Prognosticating which of the "top 4" will be available at #4

[sureLoss]

Apologies for another 4th overall thread.

Had some free time and wrote a spreadsheet model that will calculate the probability Ekblad, Bennett, Draisaitl and Reinhart will be available to the Flames based on what a person believes the probabilities Florida, Buffalo and Edmonton will pick those 4 or another prospect.

Screenshot:


In the above screenshot I entered (blue text) the probabilities I thought Florida, Buffalo and Edmonton would pick the top 4 prospects if all 4 were available to each of those teams, and the model then calculated the chances the players would still be available at Calgary's pick in row 5.

Don't agree with the probabilities? Well you can play around with them here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

To prevent anyone from screwing up the spreadsheet, I disabled editing, however you can Save a copy to your Google account (sign in to google first) that allows editing by File->Make a Copy... or get an Excel compatible file on your computer by File->Download as->Microsoft Excel (note that these commands are not done via your web browser's menus but through Google's spreadsheet menus).

There are some instructions and notes about the model in the spreadsheet.

I have tested the model against a simple draft simulator I wrote, so I am fairly confident that the model is accurate.

Let me know if you have any questions or bugs to report.

[Simon96Taco]

I like math.

[Soliak]

Would suck dick for Reinhart. No homo.

[T@T]

So what happens if I don't agree with the Florida 65% for Ekblad.

I like math too, but not tonight!

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Soliak

Would suck dick for Reinhart. No homo.

I'll take a wild stab and say you're in denial.

[Caged Great]

I would be thrilled to get Reinhart Bennett or Draisaitl. I don't think Ekblad makes it passed 3.

My preference would be Reinhart --> Bennett --> Draisaitl.

In each case, we'd be set for the next decade up the middle.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by Soliak

Would suck dick for Reinhart. No homo.

[dammage79]

It's tough to argue I find when the four players Calgary can pick is a win win for the Flames.

Preferences aside, whoever they take is a good pick. At this point now I think I'm going to brush up on the 2nd and 3rd round preferences and gladly scour the new FC draft guide that dropped today.

That's where the debate gets fun I think. And the draft is so wide open down around those picks that almost any late first to late second round player can be available.

[Roof-Daddy]

Gah!

Now I find myself warming up to the idea of Draisaitl as well. I like speed, but his skating doesn't seem as bad as I had originally heard, and two big, beefy centers like him and Monahan would be great to build around in the tough division we are in.

Really, at this point my preference is to nab any of the three centers ahead of Ekblad.

[calgARI]

More importantly, what are the odds that the draft order ends up Florida-Buffalo-Edmonton-Calgary?

Seems pretty unlikely.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Soliak

Would suck dick for Reinhart. No homo.

I will pass that message along to Reinhart... We'll see if it will help with the contract negotiations.

[BigRed]

Thnk the flames would like Reinhart with big bro knocking on the door. Hope it works out.

[Yrebmi]

I would love for us to get Sam Reinhart.
He has not bad size, RH shot, and is easier to spell than Draisaitl.

Reinhart is over a year younger than Draisaitl. Although that might be mitigated somewhat if you take into account Leon has had only a couple years with quality competition over here.
Finally wasn't there some comment made about Draisaitl wanting to be an Oiler a while back? Kind of soured me on him.

[monkeyman]

Originally Posted by Soliak

Would suck dick for Reinhart. No homo.

You should go to the draft. If he slips past Florida and Buffalo, It might be up to you to convince Craig Mactavish...

[SHOGUN]

I don't understand the Reinhart to RNH comparisions... although similar in their offensive instinct/style, Reinhart is much more complete player than RNH.

[Vox]

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

I would love for us to get Sam Reinhart.
He has not bad size, RH shot, and is easier to spell than Draisaitl.

Reinhart is over a year younger than Draisaitl. Although that might be mitigated somewhat if you take into account Leon has had only a couple years with quality competition over here.
Finally wasn't there some comment made about Draisaitl wanting to be an Oiler a while back? Kind of soured me on him.

Not so sure. Hockeydb shows their births are 10 days apart. They shouldn't be in the same draft if they are over a year apart.

[kyuss275]

Sureloss you spend a lot of time getting us yokels info. I would hate to lose you, but you should start up your own hockey website. I am sure there is some money to be made for someone as enthusiastic and hard working as yourself.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

Reinhart is over a year younger than Draisaitl.

If that was the case they couldn't be picked in the same draft

[The Professor]

Ekblad Bennett Reinhart Draisaitl
Florida 50% 20% 25% 5%
Buffalo 10% 35% 35% 20%
Edmonton 40% 20% 10% 30%
Calgary 15% 24% 31% 29%

Doesn't line up right.(EDIT better) Here is my thinking. Pretty up in the air. A lot depends on who Buff picks...

[greentree]

I think you've come close to nailing it, sureLoss (Bennett to Buffalo a fair bit more likely than Reinhart imo.)