Flames vs Oilers vs Canucks prospects Battle Royale

[Enoch Root]

I would try to line up positions and similar players more (hard to compare Wotherspoon to Vey for instance). So I listed forwards, trying to compare Cs to Cs as much as possible, size to size, etc.
Forwards:

Bennett - Draisaitl - Horvat
Gaudreau - ????? - Shinkaruk
Poirier - Khaira - Virtanen
Baertschi - Yakimov - Jensen
Klimchuk - Chase - McCann
Granlund - ?????? - Vey
Arnold - Arcabello - Gaunce

leaving: Reinhart, Jankowski, Smith, Knight and Ferland as guys of similar quality that the other teams just don't have an answer for

The Flame is either better or equal in every comparison

Defense comparisons:

??? - Nurse - ???
Wotherspoon - Marincin - Corrado
Sieloff - Klefbom - ?????

Goalies:

Ortio - Bunz - Markstrom
Gillies - Brossoit - ?????
McDonald - Nagelvoort - Demko

Again, the only place where the Flames are behind is at D

[bubbsy]

ROUND 1:
1. Draisaitl
2. Gaudreau
3. Horvat

ROUND 2:
1. Bennett
2. Nurse
3. Virtanen

ROUND 3:
1. Marincin
2. Shinkaruk
3. Baertschi

ROUND 4:
1. Klefbom
2. Poirier
3. Jensen

ROUND 5:
1. Gaunce
2. Granlund
3. Yakimov

ROUND 6:
1. McCann
2. Klimchuk
3. Kharia

ROUND 7:
1. Corrado
2. Reinhart
3. Simpson

ROUND 8:
1. Vey
2. Wotherspoon
3. Chase

ROUND 9:
1. Demko
2. Moroz
3. Gillies

ROUND 10:
1. Jankowski
2. Hutton
3. Ewanyk


using a weighted avg (3 points for 1st, 2 points for 2nd, 1 point for 3rd) the above works out to:

VAN: 22
CGY: 20
EDM: 18

however, this is a very flawed way of comparing prospect bases.

I think the best way would be to do this would be to grade every player the way HF does (Prospect talent score, probability of success score) for each teams' top 10-15 prospects and tally up the two scores and compare.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Based on what?

Size/age/where they were drafted. If Gaudreau had better odds of being a full time NHLer, he would have been drafted a lot higher.

Gaudreau has made huge strides since being drafted, but the odds are still against him.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Size/age/where they were drafted. If Gaudreau had better odds of being a full time NHLer, he would have been drafted a lot higher.

Gaudreau has made huge strides since being drafted, but the odds are still against him.

The odds are against him????? Really!?

His draft was 3 years ago. You would think by what Johnny has proven the past 3 years that people would get over the size issue by now. Did you watch the World Championships?

He's guaranteed to be an every day NHLer.

[saXon]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

ROUND 1:

ROUND 3:
1. Marincin
2. Shinkaruk
3. Baertschi

I don't agree. Shinkaruk hasn't done anything to prove he's a better prospect than Marincin, let alone Baertschi, who's already had over 50 career NHL games at a near .5 ppg pace.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Fire

The odds are against him????? Really!?

His draft was 3 years ago. You would think by what Johnny has proven the past 3 years that people would get over the size issue by now. Did you watch the World Championships?

He's guaranteed to be an every day NHLer.

Oh right, after one game he's guaranteed. Sorry for repeating exactly what Burke said about him.

[troutman]

Impossible to see the future is.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by saXon

I don't agree. Shinkaruk hasn't done anything to prove he's a better prospect than Marincin, let alone Baertschi, who's already had over 50 career NHL games at a near .5 ppg pace.

i think you may have mis-read. i have shinkaruk below marincin. I'd consider shinkaruk and baertchi at about the same level right now, but baertchi's struggles in continuing his development in the pro leagues (nhl/ahl) is what dropped him.

[Street Pharmacist]

I actually had the flames winning 7 of 10 buy decided to go homer or go home.

It kept coming back to how you could argue for the flames to win each round, but the same couldn't be said for every Oiler/Canuck prospect. Having said that, there certainly was a heavy dose of homerism in there.

I don't see many impartial observers picking Horvat over Gaudreau at this point. Last year maybe, but not after a Hobey Baker, several NCAA scoring records and what he showed against men at the WHC

Baertschi had one poor season, this last one. He's still decent prospect and had scored at a 0.5 PPG. Marincin has so far shown he can be a bottom pairing defender maybe more. You could easily go Marincin, but it's no landslide.

Klefbom over Poirier? Ok, maybe, but I don't see it. Impartial observer could make that case. Klefbom has shown me, but Poirier looks to be a great gritty wonder and Klefbom has taken some steps backwards IMO.

Gaunce over Granlund? Granlund scored over a PPG in his first year in the AHL. Gaunce hasn't improved in the two seasons since his draft. Again, maybe you make that case, but I disagree.
I can see mccann over Klimchuk if you like newer prospects, but they are essentially the same type of player but Klimchuk appears to have more offensive upside. Potatoes potahohs.
Corrado over Reinhart? Maybe. He's certainly proved more, but you could make a case for the former Kootenay captain who led his AHL team in scoring in his second year in the AHL. I originally had this in corrado' favour

Vey could easily won his round too.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Oh right, after one game he's guaranteed. Sorry for repeating exactly what Burke said about him.

