How Long Will This Re-Build Be?

[Brannigans Law]

I find it's so easy to just throw around 5 years, 2 years, etc, and declare we'll be rebuilt by then. Who knows. Will the west be this hard in 2 years? Will it get harder? Will it get easier? Maybe Gaudreau turns into a super star, maybe he's a total bust. At least were heading in the right direction and not depleting our draft picks and bleeding our future like previous regimes.

You gotta think that in a league where slightly over half the teams make the playoffs that we will get in by a pure numbers game in the next couple seasons.. but this is where the west strength comes into play. Some pretty decently teams and well run franchises missed the playoffs... it will be a very tough go next season.

So I guess my short answer is .. if things go perfectly the rebuilds done in 2 years and we can move into reload territory. If things go ok, longer.

[Caged Great]

Defense and goaltending is the main area of concern. Will Ortio and Gillies step up to be at least Crawford level good? Is our next great goalie even in the organization yet? We don't really have that many good defenders either, so that will need to be addressed sooner preferably than later.

[trackercowe]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

You don't need to be a good team to make the playoffs, you only need to be average

Unless they undergo significant changes, you do need to be a good team to finish top three in our division. I suppose that leaves two seeds still open, but it's going to take quite a bit to consistently compete with the Ducks, Kings, and Sharks (even 3-4 years from now).

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

They were a long ways off. It was entertaining but they weren't even close. I could see the flames being the same or slightly worse next year.

So using your terminology , in 3 years the flames will be average.

I went from being sure they'll be worse next year to being sure they're making the playoffs. I'm nothing if not consistent!

[OzSome]

patience... I think they'll start making playoff the year after next season. Then they'll progress after that.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by trackercowe

Unless they undergo significant changes, you do need to be a good team to finish top three in our division. I suppose that leaves two seeds still open, but it's going to take quite a bit to consistently compete with the Ducks, Kings, and Sharks (even 3-4 years from now).

We don't need to be top three though, do we??

[Brannigans Law]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

We don't need to be top three though, do we??

nope. just have to be better than Nashville, Phoenix, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Minnesota, for the wildcard spots. Edmonton of course will be in the toilet.

But in all seriousness that's the thing. Maybe Edmonton finally stops sucking and they start doing ok? I mean I know I'm talking crazy here but just consider that as an outlier to explain how difficult the west can get.

[driveway]

Ideally we'll be contenders when the major pieces of our new core are between 24 and 26 years old. Monahan will be 20 for the 14-15 season, Gaudreau 21, Jankowski 20, our 2014 draft pick will be 18 or 19, and our 2015 pick will be 17 or 18.

Best-case scenario: we overachieve, one of our goalies turns out to be a top-ten goalie, our '14 and '15 picks are home-runs, Gaudreau exceeds expectations and we're contending for Division titles and Conference Finals when he's 24. So the likely best-case is a surprise wild-card appearance in the 2016 playoffs. A solid 2nd or 3rd in the division in 2016-2017, and then the Conference Finals or better in 2017-18.

More likely: We're not seriously contending in the West until Gaudreau is around 27-28, giving us a realistic goal of making the Conference Finals in 2021 or 2022.

[trackercowe]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

We don't need to be top three though, do we??

No, but the aim shouldn't be to merely make the playoffs. Not that you can't win the cup as a lower seed, as that's obviously been proven wrong. It's just that the odds are pretty lowto only be competing for those bottom two spots. In the old format that's all well and good, but with this new format the goal should really be to be a top three team, and only fall into those wild card spots if need be.

[TheDebaser]

How do you guys respond to the argument that this team put up a playoff pace after the Vancouver Brawl?

[AcGold]

With the fall of San Jose and Vancouver the playoffs aren't entirely out if the picture next year. Contending against LA or Chicago is another thing entirely, we can contend once players like Toews and Doughty are past their prime

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by TheDebaser

How do you guys respond to the argument that this team put up a playoff pace after the Vancouver Brawl?

Almost everything went right.

Everything usually doesn't go right.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by trackercowe

No, but the aim shouldn't be to merely make the playoffs.

This is a predictions thread though, not a goals thread. I agree just getting in isn't good enough, I do think they can do it next year though. 91 points? Sure, why not

[DoubleF]

Either next year or year after we might be in bubble zone. Even if we make it in, we never make it past round 2. I agree with many saying we're not serious contenders until about 3 years+. For now, we're just cannon fodder and I'm fine with that as long as we keep it closer (like, within 1 goal like last year and thus, entertaining) just like we did last year.

I might get flack for this comment, but I'd rather Bob Hartley screw around with lines for the first few months again so that all the players learn different things from one another, figure out what type of chemistry each players have with others, and then settle on lines maybe December and January. It would help greatly to figure out combinations if any players get injured. I'm sure some of you would love a JG-Mony-Coly line right away, but this is a rebuild. If we don't experiment now, what do we do when we lose a player during playoffs? Perhaps we will indeed get this line as a permanent line after December or something, but why settle so fast? Furthermore, we might end up with players that would make even more magic than that line. One can only dream that a big name shows up and we all ponder incredulously at how Treliving and Burke wove magic into the squad.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by trackercowe

No, but the aim shouldn't be to merely make the playoffs. Not that you can't win the cup as a lower seed, as that's obviously been proven wrong. It's just that the odds are pretty lowto only be competing for those bottom two spots. In the old format that's all well and good, but with this new format the goal should really be to be a top three team, and only fall into those wild card spots if need be.

