Summer 2014 Prospect Ranking Poll Rd3

[Caged Great]

Surprised that Klimchuk only has 5 votes.

[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by H2SO4(aq)

I find it very telling that the majority of posts in this thread are leaning towards Granlund or Poirier however the poll suggests a strong tilt towards Sven. To me, that says that the more educated and informed fans are leaning towards those two while the general masses just havent heard enough hype for either Marcus or Emile to surpass Sven for their votes..

Hahaha, I think you're looking a little too hard.

Sven has the highest ceiling, that is my primary criteria.

I'm loving the depth, especially with Monahan not being considered here and he's still just 19.

[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Surprised that Klimchuk only has 5 votes.

I'm surprised he has any...love him, but I fail to see how he could be rated over Poirier, Sven or Granlund...seems obvious to me.

[PlayfulGenius]

I'm curious whom people rye as having a higher ceiling... Bennett vs Monahan

[AC]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

I'm curious whom people rye as having a higher ceiling... Bennett vs Monahan

Bennett for sure.

I love Mono, but I think he ends up being a fantastic #2C whereas Bennett has #1C potential.

[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by AC

Bennett for sure.

I love Mono, but I think he ends up being a fantastic #2C whereas Bennett has #1C potential.

Stats agree with your assessment...I've never seen Bennett play, so I have no opinion myself.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Let's see... Granlund played 2 years in the WJC .... the 2nd year at the same age as RNH he had 5 goals an 7 assists in 6 games .... RNH coming off of solid NHL: rookie year had 15 pts in 6 games in that tourney.

Granlund was able to play 2 years after he was drafted because he is 7 months younger than Baertschi

So after that he comes over to the AHL and playing in a smaller ice surface totally without compliant or problem adapts and 46 pts in 52 games.

The older Baertschi, after 2 years in the CHL was only able to put up 26 pts in 32 games in his equivalents season.

The brief NHL success of Baertschi gave him such a big head that he felt slighted to play in the young guns tourney and did not take the opportunity to show case his dominance of the young players.

The biggest highlight from Baertschi last year was him providing advice to Monahan on how to handle the fame and high expectations.


Meanwhile Granlund just was doing what he needed to be prepared for the NHL.


If the Flames are going to go with 3 small forwards: Hudler , Gaudreau and either Granlund or Baertschi I would want the mentally tougher Granlund given the first chance. He has progressed while Baertschi seems to have fallen back .... possibly due to the high expectations.


Marcus has really been keeping up with his more famous (higher drafted) older brother..Mikael.

2 years ago Mikael had 30 pts in 34 games in his first look at the smaller AHL ice surface.... eerily similar to Markus's 51 pts in 56 games... (including playoffs in both)

Last year Mikael had 41 pts in 63 NHL games.

Good summary of the two.

I definitely have more confidence in Granlund over Baertschi. Hate to say that expectations resulting from early hype may have contributed to Sven's falling off this past year, but even something as seemingly small as the Young Stars tourney (and Development camp before that) showed how he got ahead of himself mentally, and approached those as if he were too good for them... instead of going in and SHOWING he was on another level. If a player wants to belong in the NHL, they have to endure the rigors of the stepping stones to get there, and show some humility in doing so, while proving yourself again and again, if that's what it takes. I think Sven may have thought he was beyond that, because of his abilities which once stood out in our prospect pool. But no player is, and that's in part I think a maturity thing. And hopefully he figures it out soon.

Meanwhile Granlund is going through the motions of the north american transition, and passing with flying colours in doing so. Seems set on doing what it takes to belong at the next level, whether his brother plays a part in that or not, but I can imagine it's got to be good motivation to get there.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Well Sven has been a top prospect in the organization for several years now...

I think this is a big part of the problem. While Baertschi is among the Flames longest tenured prospects, neither he nor his professional hockey career are actually that old. He will be 22 this year. Last season he was still eligible to win the Calder Trophy. This is likely as clear a scenario as where the "shiny new toy" syndrome applies, especially since Baertschi had an off year last year. He's still really young with tonnes of potential; it just seems like he has already been around forever.

[PlayfulGenius]

I'm just now realizing Granlund is younger than Sven... I thought he was a year older

[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think this is a big part of the problem. While Baertschi is among the Flames longest tenured prospects, neither he nor his professional hockey career are actually that old. He will be 22 this year. Last season he was still eligible to win the Calder Trophy. This is likely as clear a scenario as where the "shiny new toy" syndrome applies, especially since Baertschi had an off year last year. He's still really young with tonnes of potential; it just seems like he has already been around forever.

We'll see how this year goes, obviously, but my guess would be not too many 22 year old AHLers go onto to have significant Top 3 F NHL careers...meaning, he's not likely to reach his ceiling unless he comes to camp ready to make the Flames.

I haven't done any analysis though...it just seems to me that current impact players were securely in the NHL by 22 years of age.

[Tinordi]

Baertschi's ceiling is the highest among remaining prospects and there's little to indicate that anyone else is more a of a "sure thing" to override that. It's not crazy to vote for Sven under that framework.

