We think the Vancouver Canucks may have a scouting problem(!!!!)

[King Theo]

http://canucksarmy.com/2014/5/20/we-...outing-problem

I seen this story go by on twitter. It looks like Vancouver can draft player either. They redid all of the drafts from 2000 on. They only drafted forwards out of the CHL and all they did was take the highest point, 17 year old player available at their draft pick.

Using this method they would have played 4013 more games, scored 957 more goals and 1556 more assists


Some of the players they could have drafted were Justin Williams, Stajan, Mike Richards, Max Talbot, Claude Giroux, Tyler Ennis...

[red sky]

Saw

[Mars]

Originally Posted by red sky

Saw

[saillias]

Amusing article, but with Benning just hired kind of poor timing for them to take this stand...

[EldrickOnIce]

Yeah. Amusing but useless.
We will not draft defence
We will only draft CHL
Etc.

[Erick Estrada]

Sad truth is that you could probably draft just off the Hockey News and do as well or better than half the franchises in the league which is no different than say Mel Kiper doing a better job than some NFL GM's. Problem is that teams have specific needs at times that aren't reflected on the order of a top prospects list as well there's luck involved as even consensus top ranked prospects frequently bust. I think where organizations get in trouble is when they draft off the board frequently or get overly fixed on physical measurables like size or speed. It's one thing to occasionally find a diamond in the ruff but constantly thinking you are smarter than all the other teams and scouting services can be a recipe for a poor prospect base.

[Northendzone]

how many teams have a flawless draft record?

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Yeah. Amusing but useless.
We will not draft defence
We will only draft CHL
Etc.

I think you missed the point, which was that even when you create a ridiculously restrictive and simplistic set of rules that are applied automatically with no discretion allowed, not only does this produce better results than the actual scouting staff but it's not even close.

The methodology isn't sound mostly because of item 4, which can't be applied prospectively. It requires that you take the highest scoring CHL forward who actually was taken between that pick and the next one, so unless you can predict the future as to who would otherwise be taken you're SOL. Of course, you could just use a central scouting list instead, but who knows how that would turn out.

[EldrickOnIce]

No. I got the point.

[You Need a Thneed]

Using the same methodology on any team in the league would likely produce similar results.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Using the same methodology on any team in the league would likely produce similar results.

Never drafting defence virtually guarantees it

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

how many teams have a flawless draft record?

Maybe 2011

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Yeah. Amusing but useless.
We will not draft defence
We will only draft CHL
Etc.

With Sham's drafting, you could trade a dozen assets for all the defence and Euros you need! That said, the major flaw in methodology (which was noted in the Canucks Army comments) was the restriction on taking the highest scoring forward between that pick, and Vancouver's next selection. It is understandable why they did it though - having to chose the highest scoring out of all available picks would have taken forever. But, that restriction makes the methodology useless when looking forward in time.

The flip side, of course, is that we also know via the Oilers that choosing the highest ranked available player according to The Hockey News doesn't work either.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

With Sham's drafting, you could trade a dozen assets for all the defence and Euros you need!

Haha yeah, true enough

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The flip side, of course, is that we also know via the Oilers that choosing the highest ranked available player according to The Hockey News doesn't work either.

It certainly seems that the Oilers when it comes to the first round are picking right off THN's draft preview but after that they tend to go off the map hence their poor organizational depth.

[devo22]

stuff like that may be a pointless exercise, but can yield interesting results nevertheless.

I just took one of the weakest drafts in Flames history (2005) and the CSS Final Rankings from that year. If we make the experiment and just select the highest ranked player on the CSS rankings with every pick, how would that compare to our actual draft? Answer: equally bad despite the fact that all selections in this hypothetical draft were in the top 70 on the CSS list!

Darryl Sutter's draft:

1st 26 D Matt Pelech (Sarnia Sting)
3rd 69 D Gord Baldwin (Medicine Hat Tigers)
3rd 74 C Dan Ryder (Peterborough Petes)
4th 111 R J.D. Watt (Vancouver Giants)
5th 128 G Kevin Lalande (Belleville Bulls)
5th 158 G Matt Keetley (Medicine Hat Tigers)
6th 179 C Brett Sutter (Kootenay Ice)
7th 221 D Myles Rumsey (Swift Current Broncos)

And here's the "take the best player from the CSS rankings" mock draft:

1st 26 C Ryan Stoa (US National U-18) --> CSS Final Ranking: 12
3rd 69 R Dan Collins (Plymouth Whalers) --> CSS Final Ranking: 24
3rd 74 L Patrick Davis (Kitchener Rangers) --> CSS Final Ranking: 26
4th 111 C Nick Drazenovic (Prince George Cougars) --> CSS Final Ranking: 29
5th 128 D Paul Kurceba (Red Deer Rebels) --> CSS Final Ranking: 37
5th 158 D Jean-Philippe Paquet (Shawinigan Cataractes) --> CSS Final Ranking: 42
6th 179 C Christian Hanson (Tri-City Americans) --> CSS Final Ranking: 66
7th 221 D Deverea Heshmatpour (Oshawa Generals) --> CSS Final Ranking: 68

EDIT: pretty much the same for 2006. Victor Bartley in the 7th round would win this for the mock draft, the rest is brutal.

1st 26 G Leland Irving (Everett Silvertips)
3rd 87 C John Armstrong (Plymouth Whalers)
3rd 89 C Aaron Marvin (Warroad High School)
4th 118 C Hugo Carpentier (Rouyn-Noranda Huskies)
5th 149 R Juuso Puustinen (Kalpa)
6th 179 L Jordan Fulton (Breck School)
6th 187 D Devin Didiomete (Sudbury Wolves)
7th 209 C Per Jonsson (Farjestad)

vs

1st 26 L Cory Emmerton (Kingston Frontenacs) --> CSS Final Ranking: 10
3rd 87 D Ben Shutron (Kingston Frontenacs) --> CSS Final Ranking: 16
3rd 89 C Bobby Hughes (Kingston Frontenacs) --> CSS Final Ranking: 25
4th 118 D Graham Potuer (Everett Silvertips) --> CSS Final Ranking: 43
5th 149 C Aaron Marvin (Warroad High School) --> CSS Final Ranking: 50
6th 179 C John Armstrong (Plymouth Whalers) --> CSS Final Ranking: 51
6th 187 C Benjamin Breault (Baie-Comeau Drakkar) --> CSS Final Ranking: 57
7th 209 D Victor Bartley (Kamloops Blazers) --> CSS Final Ranking: 64

[Reaper]

I stopped reading when he laid out the hashtag #ShouldOf Drafted.

ugh

[FAN]

As far as the first round, how much of it is scouting and how much of it is the GM? Burke in his later years and Nonis appears to have had a clear preference for college players. Had Gillis been the one to pick, he might have drafted Richards over Kesler given Gillis' preference for OHL players.

[FAN]

Duplicate post

[4oh3]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

how many teams have a flawless draft record?

Oilers?