[Signing] Canucks sign Vrbata (2yrs, $5mil AAV, limited NTC)

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

lol

You're out of your cotton-picking mind on that one.

Anaheim finished 33 points ahead of Vancouver last year. And the Ducks have improved. If they can cut the deficit to 30, I'll be impressed.

Anaheim's shooting % last year as a team was 10.7% in 5 on 5 play

the next highest in the league was a full 2% lower

the year before the shot 9.2%, the year before they shot 8.6%

if their % next year drops towards average (and history shows there's a good chance it will) they lose between 30 and 40 goals

so ya, a bit lucky last year

I also didn't say they would catch Anaheim, I never said the Canucks were a great team, I just said there's no great team in the Pacific besides LA

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

Anaheim's shooting % last year as a team was 10.7% in 5 on 5 play

the next highest in the league was a full 2% lower

the year before the shot 9.2%, the year before they shot 8.6%

if their % next year drops towards average (and history shows there's a good chance it will) they lose between 30 and 40 goals

so ya, a bit lucky last year

I also didn't say they would catch Anaheim, I never said the Canucks were a great team, I just said there's no great team in the Pacific besides LA

You are clearly getting caught up in semantics.

There are good teams in the west and Pacific division, and bad ones.

Guess which one Anaheim is and what Vancouver is?

You can try and spin it any way you want. Vancouver will be a bottom feeder next year. Whether they hover around 5-10th worst in the league or drop between 0-5, it makes little difference. They're not good.

[Zach]

Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton all in for a rough season in the West.

[Burke Salad]

I say good on them, they are not throwing in the towel, taking the easy way out like Edmonton!

[GettinIggyWithIt]

Originally Posted by driveway

Do people really think Vancouver's gotten worse since last season? A train wreck of a coach - gone. Goaltending headache - gone. Unhappy second-line-centre - gone. Both Sedins had significant injuries last year which caused their production to decline.

I think Vancouver is going to have a significantly better year this year than last year. I think they're in the group in the west with Colorado (who will decline), Minnesota, Anaheim (who did have league-best luck last year), and Dallas.

I see LA, Chicago, St. Louis, and San Jose as locks for the playoffs with that second group: four of Anaheim, Colorado, Vancouver, Dallas, Minnesota likely making the rest, Nashville, Arizona, and possibly (though not likely) Edmonton playing the role of spoilers, and Calgary and Winnipeg bringing up the rear.

They haven't gotten worse necessarily but they haven't gotten much better and definitely not enough to be grouped with Anaheim, Dallas, Colorado and Minnesota. All those teams had good seasons and the worst of the bunch (Dallas) got much better this off-season. I think they are more likely grouped with Nashville and Arizona. How do you figure that Colorado will decline by adding Iginla, and improving their D? How exactly did you determine that Anaheim had the league best luck last year? Based on a stat about the team trending upwards consistently in shooting percentage over the last three years?

[A Shot Wide]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

lol

You're out of your cotton-picking mind on that one.

Anaheim finished 33 points ahead of Vancouver last year. And the Ducks have improved. If they can cut the deficit to 30, I'll be impressed.

Is this race related at all, or is it something harmless that I am misunderstanding?

[Resolute 14]

I agree that both Anaheim and Vancouver will trend back toward the median. However, the Ducks are still miles better than the Canucks.

The Pacific is also a steamy pile for the most part. LA is elite, Anaheim will be good-not-great, imo. Vancouver is probably going to struggle to score. Vrbata is a nice add, but really, the Canucks would need the kind of "luck" Anaheim got last year, plus a San Jose implosion to make the playoffs, because only three are coming from this Division. Odds are, Vancouver has built a 9th or 10th place club.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

Anaheim's shooting % last year as a team was 10.7% in 5 on 5 play

the next highest in the league was a full 2% lower

the year before the shot 9.2%, the year before they shot 8.6%

if their % next year drops towards average (and history shows there's a good chance it will) they lose between 30 and 40 goals

so ya, a bit lucky last year

I also didn't say they would catch Anaheim, I never said the Canucks were a great team, I just said there's no great team in the Pacific besides LA

I love when people quote regression stats.

Where to start?...

Anaheim is a good team. They weren't 'lucky'. There were reasons - valid reasons - why they led the league in goals scored last year. Will they lead the league again this year? Maybe not.

Will they score fewer goals? Maybe. Will their shooting percentage go down? Maybe. But maybe that will be because they take more shots (they were 8th in the league last year.

Or maybe they will focus more on defense and improve their goals against this year - certainly Kesler should help in that regard? If their GA and GF both drop, no problem.

