[Signing] Flames re-sign Paul Byron (1 yr)

[oldschoolcalgary]

thank you for the responses. All reasonable lines of thinking.

I can't say I am overly pleased or disappointed with the signing; just another potentially useful cog in the machine that needs cogs i suppose...

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

Byron, a serviceable utility player, on a near-league-minimum contract is a much greater asset than if he had been awarded a contract of, say, $850,000-1,000,000. It's not that they were 'scared' of arbitration. They're just being savvy & getting the player at the best value they can.

Sure, assuming one way contracts, Byron at 600,000 is a better asset than Byron at 850,000. I don't disagree. But Byron at 600,000 playing for the Capitals is worth nothing to the Flames and by making him a UFA they made that a completely plausible option. Which at the very least means they weren't afraid to lose him. Which you seem to agree with.

As for arbitration. People can bring up the MacArthurs but Byron's camp wouldn't be clear of risk here. They would have to argue how the lightest (and yes, that's admissible despite some claims in here) "NHL player" with less than a full season played total, who failed to make one of the worst rosters in the league to the start the season and who's career high in games played was just over half the season with 47 should be awarded with a one-way contract. And for every "comparable" player making over a million dollars, like Zuccarello, there's Bonino, Sexton and Brunnstrom who signed for 700,000 or less. Speaking of which, all 4 of those fringe NHL players at the time filed for arbitration and all avoided them. Very good chance that the Flames and Byron would have done the same. I think the arbitration risk is being overblown to try and justify why he wasn't signed right away. If the Flames really want to avoid arbitration, why didn't they do something similar for Colborne? If the Flames and Byron were going to sign anyways, why didn't they sign before free agent frenzy?

So by letting him reach UFA they were willing to lose him, that's not speculation it's fact, and by signing him after free agency they had already determined (more or less) which free agents they would be able to sign. Occam's razor would suggest that they were able to reassess their team and decided there was a spot for Byron but he wasn't their first and only option. Which there isn't anything wrong with. Byron still gets his chance and the Flames get a player with something to prove who at worst acts as a stopgap utility forward until some prospects show up.

[Enoch Root]

Oling:

If you were Byron's agent, would you sign for less than the qualifying offer, before the deadline?

It makes no sense.

The Flames wanted to get the number lower and avoid arbitration. The price for that was temporary UFA exposure.

Pretty straightforward.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Oling:

If you were Byron's agent, would you sign for less than the qualifying offer, before the deadline?

It makes no sense.

If it was a one-way contract it would definitely be something that would have to be looked at. Again, one-way is far from a guarantee for Byron. Otherwise his agent evidently screwed up by signing a one-way league minimum here.

If you were the Flame's management and had all intention of keeping Byron, would you risk him to UFA over a 100,000?

It makes even less sense.

[Enoch Root]

Could have been quite a bit more than $100k

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Could have been quite a bit more than $100k

Could have been less to. If arbitration has been awarding all these crazy contracts it shouldn't be an issue coming up with a couple players who were awarded with 1 million dollar contracts before playing 100 games and getting 50 points, right? Because I'm drawing more or less a blank. Yet I can name countless players who have yet to establish themselves as full-time NHLers who accepted contracts in the 500,000-800,000 range.

Like I've repeated, 81 games, 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points over 4 NHL seasons isn't exactly a stat line that makes arbitration scary, at least not for the club. The people arguing that arbitration contract could have been crazy should provide some real life examples to comparable players for Byron and not players who had 400 games played heading into the proceeding.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Could have been less to. If arbitration has been awarding all these crazy contracts it shouldn't be an issue coming up with a couple players who were awarded with 1 million dollar contracts before playing 100 games and getting 50 points, right? Because I'm drawing more or less a blank. Yet I can name countless players who have yet to establish themselves as full-time NHLers who accepted contracts in the 500,000-800,000 range.

Like I've repeated, 81 games, 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points over 4 NHL seasons isn't exactly a stat line that makes arbitration scary, at least not for the club. The people arguing that arbitration contract could have been crazy should provide some real life examples to comparable players for Byron and not players who had 400 games played heading into the proceeding.

