Draft Eve Poll: Who do the Flames take tomorrow?

[Bingo]

Some may find this repititious but with so much rumour and speculation I think it would be interesting to relaunch this sucker again.

Not who you want
Who you think they'll take
If you think they trade up fine ... who do they take then
If you think they trade down fine ... who do they take there

[ForeverFlameFan]

With all of the speculation, no team(s) will trade up or anything. It will be all talks.

1. Ekblad
2. Reinhart
3. Draisaitl
4. Bennett

[flambers]

My guess, Flames are unable to trade up.

With the fourth selection the Flames take Sam Bennett

[SHOGUN]

Draisaitl... I honestly think Oilers will take Bennett.

[The Yen Man]

Fingers crossed we somehow get Reinhart. I don't think there's a time I wanted Craig Button to be more right (for his mock draft) than right now.

[RyZ]

They will end up with Bennett, who is my 4th favorite pick of the top 4.

[lanny9]

Hoping for a trade up myself, Draisaitl.

[oldschoolcalgary]

I don't think you can go wrong with any of the top 4... I am hoping for Bennett, but would be happy with Leon or Reinhart too...

[old-fart]

Think the Flames stay at 4 and take Bennett. At different times over the past few months I have hoped for all of the forwards - Leon and both Sams (my assumption has been that Ekblad is gone).

At this point I just can't wait for tomorrow evening.

[JurassicTunga12]

Hoping for Reinhart but we'll most likely get Sam Bennett. I'll be extremely happy with anyone in the top 4 though.

Voted for Reinhart.

[jg13]

I think Ekblad is a lock to Florida, Draisaitl is a lock to Edmonton and Buffalo could take either Sam but i'm leaning towards them taking Reinhart.

Leaving us with Sam Bennett!

[Ulrith]

Have a feeling that Bennett will get the nod before we take Reinhart at 4. Would be happy with either though.

[Parallex]

I want Bennett (of the forwards, I want Ekblad most but figure he'll be gone before 4), but I have a gut feeling he goes to the Sabres, Oilers grab Leon, we take Reinhart.

[N26]

I posted this not too long ago on the "Boomer rumour" thread but it is probably more relevant here.

I have been tracking mock drafts this year. For my own keeper league hockey pool purposes where I happen to own the 4th pick and because I am really excited about Flames hockey again and have been putting far too much of my time into thinking about who they should take at 4.

I have looked far and wide for mocks and included many, even some I’ve seen on the Hockey’s Future boards and other websites where the quality of commentary ranges dramatically. My qualifications are firstly, that picks have to be justified intelligently (i.e. picking Ritchie and saying “truculence!” isn’t enough). Secondly I eliminated any drafts that can be accused of homerism such as a Canadien’s fan who foresaw Ehlers falling to 26th and Demko still available at Montreal’s 2nd round selection. Thirdly I accepted very, very few of the drafts that had user-generated trades because of all the difficulties associated with that. They only account for 3 total votes. Finally, I have given the more established mock drafters, such as Bob McKenzie, ISS, Pronman etc double votes to balance out the weight of the amateurs. So Mckenzie’s choice of Draisaitl going to the Flames lead to 2 votes being entered into the spreadsheet while any list from a lesser known or unknown would get 1 vote. Not foolproof and not really scientific but I tried to make it somewhat defensible.

Below are the stats for the Flames pick up to 10 pm MST this morning. The first total is the overall number. Then the stats are divided into pre-and post-Draft Combine or pull-upgate as it is now better known.

All numbers are expressed in terms of percentage. Fifty-four percent of the votes were recorded before and during the combine, forty-six percent afterwards.

Overall
Sam Bennett 40.00%
Leon Draisaitl 18.37%
Sam Reinhart 16.73%
Michael Dal Colle 13.06%
Nick Ritchie 4.49%
William Nylander 3.67%
Jake Virtanen 1.63%
Nikolaj Ehlers 1.22%
Aaron Ekblad 0.83%

Pre-Combine
Sam Bennett 38.30%
Leon Draisaitl 19.15%
Michael Dal Colle 15.60%
Sam Reinhart 14.18%
William Nylander 5.67%
Nick Ritchie 3.55%
Jake Virtanen 2.84%
Aaron Ekblad 0.71%

Post-Combine
Sam Bennett 42.31%
Sam Reinhart 20.39%
Leon Draisaitl 17.31%
Michael Dal Colle 9.62%
Nick Ritchie 5.77%
Nikolaj Ehlers 2.88%
Aaron Ekblad 0.97%
William Nylander 0.97%

The Obvious:

A very insignificant number of mock drafters (0.83%) think Ekblad will sethjones his way down to the 4th pick.

Bennett is clearly the player most expected to go at 4 (both pre- and post-Combine) but yet not by anything approaching half of the drafters.


Risers and Fallers:

Dal Colle, Nylander and Virtanen have seen their pre-Combine numbers drop significantly with Reinhart and Bennett picking up their votes.

While Virtanen did not have many votes before the Combine he has had none since.

Reinhart has, in the last few days, been picked often at 4. Approximately 65% of the time. Three days ago he was behind Dal Colle in the overall but blew by him and is gaining rapidly on Draisaitl for 2nd place.

Bennett saw a big jump immediately after pull-upgate as many seemed to see him as the fourth of the big 4 for a about a week.

Draisaitl’s numbers have been very consistent around 18% of drafters

Ritchie has not had a significant boost despite all the talk about him of late.

Ehlers got no votes before the combine but got a few after

Conclusion:

The Flames will draft someone, possibly Sam Bennett.


Not very helpful I know, but it does put some numbers to the conversation such as there is a 75.1% chance we get a centre.


Perhaps you see something else in them

[Eric]

Originally Posted by JurassicTunga12

Hoping for Reinhart but we'll most likely get Sam Bennett. I'll be extremely happy with anyone in the top 4 though.

Voted for Reinhart.

Based on what the poll is asking I think you should've voted for Bennett

[nik-]

playing the optimist and going with Reinhart

[the_only_turek_fan]

Samson Reinhart.

[JurassicTunga12]

Originally Posted by Eric

Based on what the poll is asking I think you should've voted for Bennett

Ehh, I've been thinking Reinhart will drop to #4 for a month or two now. I've kinda flip flopped in the last couple days, but I will stick with thinking Reinhart being a Flame tomorrow!

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Right now this all depends on what the teams ahead of us do so its pretty hard to forecast.

I still think it likely that one of the Sams will fall to us. Which one? I don't know.

Big centres always go high on draft day, usually higher than the scouting services have them. So I think Draisaitl is a good bet to be gone by our pick.

At this point I'd be pretty happy with any of the supposed consensus top 4 guys.

[dammage79]

It's Draisaitl. I want Bennett or Draisaitl so whatever happens is a win win.