Hoping for regression to the mean is hilarious because most people really don't understand it. They tend to look at the stat in isolation, when in fact there are a myriad of ways that the regression can take place. Also, there is no predicting WHEN the regression will occur.

The bottom line here is that Anaheim is a very good team and by pretty much all accounts, they have improved this summer.

[dino7c]

they are the Flames of a few years ago, not quite good enough and delaying the inevitable

[Burke Salad]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Added another year to the Sedins as well. Daniel's going to be 34 to start the season, I think Henrik is as well. Coming off, relatively, terrible years and it might not be entirely because Torts was making them play defense but just because they are past their prime.

You are guessing if the twins are the same age?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Jeff Paterson @patersonjeff
Agent says #Canucks have told Vrbata will play with Sedins

thats a good thing for the GM/Agent to decide in the summer...what could go wrong?

[Read Only]

Looks like a good contract because of the term and the money doesn't handcuff the Canucks based on their salary situation.

Canucks are in a tough spot because they should go for a full rebuild and but with the Sisters still there and basically impossible to move they pretty much will always be too good to fall into the bottom 3.

I guess it makes sense to make some short term signings like this while trying to add some younger pieces as well but as we have seen that is likely just delaying inevitable tear down that will be necessary.

I think many are underestimating the Canucks, likely based on them being rivals. At worst they are pretty similar to the team that started last season, minus a lot of the drama they had.

Miller vs. Luongo fairly similar and a huge upgrade over Lack. Defense pretty much the same as Garrison was crap and Sbisa at least replaces that. Offense loses the top end talent of Kesler but has more depth outside of the top line.

I don't see the Canucks making the play-offs but they should also be comfortably ahead of the bottom 5 teams. I would put them in the 10-12 group ahead of Calgary and Edmonton with Winnipeg and Nashville.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Read Only

Looks like a good contract because of the term and the money doesn't handcuff the Canucks based on their salary situation.

Canucks are in a tough spot because they should go for a full rebuild and but with the Sisters still there and basically impossible to move they pretty much will always be too good to fall into the bottom 3.

I guess it makes sense to make some short term signings like this while trying to add some younger pieces as well but as we have seen that is likely just delaying inevitable tear down that will be necessary.

I think many are underestimating the Canucks, likely based on them being rivals. At worst they are pretty similar to the team that started last season, minus a lot of the drama they had.

Miller vs. Luongo fairly similar and a huge upgrade over Lack. Defense pretty much the same as Garrison was crap and Sbisa at least replaces that. Offense loses the top end talent of Kesler but has more depth outside of the top line.

I don't see the Canucks making the play-offs but they should also be comfortably ahead of the bottom 5 teams. I would put them in the 10-12 group ahead of Calgary and Edmonton with Winnipeg and Nashville.

that is the absolute worst spot to be in

[Read Only]

Originally Posted by dino7c

that is the absolute worst spot to be in

I agree 100% it is a bad spot unless you are a young team on the upswing but for a team like the Canucks it is a bad spot to be.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Burke Salad

I say good on them, they are not throwing in the towel, taking the easy way out like Edmonton!

I don't expect them to throw in the towel, they'll be waving it!

Canucks are no good.

[calumniate]

But vrbata didn't even make the Olympic team! ;-)

[dino7c]

1 more goal than Raymond last season...just saying

[saXon]

Originally Posted by dino7c

they are the Flames of a few years ago, not quite good enough and delaying the inevitable

Also, handcuffed with too many NTC's to count on one hand.

With speculation that Burrows just nixed waiving his NTC, Benning and the Canucks are going to be hurting for a while on some of those deals.

Shades of 2010 Flames.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by saXon

Also, handcuffed with too many NTC's to count on one hand.

With speculation that Burrows just nixed waiving his NTC, Benning and the Canucks are going to be hurting for a while on some of those deals.

Shades of 2010 Flames.

well last year they were the 09 Flames so its fitting

[Takumi3000]

Originally Posted by dino7c

they are the Flames of a few years ago, not quite good enough and delaying the inevitable

They are nothing like that Flames team of a few years ago. That Flames team traded away picks and prospects to acquire older veterans as a band-aid solution with virtually no decent prospects in the cupboard.

Vancouver is doing no such thing and are stockpiling their prospects right now. They are signing these veterans (Miller, Vrbata) to shorter contracts because their main purpose is to show the upcoming prospects a more winning environment and help them along (unlike what Edmonton is doing).

I don't believe this team will truly rebuild until the Sedins are gone. Does it suck that our chances to grab McDavid went down? Hell yes. Does this team have any hope to compete for a Stanley Cup? Nope. But at least they aren't going to be like the Oilers.