Byron seems to be in a fairly unique position, with few comparables that I can find. It is definitely a mission for sureLoss or other info-miners to find some similar arb cases to Paul Byron because I can't find one.

What makes the arbitration case potentially difficult for the Flames is his most recent career-best season:

47GP 7G 14A 21PTS +6

His previous stints in the NHL were very limited (31 games over 3 seasons) and this season was his first decent shake at the stick. Pro-rated over 82 games Byron's numbers equate to 12G, 24A & 36PTS, which are pretty decent numbers for a player who just shed his 'rookie' status in the NHL. A 25-year-old utility player at .45PPG? Responsible defensively as well. It could be argued by his agent that this was a break-out season and a sign of things to come. Of course the Flames would argue with many of the points you bring up and it could get ugly.

To reference something you brought up, in Clarke MacArthur's famous arbitration case against the Atlanta Thrashers he was awarded a contract worth $2.4 million, a significant raise over his previous salary of $1.4 million. In the year before that arbitration case he scored at a career-best .42PPG pace. Though he had played 210 NHL games in 3 seasons at that point that year was his best to date. The Thrashers walked away from that contract and MacArthur signed with the Leafs at a more reasonable rate.

With that in mind, I'd say there was the potential in, Byron's case, that the arbitrator could have nearly doubled his salary. I'd say $1,000,000 AAV for 1 or 2 years wouldn't have been out of the realms of possibility, worst case scenario. Imagine if the Flames then walked away? The lowest salary he could have received in arbitration would be 85% of last years' salary which equates to $546,975 AAV but even with Byron's career stats in consideration he wouldn't have received a ruling that low.

By going this route, the Flames avoided:

• Offering Byron a qualifying offer ($707,850 which he surely would have accepted)
• A potentially ugly arbitration case where the player is flat-out confronted with all his weaknesses and why he is not valuable to the team
• An arbitration ruling which could have inflated his salary to the point where he is not a financially attractive asset

The Flames risked losing Byron to UFA, but saved at the very least $107,850 of his salary. I believe management would have known that there wouldn't be much interest in Byron league-wide, or they may have known that Byron wouldn't have been offered the same salary on a one-way contract by anyone else. And what would be the point of going to another team offering less than what the Flames would offer?

He signed so quickly that I believe the team had either told Byron what their plan for him was, or he jumped at the opportunity to stay in an organisation he's familiar with and knows where he stands. The player knows he's not in the longterm plans, but signs a short contract to try & showcase himself to the rest of the league or prove to Flames brass that he deserves a longer look while the prospects are developing in the minors. If he has another good season but the Gaudreaus and Baertschis still supplant him in the roster then he and his very reasonable salary could be used as a make-weight in any potential deals with cap-tight teams in need of cheap bodies on the roster.

It all makes perfect sense to me.

If the Flames really want to avoid arbitration, why didn't they do something similar for Colborne? If the Flames and Byron were going to sign anyways, why didn't they sign before free agent frenzy?

Regarding Colborne: a 6'5" former 1st rounder? He would inevitably be a more coveted asset league-wide than Byron and would have garnered more interest on the UFA marker. No doubt about it. Like it or not, Colborne has the size our management covets and he plays C/RW, which are few and far between. If we had not qualified Joe Colborne we would have unequivocally lost him as a UFA.

*Interesting thought: stats-wise, Colborne might be the arbitration comparable to Byron that we're looking for: 96GP 11G 23A 34PTS -15 over 3 seasons. If he's awarded anywhere near $1,000,000 AAV then I think the Flames will feel justified in doing what they did with Byron. We'll find out soon enough.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

But it's a one way. He is going to make 600k regardless. Since he will probably spend some time in the minors, he will make more money this year even though it is lower.