Burke is just trying to lower expectations so we don't get another Sven situation if it takes Gaudreau time to adjust to the NHL. You really believe Gaudreau has less than 50% chance of being a full-time NHLer?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

i think you may have mis-read. i have shinkaruk below marincin. I'd consider shinkaruk and baertchi at about the same level right now, but baertchi's struggles in continuing his development in the pro leagues (nhl/ahl) is what dropped him.

As opposed to Shinkaruk's 5 goal season in the dub? With a reduced PPG stat?

[Hatter]

ROUND 1:
1. Draisaitl
2. Gaudreau
3. Horvat

ROUND 2:
1. Bennett
2. Nurse
3. Virtanen

ROUND 3:
1. Marincin
2. Baertschi
3. Shinkaruk

ROUND 4:
1. Klefbom
2. Poirier
3. Jensen

ROUND 5:
1. Granlund
2. Gaunce
3. Yakimov

ROUND 6:
1. Klimchuk
2. Kharia
3. McCann

ROUND 7:
1. Corrado
2. Reinhart
3. Simpson

ROUND 8:
1. Vey
2. Wotherspoon
3. Chase

ROUND 9:
1. Gillies
2. Demko
3. Moroz

ROUND 10:
1. Jankowski
2. Hutton
3. Ewanyk

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

i think you may have mis-read. i have shinkaruk below marincin. I'd consider shinkaruk and baertchi at about the same level right now, but baertchi's struggles in continuing his development in the pro leagues (nhl/ahl) is what dropped him.

What about Shinkaruk's struggles in the amateur league last year? Two straight seasons with declining point totals?

This forum is so down on Baertschi it's ridiculous.

Marincin was gifted ice time on the Oilers despite him making many mistakes. He had a longer leash than Baertschi.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Fire

Burke is just trying to lower expectations so we don't get another Sven situation if it takes Gaudreau time to adjust to the NHL. You really believe Gaudreau has less than 50% chance of being a full-time NHLer?

Do you really believe that an 18 y.o. 6'2" 215lb 3rd overall pick has less odds of being an NHL impact player over a 20 y.o. 5'8" 150 pound player?

That's the debate here.


.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Do you really believe that an 18 y.o. 6'2" 215lb 3rd overall pick has less odds of being an NHL regular over a 20 y.o. 5'8" 150 pound player?

That's the debate here.

If that's all you're going to look at then the base of your argument is flawed.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Do you really believe that an 18 y.o. 6'2" 215lb 3rd overall pick has less odds of being an NHL regular over a 20 y.o. 5'8" 150 pound player?

That's the debate here.

I don't think it is because both are very likely to be NHL regulars.

I think this debate is about who will have the more impactful career

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I don't think it is because both are very likely to be NHL regulars.

I think this debate is about who will have the more impactful career

That's what I meant, just wrote it wrong. Edited my post.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Do you really believe that an 18 y.o. 6'2" 215lb 3rd overall pick has less odds of being an NHL impact player over a 20 y.o. 5'8" 150 pound player?

That's the debate here.


.

You said the odds are against Gaudreau. I took that to mean you thought he had less that a 50/50 chance on becoming a full time NHLer.

If you are just comparing Draisaitl and Gaudreau than I would say the odds of either one becoming an impact player are basically the same. I would give the edge to Gaudreau because he has proven more than Draisaitl at this point.

Not sure why you are so fixated about where a player was drafted 3 years ago. If you had this conversation at the time Gaudreau was drafted then you would have a point.

[Read Only]

Originally Posted by Fire

You really believe Gaudreau has less than 50% chance of being a full-time NHLer?

I think he has a 50/50 chance of becoming a full time NHLer on a good team.

He is top 6 or bust so if he struggles at the NHL level he will quickly be dropped from good teams that have depth to replace him in the top 6.

I think he is in the perfect spot here as he will almost assuredly get roughly 80-160 games in the next two years at the NHL level with very little competition as a top 6 scorer so we should get a good idea of what he is capable of.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Fire

You said the odds are against Gaudreau. I took that to mean you thought he had less that a 50/50 chance on becoming a full time NHLer.

If you are just comparing Draisaitl and Gaudreau than I would say the odds of either one becoming an impact player are basically the same. I would give the edge to Gaudreau because he has proven more than Draisaitl at this point.

Not sure why you are so fixated about where a player was drafted 3 years ago. If you had this conversation at the time Gaudreau was drafted then you would have a point.

Sorry, I can see how you thought that by my posts, in hindsight. I was just meaning to the OP vs Draisaitl. I think it's Draisaitl because of his history and size.

If Gaudreau was drafted in the 3rd round and Draisaitl was drafted in the 2nd round my argument would be weak. Draisaitl was a top 5 draft pick and is 18 years old.

Like I said in my first post, I like Gaudreau, just trying to be realistic.