Summer 2014 Prospect Ranking Poll Rd 18 Run off (2nd Rounder Battle!)

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

JD Watt had under .5 PPG as a 20 year-old over-ager.

That's just not true.

His 20 yo year he had 37 pts in 58 games = .64 ppg

19 yo year he had 53 pts in 70 games = .76 ppg

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

That's just not true.

His 20 yo year he had 37 pts in 58 games = .64 ppg

19 yo year he had 53 pts in 70 games = .76 ppg

Yes, sorry was just looking at Vancouver and missed the Red Der numbers.

His 18, 19 and 20 year old seasons:

18: 0.63 PPG
19: 0.76
20: 0.64

absolutely no progression

Smith had 0.63 PPG this year as an 18 year old. As I said, if he doesn't progress at all in the next two years, then he'll be on the same train as Watt.

Watt also had 3.01 penalty minutes per game for his junior career, while Smith was at 1.56 last year (and almost nothing prior).

Watt was just an enforcer. Smith isn't.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I don't get this discounting McDonald because he's a goalie. Goalie's have already been discounted and that's why you don't see them picked in the first round anymore. In past years McDonald would probably have been a first round pick.

It took a while as most NHL GMs and management team were better players than thinkers or analysts.

Take the draft fro 10 years ago - all development should be done by now:

Draft pos _ Goalie _ NHL games

6 _ Al Montoya _ 92
14 _ Devan Dubnyk _ 173
17 _ Marek Schwarz _ 6
26 _ Cory Schneider _ 143
37 _ David Shantz _ 0
89 _ Jeff Glass _ 0
90 _ Justin Pogge _ 7
93 _ Dan LaCosta _ 4
94 _ Thomas Greiss _ 69
129 _ Jason Churchill _ 0
137 _ Magnus Akerlund _ 0
139 _ Kyle Moir _ 0
145 _ Michal Valent _ 0
181 _ Loic Lacasse _ 0
185 _ Josh Disher _ 0
186 _ Dan Turple _ 0
189 _ Julien Ellis _ 0
191 _ Karri Ramo _ 88
203 _ Gabriel Bouthillette _ 0
206 _ Anton Khudobin _ 57
213 _ Jimmy Spratt _ 0
215 _ Ian Keserich _ 0
221 _ Daniel Taylor _ 3
228 _ David Brown _ 0
230 _ Justin Mrazek _ 0
232 _ Martin Houle _ 1
234 _ Derek MacIntyre _ 0
238 _ Yutaka Fukufuji _ 4
258 _ Pekka Rinne _ 317
274 _ Bjorn Bjurling _ 0
276 _ Sylvain Michaud _ 0
288 _ Brian Mahoney-Wilson _ 0



Guys picked 191 and greater have panned out the same ( NHL games played) than the guys under 100. 494 for goalies drafted in the top 100 and 470 for the last 100.


for Defence guys picked in the first 100 picks: 5,086 NHL games
last 100 - 1557 3.2 to 1.

forwards guys in the top 100 : 10,671 bottom 100 - 1,815 5.9 to 1


Ortio and Ramo were drafted in the last 100..... Gillies #75 and Hiller never was drafted.


odds are just so very much in favour of a forward drafted in the top 100.... in this case it would be Smith

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by neo45

What is with the random love for HFs ranking system? It is crap...

It's about as useful as using nhl14 to rank players. I like how they have a 10 point scale with four letter grades and they only really use 6, 7 and 8 for the most part and almost always B or C for the grades. Total waste of time.

[SebC]

Smith, but I think both of them were picked too high and are being overrated in the prospect rankings.

[Imported_Aussie]

I went for Smith because I think if he does hit his upside, he is a tougher kind of player to find. How many guys are there who are big, physical and can score - power forwards seem to be a dying breed. I also think his downside is higher than McDonalds, as a guy like Smith who seems super motivated (from the articles/interviews I have seen) will find a way to make it, even if that is as a pure face-puncher

[dustygoon]

I liked the analysis and decision to use that early 2nd on the goalie in order to get the one they wanted. But i still don't know jack about MM. His numbers suck, so i can't go off that. Someone said they saw him a lot and liked him.

