How Long Will This Re-Build Be?

[Vinny01]

I am optimistic the team is closing in on a playoff spot in 2-3 years. I think if they get a top 5 pick next year who could make the team as a 18 year old. Our 2014 pick likely plays in the 15/16 season.

I am also optimistic we are in for a couple of wins via trade that will speed things up

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Very far off being a contender, yes. Were we very far off of being an average team? I don't think so

Take a look at Minnesota's roster and let me know how close we are to that. IMO, 3 years is a much more reasonable prediction in the west to make the playoffs.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by JD

Contender - The core of the roster is mid to late in their prime, draft picks are used as trade bait, especially at the deadline. Expectations are Cup or bust. Teams like Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh are here. This is where the Flames were trying to be 2007 to 2012, but just couldn't get over the hump. This is the dangerous phase where if the GM is reckless with draft picks and the roster is not supplemented by youth over time, you will find your team in the next phase....

This is what sets organizations apart. Chicago has managed to win while developing their own talent and managing non core players so well. Granted when you draft a Toews at four and Win the draft lottery to nab Kane, you have the hockey God's on your side setting you up - but they look to remain a perennial contender. This is what the Flames must aspire to. For so many years they gave away so many picks chasing the dream that the prospect pool was bankrupt. This must never happen again

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Take a look at Minnesota's roster and let me know how close we are to that. IMO, 3 years is a much more reasonable prediction in the west to make the playoffs.

Take a free agent Suter off that club and I am not sure they are a playoff team, but they developed great home grown pieces in place first.

[Vinny01]

I have been reading the flames hf thread where the oilers trolls are out in full force talking about 5 years minimum. They look at their team with multiple top 10 picks and the flames still do not have the elite talent they do.

What will set these teams apart is late round picks and trades. I am confident under Burke/Treliving the flames are in line for some shrewd trades. Colborne and Smid were very solid pickups for very little and both players likely have not reached their potential yet.

The Flames drafting outside the first round since 2008 in my opinion. Bouma, Brodie in 08, Ortio in 09, Reinhart, Arnold, Ferland in 10, Granlund, Wortherspoon, Gaudreau in 11, and Gillies in 12. All very good picks with some potential impact players in that group.

Edmonton hasn't been able to develop anyone outside of their top picks in the same time frame

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I have been reading the flames hf thread where the oilers trolls are out in full force talking about 5 years minimum. They look at their team with multiple top 10 picks and the flames still do not have the elite talent they do.

What will set these teams apart is late round picks and trades. I am confident under Burke/Treliving the flames are in line for some shrewd trades. Colborne and Smid were very solid pickups for very little and both players likely have not reached their potential yet.

The Flames drafting outside the first round since 2008 in my opinion. Bouma, Brodie in 08, Ortio in 09, Reinhart, Arnold, Ferland in 10, Granlund, Wortherspoon, Gaudreau in 11, and Gillies in 12. All very good picks with some potential impact players in that group.

Edmonton hasn't been able to develop anyone outside of their top picks in the same time frame

This is exactly it. For every player you can develop outside the top pick it makes the rebuild faster. Over the last decade the Oilers have only developed a handful of players. If you can only develop one player a year then you are behind the eight ball.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I have been reading the flames hf thread where the oilers trolls are out in full force talking about 5 years minimum. They look at their team with multiple top 10 picks and the flames still do not have the elite talent they do.

What will set these teams apart is late round picks and trades. I am confident under Burke/Treliving the flames are in line for some shrewd trades. Colborne and Smid were very solid pickups for very little and both players likely have not reached their potential yet.

The Flames drafting outside the first round since 2008 in my opinion. Bouma, Brodie in 08, Ortio in 09, Reinhart, Arnold, Ferland in 10, Granlund, Wortherspoon, Gaudreau in 11, and Gillies in 12. All very good picks with some potential impact players in that group.

Edmonton hasn't been able to develop anyone outside of their top picks in the same time frame

Only two of those players are NHL'ers. You're falling into the prospect trap.

[PeteMoss]

Its not usually a linear path.

A lot of recent teams added a big piece in a year - improved that year and then moved up into a strong playoff team the year after that.
Chicago - added Kane, improved to a borderline playoff team that year and then made the conference finals the year after.
LA - added Doughty - came close to making the playoffs that year and then made the playoffs the year after.
Pittsburgh - added Crosby (still sucked), added Malkin the next year - made the playoffs that year.


