011 Hlinka tournament is the only one where he wasn't at least a point per game player, settling for 4 points in 5 games.


10 points in 8 games at the World Championships is especially impressive and they weren't garbage points. His PPG in the tournament was higher than Ovechkin's.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Meh, Flames prospects underrated as per usual. Since when did Reinhart have a noticeable gap on Bennett? If I do recall some major scouts including CSS had Bennett ranked ahead of Reinhart.

In reality Gaudreau is top 5. But "his size", blah blah blah...

Let's be honest - if Gaudreau was a Devils or Jets prospect, we would all be going on about his size, like everyone else in the NHL. Some people want to overlook that risk because he's a Flames prospect. Fine. But that doesn't mean people on this board who rate him the same way they would another team's prospect of his size are underrating him.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I understand why Gaudreau was ranked lower than I would have had him, but I specifically wanted to address this:

No, you really can't. At least, you cannot make the same comparison to Gaudreau, because he hasn't just succeeded at every level—he has obliterated it. The reason so many people are as excited about him is because of how exceptionally dominant he has been for a couple of years now. He is a rare talent, and only barely comparable to "every undersized player that reaches the NHL door step" because he is also small. Beyond that, he is on another level than all of them, and by a wide, wide margin.

Cripses, am I going to have to dig through the stats of small players who have posted amazing numbers at every level of hockey short of the NHL? Again?

Players his size, regardless of how many points they score in other leagues - 1.5 point per game, 2 points per game, 2.5 points to game - will always have a big question mark about them until they prove it all over in the NHL. That goes for prospects for every team. Now, 20 years ago, and 20 years in the future. That's just reality.

[savardandjokinen]

I think we should make our own top 100 prospects

[getbak]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Cripses, am I going to have to dig through the stats of small players who have posted amazing numbers at every level of hockey short of the NHL? Again?

Players his size, regardless of how many points they score in other leagues - 1.5 point per game, 2 points per game, 2.5 points to game - will always have a big question mark about them until they prove it all over in the NHL. That goes for prospects for every team. Now, 20 years ago, and 20 years in the future. That's just reality.

It's pretty easy to put together a list of small players who posted stats like Gaudreau's in the NCAA over the last twenty years:

1. Johnny Gaudreau

Done.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Let's be honest - if Gaudreau was a Devils or Jets prospect, we would all be going on about his size, like everyone else in the NHL. Some people want to overlook that risk because he's a Flames prospect. Fine. But that doesn't mean people on this board who rate him the same way they would another team's prospect of his size are underrating him.

There were a lot of folks who were concerned about his size from Day 1. As time has gone on - and as he has shown what he can do at various levels - more and more people have bought in.
While I agree that being a Flame, people are more likely to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I don't know that you can entirely dismiss this as homerism (as you seem to be doing). The reality is that he's done a lot to dispel a lot of the doubts.

People who think he has a good chance to be an impact player - have plenty of solid proof to back that up. The opinions are certainly valid, as are opinions that his size will hold him back.

Those that think his size will hold him back may indeed not be under-rating him, but nor are people that believe in him - overhyping him.

People can have different opinions that are both valid.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by getbak

It's pretty easy to put together a list of small players who posted stats like Gaudreau's in the NCAA over the last twenty years:

1. Johnny Gaudreau
2. Peter Sejna

Done.

Fixed.

[Yrebmi]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Fixed.

A fair comparable so thanks for that. I needed my expectations tempered.
Easy to point out Sejna started his college career and had his best season a year or two older than Gaudreau did, but still fair.

[Street Pharmacist]

I

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

Originally Posted by getbak View Post
It's pretty easy to put together a list of small players who posted stats like Gaudreau's in the NCAA over the last twenty years:
Johnny Gaudreau
Peter Sejna

Done.

A fair comparable so thanks for that. I needed my expectations tempered.
Easy to point out Sejna started his college career and had his best season a year or two older than Gaudreau did, but still fair.

I'm excited about Gaudreau because of how he got those points, and how he plays. His points have been matched by a small player, but the circumstances were far less impressive (Conference, age, only one good season, etc.). I was just being a jerk. I'm probably higher on Gaudreau than most here. I have a bet with an Oilers fan that Gaudreau outscores Perron

[AcGold]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Those that think his size will hold him back may indeed not be under-rating him, but nor are people that believe in him - overhyping him.

People can have different opinions that are both valid.

