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Old 08-20-2014, 01:05 PM   #1
sureLoss
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Icon48 New Draft Lottery odds announced

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=728795



2016 will also have the top 3 picks chosen by lottery

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Beginning in 2016, the Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.

Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.

The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery draw will be the same as outlined above for the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery. The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 1st Lottery draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 2nd Lottery draw.

Last edited by sureLoss; 08-20-2014 at 01:12 PM.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:08 PM   #2
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Otherwise known as "The Oilers continue to suck and suck and suck" rule.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:09 PM   #3
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Knowing our luck I wouldn't be surprised if we get bumped out of top 4 even after finally getting a top 3 pick.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:11 PM   #4
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Looks like a good policy change.

Helps teams that finish 3rd-10th last as they are usually the teams that get stuck in limbo being bad, but not bad enough to get the super elite talent required to push them over the hump and into contention.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:11 PM   #5
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Bad timing for the Flames at the moment, but something like this was long overdue. Even now, it doesn't go far enough IMO.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:14 PM   #6
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Now and 80% chance you wont get the top player if you finish dead last... Dont like it from a Flames perspective, but what the hell are the oilers gonna do?
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:15 PM   #7
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wish it went further, but happy with the changes

guessing there were too many complaints of some teams (I know Buffalo was vocal) to implement the top 3 lottery for this year
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:24 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oil Stain View Post
Looks like a good policy change.

Helps teams that finish 3rd-10th last as they are usually the teams that get stuck in limbo being bad, but not bad enough to get the super elite talent required to push them over the hump and into contention.
Well that's confusing for those that finish 1st to 2nd last perpetually, would they not be over the hump and into contention then?

Do cite any case studies you know of.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:25 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by cam_wmh View Post
Well that's confusing for those that finish 1st to 2nd last perpetually, would they not be over the hump and into contention then?

Do cite any case studies you know of.
The first and second last teams will have a better chance to win the lotteries, so not sure what your point is?
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:26 PM   #10
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I wished they implemented the 2016 draft changes for 2015. But this will do.

Don't like it if a team tanked in 2015, they are still 100% guaranteed a top two pick. At least the 2015 odds have been amended.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:34 PM   #11
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Love that they are doing this, but feels like it took way to long to implement.

Congratulations Edmonton, you sucked for so long they had to change the rules for you.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:39 PM   #12
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Still fixing the wrong thing. Just put a limit on how many times you can draft high in a set period.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:41 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by J-bo09 View Post
Love that they are doing this, but feels like it took way to long to implement.

Congratulations Edmonton, you sucked for so long they had to change the rules for you.
Sad thing is, now if Edmonton does actually crawl out of the basement there is still a chance they can draft 1st overall.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:41 PM   #14
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I applaud the NHL for looking out for the future of their potential superstars. Perhaps Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov could have turned out to be more impactful players in the NHL had they been drafted by a team that actually knows how to develop and train their top draft picks. By changing the lottery they are allowing players to have a better chance to live up to their draft hype and probably become bonafide NHL stars.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:44 PM   #15
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This begins 2016 so this next draft is safe for us. I hope after 2015 season we start to throw some money around anyways. I'm okay with this.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:47 PM   #16
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Not a fan of the added element of randomness. Or the lottery period. What was wrong with the worst team gets best pick thing again? Why is there movement to get away from that? 10 points if you can make an answer that doesn't include whining about the Oilers
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:50 PM   #17
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All that will matter is that you're roughly in the bottom 5 or 6 to have a decent chance at any of the top 3, being dead last won't mean much anymore, which I really like.

I'll be punching through walls if this bumps us down a spot or two if we have a really bad year, though. But I think next year will be our low point, not 2016, so this could be okay from a Flames standpoint. In fact could be very good for our chances if we're a bottom 5-10 team for a couple years on our way up.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:51 PM   #18
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The numbers are kind of funny... #2 gets disproportionately dinged (lost ~30% relative chance) versus #1 (lost 20%) and #3 (~20%).

Not sure I understand that.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:55 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saillias View Post
Not a fan of the added element of randomness. Or the lottery period. What was wrong with the worst team gets best pick thing again? Why is there movement to get away from that? 10 points if you can make an answer that doesn't include whining about the Oilers
The draft lottery became obsolete once the salary cap and other CBA changes came into effect. That, combined with "loser" points, created an even playing field and parity that the current and previous systems could never create. With the parity issue solved, simply awarding the best picks to the worst teams is pointless and an insult to teams that manage themselves better.

Not to mention that with the standings parity, the difference between the worst teams and the next tier up is not great enough to justify the difference of odds in picking in the top 3.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:57 PM   #20
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I've talked a lot about what they could do... and never came to this conclusion. I like it!
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