How on earth can we rank him as a prospect? Total unknown. How do you measure a guy like him?

[jaymac106]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It took a while as most NHL GMs and management team were better players than thinkers or analysts.

Take the draft fro 10 years ago - all development should be done by now:

Draft pos _ Goalie _ NHL games

6 _ Al Montoya _ 92
14 _ Devan Dubnyk _ 173
17 _ Marek Schwarz _ 6
26 _ Cory Schneider _ 143
37 _ David Shantz _ 0
89 _ Jeff Glass _ 0
90 _ Justin Pogge _ 7
93 _ Dan LaCosta _ 4
94 _ Thomas Greiss _ 69
129 _ Jason Churchill _ 0
137 _ Magnus Akerlund _ 0
139 _ Kyle Moir _ 0
145 _ Michal Valent _ 0
181 _ Loic Lacasse _ 0
185 _ Josh Disher _ 0
186 _ Dan Turple _ 0
189 _ Julien Ellis _ 0
191 _ Karri Ramo _ 88
203 _ Gabriel Bouthillette _ 0
206 _ Anton Khudobin _ 57
213 _ Jimmy Spratt _ 0
215 _ Ian Keserich _ 0
221 _ Daniel Taylor _ 3
228 _ David Brown _ 0
230 _ Justin Mrazek _ 0
232 _ Martin Houle _ 1
234 _ Derek MacIntyre _ 0
238 _ Yutaka Fukufuji _ 4
258 _ Pekka Rinne _ 317
274 _ Bjorn Bjurling _ 0
276 _ Sylvain Michaud _ 0
288 _ Brian Mahoney-Wilson _ 0



Guys picked 191 and greater have panned out the same ( NHL games played) than the guys under 100. 494 for goalies drafted in the top 100 and 470 for the last 100.


for Defence guys picked in the first 100 picks: 5,086 NHL games
last 100 - 1557 3.2 to 1.

forwards guys in the top 100 : 10,671 bottom 100 - 1,815 5.9 to 1


Ortio and Ramo were drafted in the last 100..... Gillies #75 and Hiller never was drafted.


odds are just so very much in favour of a forward drafted in the top 100.... in this case it would be Smith

The next year (2005) the opposite is true with Price, Quick, Pavelec and Bishop being drafted in the first 2 rounds. Do not have time to go through every draft year but it is interesting nonetheless!

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

I liked the analysis and decision to use that early 2nd on the goalie in order to get the one they wanted. But i still don't know jack about MM. His numbers suck, so i can't go off that. Someone said they saw him a lot and liked him.

How on earth can we rank him as a prospect? Total unknown. How do you measure a guy like him?

How about here.

Despite the fact that McDonald might have had a subpar showing on the international stage in the WHC-17, the netminder rebounded for Team Canada at the WJC-18 as he played in six games for Team Canada and recorded a 1.94 GAA and .930 Save Percentage. As a result of his performances in Finland, McDonald was named the top goaltender in the world for his age group – an accolade that is not just hard to achieve, but one that must be worked for with the utmost dedication to one’s craft.

Just because you don't know about him doesn't mean he's an unknown.

http://thehockeywriters.com/mason-mc...spect-profile/

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by SebC

Smith, but I think both of them were picked too high and are being overrated in the prospect rankings.

Out of curiosity, why is that? They're barely in the top 20 and they're both this year's 2nd round picks. The rest of the players are older free agent types with limited upside (or guys with no upside like Thiessen and Acolatse) or older late round picks. The only guys I could see people arguing for over Smith and McDonald would be Culkin and Kanzig possibly or maybe Hickey (but let's be honest may 0.1% of the forum has seen him play even 1 game). I know people are voting for guys like Wolf based off them making the team sooner, but are they really better prospects?