To be honest - the Flames aren't that far behind teams like Nashville/Phoenix if things go right next year they could be in that mix as a borderline playoff team.

Now if things go wrong and they suck next year and get an elite player that they could easily be in playoffs in the season after.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by nik-

Only two of those players are NHL'ers. You're falling into the prospect trap.

This is a good point. Nothing against guys like Reinhart, Ferland and Arnold but very likely they aren't difference makers anywhere. They are just depth pieces. You hope they turn into something more than bottom line forwards but its all just hope.

You can go back to those HF prospect listings threads and watch people argue until they are blue in the face that guys like Boyd and Negrin are better than the prospect lists and HF just hates the Flames... but for the most part they were right and those guys amounted to very little.

[Tyler]

Don't discount Ferland. I think he may surprise a few next year.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

This is a good point. Nothing against guys like Reinhart, Ferland and Arnold but very likely they aren't difference makers anywhere. They are just depth pieces. You hope they turn into something more than bottom line forwards but its all just hope.

You can go back to those HF prospect listings threads and watch people argue until they are blue in the face that guys like Boyd and Negrin are better than the prospect lists and HF just hates the Flames... but for the most part they were right and those guys amounted to very little.

Isn't the difference between a contending team and the pretenders depth? It is the combination of hitting it out of the park with your top picks and surrounding them with quality depth guys like Saad, Hjalmarsson, Kreger, Shaw, Bickell (You can add Bolland and big Buf) all drafted outside the first. The key is getting starters out of the first round so you aren't forced to over pay in FA for that player.

I do agree that not all will pan out, but you only need a handful of the 30 prospects listed last summer we have pan out as long as you continue to add quality (which can be the case when you can draft 6 times in the first 100 or so picks like this year).

[lazypucker]

Making the playoffs is not too difficult, there is only a 10-point gap or so, a couple more wins here and there combined with a couple losses by the other teams will make that up.

But, making the playoffs and winning a round or two are worlds apart, especially we are talking about the Calgary Flames, who hasn't won a single playoff round for 10 years, and then another 15 years before that....

I am going to say that the Flames can make the playoffs in about 2 years, but won't be able to win a round for another 2 years. Final 4/contenders maybe 7 or 8 years from now.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by nik-

Only two of those players are NHL'ers. You're falling into the prospect trap.

I agree if our prospects don't pan out we are no further ahead than Edmonton but at least a few of those players have played in the NHL and are making big impacts in the leagues they are from. It is rare and tough for late round picks to make the NHL and an impact there until 3-4 years after they were drafted

[skudr248]

7-8 years to be contenders? pff no way

Originally Posted by lazypucker

Making the playoffs is not too difficult, there is only a 10-point gap or so, a couple more wins here and there combined with a couple losses by the other teams will make that up.

But, making the playoffs and winning a round or two are worlds apart, especially we are talking about the Calgary Flames, who hasn't won a single playoff round for 10 years, and then another 15 years before that....

I am going to say that the Flames can make the playoffs in about 2 years, but won't be able to win a round for another 2 years. Final 4/contenders maybe 7 or 8 years from now.

[Burke Salad]

I say 5 years minimum, unless we can pull off one of those Lindros type deals after landing a kid like MacDavid in the draft. and I wouldnt condone a deal like that, stick with the generational player.

[Vulcan]

Non-Intellectual Honesty - This is the phase where the core of the team is grinding its way out of their prime, youth is not supplanting the aging core, and yet the goal remains the Stanley Cup. Of course, with players that are older, probably slower, and less able to keep up with the physicality, you cannot win the Cup. But you sacrifice draft picks anyway, only to find yourself just missing the playoffs or losing in the first round. If you stay in this phase too long, your assets get harder and harder to replenish. And that's when you find yourself back at the beginning, in the Rebuilding phase. But only after you have achieved Intellectual Honesty.

This is why we've put a hockey man in charge of overseeing the team. In the past it's looked like people in charge have looked more at the cash bottom line, their relationships with the players and their own egos to decide the future of the team.

[EldrickOnIce]

The oilers had/have almost zero in the system prior to all their 1st ov picks and Gagner. Is there a single player from prior to then anywhere now? Even picks outside first ov haven't been very good.
So you need to draft/develop/acquire 25 guys. That takes a long time, even if you do everything else right.