Summer 2014 Prospect Ranking Poll Rd 18 Run off (2nd Rounder Battle!)

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Really? It's one of the more fair and accurate systems I've seen. Nothing is perfect, especially when it comes to prospects, but they get it right way more than they get it wrong.

Do you have a better one? Just curious.

I think it's pretty good too. These types of systems are always debatable.

Only real issue I have with their Flames rankings is "Weaknesses - Elite Top Line Scoring". Looking around at different prospect groups I would say Calgary is in the top 5 in elite top line scoring potential, not sure where they're going with that.

[gilligans_off]

Goalies are crap shoots, just ask Brent Krahn or Leland Irving.

Voted Smith

[CsInMyBlood]

I vote Smith until he is taken off the board. I am excited to see how he progresses this year.

As others have said, goalies are so hard to get a read on at this stage of their careers. That and I have never seen McDonald play a minute of hockey, so I wont vote him at any stage of this poll.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Why do you think Smith is at least a 3 year project? Is it because of his size? Do you think because he's 6'7" that he is therefore similar to Kanzig?

Kanzig is a prospect because of his size. And especially being a defenseman, he has a very long learning curve ahead if him if he is going to make it.

Smith has size, but that's not all - he has good speed, solid hockey IQ, and soft hands.

He is not a 'size' project, he is a legitimate prospect. I would assume his development is on a similar pace with most other forwards.

Yes, he's a legitimate prospect, one that went undrafted the year prior and had a big jump in numbers this year. Dude went from 1 point in the 2 prior seasons getting limited playing time due to injuries and coaching decisions, to scoring 40 points in 64 games, mostly goals. To me all that tells me he's a little behind the kids his age in terms of development. Last year was the first year he got real minutes and a chance to contribute more than just punching faces. He showed he could possibly do a lot more, but there's a lot to be proven and worked on for him to be a legitimate NHL player.

The good news is he has some nice raw tools to work with, and with good development he will be a guy like Ferland (not quite as good) who will need at least another year in junior, and likely 2 in the AHL before he is ready to contribute. Hence, 3 year project.

The NHL is a tough league to crack. Just ask Max Reinhart, Sven Baertschi, Corban Knight etc.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Yes, he's a legitimate prospect, one that went undrafted the year prior and had a big jump in numbers this year. Dude went from 1 point in the 2 prior seasons getting limited playing time due to injuries and coaching decisions, to scoring 40 points in 64 games, mostly goals. To me all that tells me he's a little behind the kids his age in terms of development. Last year was the first year he got real minutes and a chance to contribute more than just punching faces. He showed he could possibly do a lot more, but there's a lot to be proven and worked on for him to be a legitimate NHL player.

The good news is he has some nice raw tools to work with, and with good development he will be a guy like Ferland (not quite as good) who will need at least another year in junior, and likely 2 in the AHL before he is ready to contribute. Hence, 3 year project.

The NHL is a tough league to crack. Just ask Max Reinhart, Sven Baertschi, Corban Knight etc.

He's 18. He's one month older than Draisaitl.

Yes, he went undrafted the prior year but as you said, it was a year of injuries. Also, he was a 17 year old who shot up to 6'7". Finally, he was a few days from not being draft eligible anyway, and simply being a 2014 draft prospect. Had he been born 5 days later and thus not 'gone undrafted', would you look at him differently?

He is not 'behind other players' as much as one might expect a 6'7" kid to be behind. He is actually on pace with most.

Interesting that you compare him to Ferland and call him a face puncher.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

The NHL is a tough league to crack. Just ask Max Reinhart, Sven Baertschi, Corban Knight etc.

Well, they would all probably be in the NHL if we didn't have depth in center and left wing. Hunter Smith has a better chance of making it because of how shallow our RW depth is.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

He's 18. He's one month older than Draisaitl.

Yes, he went undrafted the prior year but as you said, it was a year of injuries. Also, he was a 17 year old who shot up to 6'7". Finally, he was a few days from not being draft eligible anyway, and simply being a 2014 draft prospect. Had he been born 5 days later and thus not 'gone undrafted', would you look at him differently?

He is not 'behind other players' as much as one might expect a 6'7" kid to be behind. He is actually on pace with most.

Interesting that you compare him to Ferland and call him a face puncher.

Well Ferland punches faces once in a while too, it doesn't mean that I don't like him or devalue him because of it. Smith was singularly a face puncher before this last season. I didn't overstate anything.

And if we are comparing him to Draisaitl's age, then he's likely at least a year behind him in terms of development because he had nearly half a season taken from him last year because of torn tendons in his hand/wrist. Similar to Sieloff, it hampers your development if you can't play, and you end up behind similar aged players.

Let's be honest, he went undrafted because he had a horrible year marred by injuries. People would've taken a flyer on him with his size in a later round had he done anything worth noting in his draft year. Technically he's more comparable to players in this draft in terms of age and experience, but that still doesn't make him a great prospect at the moment.

He's still raw, but has the potential to be an effective 3rd line winger with some skill and lots of size. Let's not pretend he's more than that. I'm not really trying to convince you because it seems you like him a lot. Just stating my case.

[Yrebmi]

We have this run off battle where predictably Smith will win, and McD will take 19th by default.
I would speculate however, that should Smith have been awarded the win in Rd 18 and McD just another choice in Rd 19, that McD might not be a lock to get 19th.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Well, they would all probably be in the NHL if we didn't have depth in center and left wing. Hunter Smith has a better chance of making it because of how shallow our RW depth is.