No one said that should be the aim.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I agree 100 percent. Just not sure why people think it will be so long until we make the playoffs. We don't need to be a contender to get there. We weren't that far off this year IMO

IMO we were very far off this year. We were playing hard and competing, but we were getting the backup goaltenders, we were the team that other teams were trying not to let their guard down - not the team that other teams circle on their calender as a litmus test to see if they are a contender or now. Its a big jump to that IMO...

As for the question... 3 years assuming Ramo keeps playing like a No 1 goalie and Gio and Brodie continue to play like a legit top 2 D.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

IMO we were very far off this year. We were playing hard and competing, but we were getting the backup goaltenders, we were the team that other teams were trying not to let their guard down - not the team that other teams circle on their calender as a litmus test to see if they are a contender or now. Its a big jump to that IMO...

As for the question... 3 years assuming Ramo keeps playing like a No 1 goalie and Gio and Brodie continue to play like a legit top 2 D.

Very far off being a contender, yes. Were we very far off of being an average team? I don't think so

[bubbsy]

i think it would be great for the flames to land in the bottom 5 again this coming season which could really enhance our youth movement with a high skill player, and hopefully another top pick if we trade out some of the vets (ie. glencross), as the next draft (2015) is supposedly a doozy wiht high end talent.

after that, it's really upto our gm and management to get the stockpile of youth developed, but more importantly use their skills in asset management to build a team around the youth.

I don't think you have to go out and draft your entire top 6 forwards, top 4 dmen, and starting goalie (naturally that is the ideal but unlikely). With the assets collected (including free cap space) the GM must use the trade or free agent route to go out and fill the gaps. that is where we see a lot of these long rebuilds failing (oilers, panthers, islanders).

[EldrickOnIce]

One hopes they make the playoffs while the first pick that started rebuild is still on their ELC.
That's Monahan and two more years.
This type of progression.
I would have said impossible - but have upgraded now to Possible but unlikely.

[JD]

There are several phases in the team-building life-cycle, and they have to be defined in order to answer this question. I would suggest they would something like this:

Rebuilding - this is the process of swapping out older, bigger-contract players for younger, rawer assets with potential. Essentially, it is a stripping down and refurbishing of the NHL roster and prospect base. Value comes from a player's potential rather than his ability to produce now. Free agents are left to others and a premium is placed on the draft. Playoffs are not an expectation. The Flames are clearly in this phase, the Canucks seem to be entering it.

Growth - this is the phase where you allow the assets acquired in the Rebuilding phase to ripen. They grow and your team grows with them. You begin to allow the acquiring of assets through means such as free agent signings (UFA, RFA) as well as continuing to draft and develop effectively. Playoffs become a viable goal, but is not necessarily achieved. I would argue the Oilers are in this phase, but their execution is, well, no good. Other teams like the Stars and Islanders are in this phase, the Hurricanes seem to be perpetually in this phase.

Prime Core - the core of the building roster is now entering their prime, ie, 24 to 31. The roster must be supplemented by mature journeymen rather than raw rookies, because the goal is not just making the playoffs, but to win in the playoffs. Draft picks become carrots to dangle to add more mature talent to push the team to the next phase. Teams like Phoenix, Montreal, Anaheim, perhaps St. Louis are in this phase.

Contender - The core of the roster is mid to late in their prime, draft picks are used as trade bait, especially at the deadline. Expectations are Cup or bust. Teams like Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh are here. This is where the Flames were trying to be 2007 to 2012, but just couldn't get over the hump. This is the dangerous phase where if the GM is reckless with draft picks and the roster is not supplemented by youth over time, you will find your team in the next phase....

Non-Intellectual Honesty - This is the phase where the core of the team is grinding its way out of their prime, youth is not supplanting the aging core, and yet the goal remains the Stanley Cup. Of course, with players that are older, probably slower, and less able to keep up with the physicality, you cannot win the Cup. But you sacrifice draft picks anyway, only to find yourself just missing the playoffs or losing in the first round. If you stay in this phase too long, your assets get harder and harder to replenish. And that's when you find yourself back at the beginning, in the Rebuilding phase. But only after you have achieved Intellectual Honesty.

So based on this lifecycle, I would say the Flames have already entered the late stages of Rebuilding. The roster has been almost completely turned over from the Iginla era. Depending on how many young players join the NHL roster this fall, the playoffs could be in their sights as early as next year. I don't think you would know that until you saw how the team gels early next season. So from management's perspective, they have to view this off-season as a continuation of the rebuilding phase. Perhaps mid-season that can re-evaluated, and certainly by next spring.

I think it is very plain to see that these phases exist, it's just not obvious when a team is graduating from one to the next. It happens right in front of your eyes on the ice. This team could easily make that transition to the Growth phase this coming year. But clearly from this thread, most fans are expecting it to take a bit (or a lot) longer. But I wouldn't say the "rebuild" is over when the team wins a Cup. The team is nearly "rebuilt" already. They will soon need to grow.