This. He's not a kid anymore, he has a family of his own and I would guess the security of a one way contract of any amount is a big deal for him. Hopefully for his sake he goes on to bigger and better paydays but locking in a bit of cash now seems a smart move

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

To reference something you brought up, in Clarke MacArthur's famous arbitration case against the Atlanta Thrashers he was awarded a contract worth $2.4 million, a significant raise over his previous salary of $1.4 million. In the year before that arbitration case he scored at a career-best .42PPG pace. Though he had played 210 NHL games in 3 seasons at that point that year was his best to date. The Thrashers walked away from that contract and MacArthur signed with the Leafs at a more reasonable rate.

MacArthur's arbitration case was a charade. The Thrashers made no attempt to argue, they had already agreed it was time to move on so they went in and told the arbitrator any contract was fine.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...article587253/

"We said, you know what, maybe it wouldn't be a bad thing if he gets this silly award," Thrashers general manager Rick Dudley said. "We kind of encouraged it."

By going this route, the Flames avoided:
Offering Byron a qualifying offer ($707,850 which he surely would have accepted)

No reason the qualifying offer would have been one-way. 600K two-way, his eventual contract, would have very likely been a more attractive offer.

A potentially ugly arbitration case where the player is flat-out confronted with all his weaknesses and why he is not valuable to the team

I agree with this. But letting him become a UFA is also telling him he isn't that valuable so it's close to a moot point.

An arbitration ruling which could have inflated his salary to the point where he is not a financially attractive asset

If this was the case why did Brunnstrom, Bonnino and all these other fringe-NHL players eventually sign for their 700,000K contracts? Agents just being lazy? It's not a selling point that Paul Byron's point-per-game was decent this year, the Flames management would just point out his games played was low because he didn't make the team and was injured. I understand avoiding arbitration with established players like Russell and his 400 games, but there hasn't been a case of a player who played half the season grabbing an absurd contract. I don't disagree Byron could have maybe got a couple bucks more, but we're talking peanuts. Why risk losing him completely over peanuts?

He signed so quickly that I believe the team had either told Byron what their plan for him was, or he jumped at the opportunity to stay in an organisation he's familiar with and knows where he stands.

What plan? Explain the plan to me. If it was to sign him why didn't they, you know, sign him before this?

Regarding Colborne: a 6'5" former 1st rounder? He would inevitably be a more coveted asset league-wide than Byron and would have garnered more interest on the UFA marker. No doubt about it. Like it or not, Colborne has the size our management covets and he plays C/RW, which are few and far between.

Well that's what Colborne's agent will be saying at the hearing too. He also did play the full-season so he's got a higher bargaining position than Byron. Not quite sure even they are comparable.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

What plan? Explain the plan to me. If it was to sign him why didn't they, you know, sign him before this?

You are starting to clog this thread up with questions that have already been answered several times (even in the very post you are replying to).

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

...

No reason the qualifying offer would have been one-way. 600K two-way, his eventual contract, would have very likely been a more attractive offer.

...

I don't disagree Byron could have maybe got a couple bucks more, but we're talking peanuts. Why risk losing him completely over peanuts?

They had to offer him a raise of 110% if they qualified him.

In the end they did not and they re-signed him for a discount, but with the concession of a 1-way contract. (You did clock that, right? He has a ONE-WAY CONTRACT now). Seems like good business to me, even if saving $107,850 is just 'peanuts' to you.

Why take the risk of losing him on UFA? I've covered that at length in my many responses to you. There was little to no risk of losing him and it was a risk they were willing to take.

I'm not sure what part of the picture you're not seeing here. It's all fairly black-and-white. Are you just trying to imply that the Flames had another UFA target which they missed out on which made Byron come back into the fold? I'm sure that's entirely feasible. Anyway, thanks for the brain cramp Oling. Have a nice day.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

You are starting to clog this thread up with questions that have already been answered several times (even in the very post you are replying to).

So the plan was to sign him all along? Yet, they didn't sign him a couple weeks ago?

And in his reply he avoided the two-way contract altogether. That's something Byron's camp would have to fight for. A reason why these fringe players have historically avoided arbitration and signed for small contracts. I've provided examples, I have yet to see someone link to a fringe NHL-player getting over a million dollar award in arbitration. If they exist they are a rarity, not the norm.