LOL@depth at center. We had an 18 year old rookie, a 24 year old 2nd/3rd liner, a veteran 3rd liner, and a rookie 4th liner who had struggled to make the NHL until now. When your competition is Joe Colborne, Matt Stajan, and an 18 year old Monahan (who was very good, don't get me wrong), if you can't crack that list you're not really good enough to be in the NHL yet.

Left wing was definitely pretty crowded last year, but it's not much of an excuse this year. Also helps if someone can play their off-wing.

[ForeverFlameFan]

You don't think we have depth in center? Backlund, Stajan, Monahan, Byron (C/LW), Bouma (C/LW), followed by Bennett, Jankowski, Knight, Granlund, and Arnold. And I bet I am missing a couple. I find it funny you think we have no center depth.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Well Ferland punches faces once in a while too, it doesn't mean that I don't like him or devalue him because of it. Smith was singularly a face puncher before this last season. I didn't overstate anything.

And if we are comparing him to Draisaitl's age, then he's likely at least a year behind him in terms of development because he had nearly half a season taken from him last year because of torn tendons in his hand/wrist. Similar to Sieloff, it hampers your development if you can't play, and you end up behind similar aged players.

Let's be honest, he went undrafted because he had a horrible year marred by injuries. People would've taken a flyer on him with his size in a later round had he done anything worth noting in his draft year. Technically he's more comparable to players in this draft in terms of age and experience, but that still doesn't make him a great prospect at the moment.

He's still raw, but has the potential to be an effective 3rd line winger with some skill and lots of size. Let's not pretend he's more than that. I'm not really trying to convince you because it seems you like him a lot. Just stating my case.

And that's why Draisaitl went 3rd overall.

Yes, he was behind because of a year of injuries. Period. That does not mean that he is on a slower trajectory, which is what you are implying with the longer term project comments.

And yes, I do like him. I am not hung up on the big=less talented notion. Smith's ceiling is not a 3rd liner with some skill and size. He definitely has the potential to be much more than that.

But of course, this season will show us a lot - will he continue to show meteoric progression like Poirier? Or was his solid playoff performance just that - a good run, and not progression?

Time will tell.

[cannon7]

I think most scouts would have MacDonald ahead of Smith right now.

[cannon7]

My concern about Smith is that he's just a bigger J.D. Watt.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by cannon7

My concern about Smith is that he's just a bigger J.D. Watt.

based on what?

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

We have this run off battle where predictably Smith will win, and McD will take 19th by default.
I would speculate however, that should Smith have been awarded the win in Rd 18 and McD just another choice in Rd 19, that McD might not be a lock to get 19th.

This could be held up in the courts for years!

[Vulcan]

I don't get this discounting McDonald because he's a goalie. Goalie's have already been discounted and that's why you don't see them picked in the first round anymore. In past years McDonald would probably have been a first round pick.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

You don't think we have depth in center? Backlund, Stajan, Monahan, Byron (C/LW), Bouma (C/LW), followed by Bennett, Jankowski, Knight, Granlund, and Arnold. And I bet I am missing a couple. I find it funny you think we have no center depth.

At the NHL level? No, I don't think we have very good depth. I think we have a bunch of guys who can play bottom 2 line minutes effectively, and occasionally can play above that when called upon.

You are mistaking organizational prospect depth for professional depth. If Reinhart and company were that good they would have cracked a pretty awful team last year. Monahan forced his way onto the team as an 18 year old. IMO, it was Reinhart's and Knight's job to lose and they didn't claim it.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And that's why Draisaitl went 3rd overall.

Yes, he was behind because of a year of injuries. Period. That does not mean that he is on a slower trajectory, which is what you are implying with the longer term project comments.

And yes, I do like him. I am not hung up on the big=less talented notion. Smith's ceiling is not a 3rd liner with some skill and size. He definitely has the potential to be much more than that.

But of course, this season will show us a lot - will he continue to show meteoric progression like Poirier? Or was his solid playoff performance just that - a good run, and not progression?

Time will tell.

Like I said, I could be wrong about him, but that's how I view him. For me, the sample size is just too small to be considered significant. Much like the way I view Ferland, I can see the potential, but it needs to be reproducible over a longer period of time before I am convinced. It's the cynic in me that prefers to wait and see, or the scientific mind in me reproducible results over a long data period, or maybe I'm just tired of being burnt by guys like Blake Comeau.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

based on what?

Trajectory. JD Watt was a junior enforcer turned power forward. He didn't have NHL skill, he just overpowered junior players. When he went pro, his goal scoring disappeared. I'm not saying Smith is another Watt, I just worry that his sudden rise in offense is solely due to his sudden rise in physical stature.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Trajectory. JD Watt was a junior enforcer turned power forward. He didn't have NHL skill, he just overpowered junior players. When he went pro, his goal scoring disappeared. I'm not saying Smith is another Watt, I just worry that his sudden rise in offense is solely due to his sudden rise in physical stature.

JD Watt had under .5 PPG as a 20 year-old over-ager.

If Smith puts up similar numbers a couple years from now, then I'd agree.

Smith is not an enforcer. So many fans seem to think big=goon. He can play. He rose from 140th in January, to 39th in May on the final rankings for Central Scouting's North American skaters.

He had a strong 2nd half and then was basically 1 PPG in the playoffs.

If he doesn't progress at all from here, then he will be on the JD Watt train.

But based on current progression, that seems extremely unlikely.