Poirier is a great prospect but his ceiling isn't as high. Likewise Granlund. Considering that Sven has played actual NHL games and showed that he's close to being a full time NHL player should disabuse anyone of the notion that the other guys are better prospects at this point.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think this is a big part of the problem. While Baertschi is among the Flames longest tenured prospects, neither he nor his professional hockey career are actually that old. He will be 22 this year. Last season he was still eligible to win the Calder Trophy. This is likely as clear a scenario as where the "shiny new toy" syndrome applies, especially since Baertschi had an off year last year. He's still really young with tonnes of potential; it just seems like he has already been around forever.

The problem with Baertschi is he has not taken the next step at either level of hockey he's played in since junior. He has not shown an ability to control play let alone be a dominant player. He is highly skilled but he doesn't appear to want to take the physical risks it takes to be high end player in the North American professional ranks.

The other problem with Baertschi is he is in the last year of his entry level contract. He is playing for his professional life this season. Flames management has said they expect players to step up and show they are NHL players in the first two or three years of professional service. Baertshi is coming into year three. The Flames may have a very hard decision to make on him come the end of this season. They really need him to step up and prove he is a top six player in the NHL or they may be forced to move him for a similar aged player with a lower ceiling but less risk in a position we need.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by nik-

It's funny, because I see it as shiny new toy syndrome.

That's just the nature of evaluating prospects. It's not just amongst Flames fans where Baertschi has dropped as even THN used to have him top 15 in their future watch issue dropped him to the mid 30's below Gaudreau and ahead of Poirier in their 2014 Top 50. He achieved great things in the WHL but he hasn't been amongst the best forwards on the Heat and in the NHL he has produced at a fair pace but his all around game isn't good enough to keep a spot on the roster so the honeymoon for him is over. So far guys like Gaudreau, Granlund, and Poirier haven't got to that point in their careers where they have stalled in their development so there's more hope that they will be able to make the jump more seamlessly to the NHL.

You only have to look at Ryan Johansen to see that sometimes it takes a prospect time to put it all together as a professional so it's not all bad for Baertschi. However given the Flames status as a rebuilding team that is stocking the cupboards the longer it takes him the more the chances of him being surpassed by other prospects in the system.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

We'll see how this year goes, obviously, but my guess would be not too many 22 year old AHLers go onto to have significant Top 3 F NHL careers...meaning, he's not likely to reach his ceiling unless he comes to camp ready to make the Flames.

I haven't done any analysis though...it just seems to me that current impact players were securely in the NHL by 22 years of age.

I'm kind of curious about the actual statistics in this regard, but it does seem that nowadays, most impact top 6 players are NHLers by 22 (at least the ones that go the CHL/AHL route). Obviously there are still late bloomers that prove to be exceptions, but Baertschi isn't really a late bloomer in the traditional sense.

I just really hope that he makes the team this year. It would go a long ways to putting my mind at ease.

[flambers]

At this point, I am not sure Baertschi is even in the top 5 in terms of top Flames prospects.

I would think a Flames management generated list would have him lower as well.....

Players like Gillies, Poirier and Klimchuk would be higher (top 2 are obvious).

[pgsieve]

Just curious why Acolatse was left out of the original list. I know I'm getting ahead of myself but he is my number 7-8 on this list.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by flambers

At this point, I am not sure Baertschi is even in the top 5 in terms of top Flames prospects.

I would think a Flames management generated list would have him lower as well.....

Players like Gillies, Poirier and Klimchuk would be higher (top 2 are obvious).

I would actually be very surprised if the team ranks prospects against one another at all. The Flames really only care about how each player is tracking in his own development, and I am quite certain do not expend much time and energy at all determining who is the "best" or "worst" in the bunch. They want them all to be successful and impactful. They want them all to make the team. If they don't make the team, the Flames then decide whether it is worth more time and resources to continue their development, or they cut them loose. I think the argument with regards to Baertschi concerns where the team and fans perceive that he is in terms of this last point: is it worth keeping him on, or are they better off cutting him loose?

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by flambers

At this point, I am not sure Baertschi is even in the top 5 in terms of top Flames prospects.

I would think a Flames management generated list would have him lower as well.....

Players like Gillies, Poirier and Klimchuk would be higher (top 2 are obvious).

Why would we demote Sven because he had a bad season but then promote Gillies for having an arguably worse season as a prospect?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by New Era

The problem with Baertschi is he has not taken the next step at either level of hockey he's played in since junior. He has not shown an ability to control play let alone be a dominant player. He is highly skilled but he doesn't appear to want to take the physical risks it takes to be high end player in the North American professional ranks.

I wonder if the team might have a longer view of this problem in light of some of his problems with injuries in the past two years, which quite likely have had a palpable psychological impact on his game.

Originally Posted by New Era

The other problem with Baertschi is he is in the last year of his entry level contract...

I suspect that the team exercises some flexibility in their employment of this rule to each player individually. We will see, but based on what we have heard compared to what we have seen, the team seems to take a much more focused individual approach to each player's development. For all we know, circumstances and history have affected the hard and fast employment of this rule for a player like Baertschi.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by pgsieve

Just curious why Acolatse was left out of the original list. I know I'm getting ahead of myself but he is my number 7-8 on this list.

I'd guess the easiest answer is probably the correct one in this case, a simple oversight.

With everyone focusing on the new draft picks, it's easy to overlook a couple of depth signings of players who will likely spend the season in the AHL.


Acolatse and Thiessen should probably both be added to the list since they are under NHL contracts.