It's a discussion about Byron, only so much can be discussed. But they made him a UFA, did not state that he was part of their plan going forward and only signed him after free agency. To me that means he was plan B, not sure why people think a fringe NHL player would be plan A going into free agency and taking offense that the player, many of which seem to be stating now is not part of the future, was not on the top of the list for the Flames.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

They had to offer him a raise of 110% if they qualified him.

Yes. But the contract did not need to be one-way.

[Coach]

Byron is on the Flames for a reasonable contract.

What's the problem in here?

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

So the plan was to sign him all along? Yet, they didn't sign him a couple weeks ago?

And in his reply he avoided the two-way contract altogether. That's something Byron's camp would have to fight for. A reason why these fringe players have historically avoided arbitration and signed for small contracts. I've provided examples, I have yet to see someone link to a fringe NHL-player getting over a million dollar award in arbitration. If they exist they are a rarity, not the norm.

It's a discussion about Byron, only so much can be discussed. But they made him a UFA, did not state that he was part of their plan going forward and only signed him after free agency. To me that means he was plan B, not sure why people think a fringe NHL player would be plan A going into free agency and taking offense that the player, many of which seem to be stating now is not part of the future, was not on the top of the list for the Flames.

Flames were quick to release that they were still interested in Byron.

They were not interested in possibly going to arbitration, and for whatever reason, wanted his contract below his QO, but were ok with giving him a one-way. They were obviously still ok with the 'risk' of losing him. Whether or not they had a conversation with him about his contract (entirely plausible) before he went to UFA and had a rough agreement in place, or that no other NHL team offered him a one-way - doesn't really matter.

I am not sure what you are trying to argue here. Byron would get the attention of a number of organizations at this point, but mostly for a 2-way contract. Byron also would have a much harder time making the rosters of most teams in the NHL, and the Flames are the most likely organization to give him NHL ice-time that he is looking for to start his career.

Hayes is wanting to sign elsewhere than the Hawks apparently because he has little chance to crack their NHL roster. This can mean a lot of money down the line that he misses on because he starts his career later (if at all).

Why did Byron's agent agree to perhaps (if there was any better offered) contract with the Flames than somewhere else? Because in the long run, Byron will get the best opportunity out of all 30 teams to play full-time in this organization - an organization where the coach knows him and seems to like him. That is a much more valuable contract and opportunity than one that pays him over 1 million 2-way in an organization he is likely to rarely see NHL ice time on.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

They were not interested in possibly going to arbitration

Any concrete evidence from the organization this was the case?

I agree Byron was still on the radar, that much is fact. I agree that the contract is good for both sides and they had very open discussions heading into free agency. I just haven't seen evidence to suggest this was entirely because of arbitration.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Any concrete evidence from the organization this was the case?

I agree Byron was still on the radar, that much is fact. I agree that the contract is good for both sides and they had very open discussions heading into free agency. I just haven't seen evidence to suggest this was entirely because of arbitration.

Didn't they say as much? Also, no team in the entire NHL wants to go to arbitration - either team or player elected ones. It is something that is 'necessary' at times, but not something that teams wish to do.

I am not sure what point you are trying to make here, however.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Any concrete evidence from the organization this was the case?

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=270

Treliving on the Fan 960 says the Flames still have interest in Byron.

Confirms that the Flames did not want to go to arbitration with Byron, because he had a strong arbitration case if he was qualified.

Flames have an offer on the table for Byron.

If sureLoss isn't a concrete source then I don't know what more we can possibly do to ease your concerns.

[EldrickOnIce]

Let's not kid ourselves... the Flames could have easily paid Byron 2.5 (or something crazy unlikely like that through arb) on a one year deal.
It seems obvious the Flames were pursuing other UFA options that didn't pan out, and Byron was the fall back.
Given that, it is definitely a good deal for both - there can't have been much/any other interest in Byron, and his 600k is guaranteed money and leaves more options open to him.

It turned out win/win - but this could never have been the plan initially.

[BigFlameDog]

Holy frikkin' crap you guys......