I thought his size would hold him back, but watching his play over the last year completely changed my stance on that. The biggest concern is if he has his head down and the puck is moving slowly and there's a broken play on the ice, that's when the little guys get leveled. Just needs to keep his head on a swivel when he's in those situations. I've seen one hit on Gaudreau bringing the puck out of his own corner and he was startled as he turned his head as he was ran over.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by AcGold

I thought his size would hold him back, but watching his play over the last year completely changed my stance on that. The biggest concern is if he has his head down and the puck is moving slowly and there's a broken play on the ice, that's when the little guys get leveled. Just needs to keep his head on a swivel when he's in those situations. I've seen one hit on Gaudreau bringing the puck out of his own corner and he was startled as he turned his head as he was ran over.

See this is where there's a big misconception about size on my opinion. Eric Lindros got just as hurt as Kariya from a big hit. Carry the puck with your head down and you'll get hurt. Period

Where size is an advantage is close quarters battles and along the boards. If you watch Gaudreau, that's actually where he excels because he's shifty and users his stick. Almost every other player tries to physically wrestle the puck out or shield it in a battle. Watch Gaudreau's board work in the Vancouver game he comes up with the puck because of anticipation and stick work. He's uninterested in the physical battle and it works for him.

He's no more at risk of injury from a big hit than many other players bigger than him. It's the wearing down of being physical that one might point to, but I wouldn't bet on smaller players being at such a risk.

I'd really be interested if there was any data available

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

While I agree that being a Flame, people are more likely to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I don't know that you can entirely dismiss this as homerism (as you seem to be doing). The reality is that he's done a lot to dispel a lot of the doubts.

Certainly. Which is why he's regarded as a top 30 prospect today, and he wasn't the season after he was drafted. And a top 30 prospect is nothing to sneeze at in a 30 team league. I just don't think, as some have suggested, that there's some kind of bias against the Flames because he's not in the top 5. Has there ever been a 150 lb player regarded as one of the top five prospects for the NHL? At that size the production and skills demonstrated in other leagues don't matter. The only way the question marks will be dispelled is after 100 or 120 games in the NHL. And that wouldn't be a controversial statement around here if he was a Devils prospect.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Certainly. Which is why he's regarded as a top 30 prospect today, and he wasn't the season after he was drafted. And a top 30 prospect is nothing to sneeze at in a 30 team league. I just don't think, as some have suggested, that there's some kind of bias against the Flames because he's not in the top 5. Has there ever been a 150 lb player regarded as one of the top five prospects for the NHL? At that size the production and skills demonstrated in other leagues don't matter. The only way the question marks will be dispelled is after 100 or 120 games in the NHL. And that wouldn't be a controversial statement around here if he was a Devils prospect.

I agree with most of this. Top five prospects typically have big upside and few question marks. Johnny isn't that.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Certainly. Which is why he's regarded as a top 30 prospect today, and he wasn't the season after he was drafted. And a top 30 prospect is nothing to sneeze at in a 30 team league. I just don't think, as some have suggested, that there's some kind of bias against the Flames because he's not in the top 5. Has there ever been a 150 lb player regarded as one of the top five prospects for the NHL? At that size the production and skills demonstrated in other leagues don't matter. The only way the question marks will be dispelled is after 100 or 120 games in the NHL. And that wouldn't be a controversial statement around here if he was a Devils prospect.

It took Gretzky about 5-10 NHL games to dispell the notion that he would be run out of the league as a small player in a much dirtier NHL.

I saw that Gretzky is listed at 185 ..... but that was only 20 lbs lighter than Messier...

just by looking at him I would guess that Gretzky was 185 soaking wet with all his equipment on.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I agree with most of this. Top five prospects typically have big upside and few question marks. Johnny isn't that.

Agreed. Although having magnificent vision and skills and having shone brightly above almost all at every level up to this point , Gaudreau has his greatest challenge in front of him.

The NHL is the best of the best.

There is a good possibility that he will overcome his size issues...but it is nowhere close to being a sure thing.

[cannon7]

One has to assume that teams like the Red Wings are going to get favored in rankings like this and justifiably so. From reports I've read out of their camp, Anthony Mantha is coming in with ~25lbs of extra muscle. Considering the guy is already a beast, I can't imagine how he won't be a factor in the Red Wings' season this year. Was hoping the Flames would pick him up with one of our later first round picks but he was selected higher than expected.