CP Mafia 2 - Town Square Showdown - Game Over

[Baxter Renegade]

Originally Posted by kermitology

Vote: Baxter Renegade

You will RUE the day...

[Mazrim]

Vote Count:

With 20 alive, it takes 11 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 7 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn’t Voted (12): Hockeyguy15, CofR, transplant99, Crazy Bacon Legs, ineedanother, Lego Man, undercoverbrother, Street Pharmacist, Aeneas, Completely, DropIt, Rathji

Voting:
starseed (5): HalifaxDrunk, Baxter Renegade, Oling_Roachinen, flameswin, strombad
CaptainCrunch (1): starseed
Lego Man (1): CaptainCrunch
Baxter Renegade (1): kermitology

Deadline is Thursday, May 15th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

GP_Matt ends up town, GGG ends up town, Timbo ends up town, activeStick ends up town, hmmhmmcamo ends up town, Rathji is the only one on that list that has yet to be revealed.

Those early lists of ineedanother that Starseed was trying to push for us to follow have not been in towns favour at all. Ineedanother is obviously town but now it's making sense why a player like bizaro86 were happy to follow ineedanother based on his early posts. starseed was another person who supported following ineedanother. Maybe bad luck as his reasoning made sense but the fact that ineedanother's list hasn't revealed a mafia and starseed pushed so hard makes it very suspicious.

Vote: starseed

Flipped through things again, and this is the only logic that stands out to me.

Vote: starseed

[Street Pharmacist]

I've reviewed the posts since day one a couple times trying to focus on different posters each time and try to get a feel of they're hiding something or not.

Aeneas - Posts seem to be under the radar type posts, not trying to figure out scum posts. That's the feel I got. I didn't feel there was anything "for sure" town.
Baxter Renegade - mistook which mafia killed GGG. Would a Mafia do that? Might have been intentional, but that would be high level deception IMO.
Flameswin - some posts seen very town, but a couple stood out. The biggest one was yesterday when he said starseed's defense post was very convincing. Might be a good way to deflect votes?

I got no good townie vibes from reading starseed's posts so...

Vote: Starseed

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

.
Flameswin - some posts seen very town, but a couple stood out. The biggest one was yesterday when he said starseed's defense post was very convincing. Might be a good way to deflect votes?

I got no good townie vibes from reading starseed's posts so...

Vote: Starseed

That was more of an "in the moment" post, was it fairly convincing. However, based on all his other posts, I'm sticking with him as my vote and it seems most are.

What other post stood out to you?

[jayswin]

*it was fairly convincing. Typo

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by flameswin

That was more of an "in the moment" post, was it fairly convincing. However, based on all his other posts, I'm sticking with him as my vote and it seems most are.

What other post stood out to you?

Funny. I went looking for it and found this:

QUOTE=flameswin;4760487]Yeah, actually starseed looks like a very obvious target for the town considering what's transpired. Plus, if you go over his body of work from the beginning he's aroused suspicion from multiple posters, and posts pretty defensively.

Let's investigate that some more. Also, two key things to look for; Who has stuck up for him in the past, and; Watch for who sticks up for him now.[/QUOTE]

So ignore my flameswin opinion. I'll have to look again

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by starseed

Alright, I am going to make this quick and dirty because I don't have to worry about offending specific people who could target me in a night kill etc. I was frustrated when activeStick flipped town not only because he was town, but because he didn't leave behind a solid group of names with reasoning. Town flips can still be useful when they leave behind their list of suspects that we can use because we would know that they aren't mafia trying to direct us.

First I am going to look at the known flips, bizaro - Parker, devo - Barrow.

bizaro:

• lynched hmmhmmcamo, and agulati, then was killed by barrow
• advocated low post count targets (just looked up counts, devo and bizaro are around the middle, but that could be coincidence based on mafia targeting people based on post activity level?)
• Attacks rathji, then backs off and votes ineedanother
• unvotes after vig reveal, then encourages potential real vig to come out and kill ineedanother
• expressed support for following ineedanother
• posts a lot about CBL, not necessarily anything damning, but does bring him up a lot
• pushes agulati lynch when votes were going their way
• targets HD (could be proof parker targeted delgar, as he mentions it)
• points to GGG's suspects of Baxter, aS, strombad, Legoman
• joins CC in targeting Legoman
• tries to focus town into voting agulati when others were voting aS, Lego, baxter, tranny, CBL

devo:

• lynched hmmhmmcamo, and agulati, votes tranny while aS got lynched, then is killed by parker
• defends HG
• agrees with CC's reasoning in voting ineedanother, but doesnt vote
• expresses shock at ineedanother's reveal, frustration with coming out
• votes tranny after the reveal
• posts that he was going out for beers while setting hmmhmmcamo vote, then posts every couple of hours after that to check on the vote
• supports agulati push, targets tranny again
• votes agulati
• votes tranny when most others were targeting aS

So my guess from oling's list is:


Barrow Mafia kills:
Day 1: GP_Matt (targeting bold player, could have been targeting mafia as GPMatt was suspicious for advocating doc/cop reveal strategy, and appeared on ineedanother's list)
Day 2: bizaro86 (targeting strong player?)
Day 3: GGG (strong player targeting specific players, including me. Could have been attempt to target mafia with the bonus of casting suspicion if incorrect)

Parker Mafia kills:
Day 1: Delgar (targeting strong players from last game, casting suspicion on HD)
Day 2: dsavillian (targeting someone that aroused suspicions, possible mafia target)
Day 3: devo22 (mafia target)


As for current theories, tranny is probably town, definitely not barrow, but could be parker. Seems genuinely inactive initially.


I have twice suspected kermit, both when he joined Timbo in pressuring ineedanother, then again when he pushed away from the agulati vote. I thought Timbo and Kermit were working together, which turned out to be wrong. I thought the agulati drop off was an attempt to get people to jump off, but I was wrong. Kermit was pointed at with GGG by devo, so if he is mafia, he probably isn't barrow. If he flips mafia, I will go insane.



CC, he led the agulati vote (I followed after) then jumped off when it was a runaway vote, despite still saying that he suspected agulati. This seems like an attempt to not be put in the list of those who have always voted for the lynched townie. Also, he changed his vote to Legoman based on his crusade against completely. In lego's advocating a lynch of completely, he gave opportunity for a slight gotcha in the way he explained his rationale for completely. His reasoning is obviously completely bs, but CC pounced on it without hesitation despite the result from when he pounced on agulati. It could be that CC was waiting for a chance to defend completely while watching Legoman target his fellow mafia... but the completely suspicion is light, and only made stronger with a CC mafia flip.

As for GGG, I suspected him of being mafia in targeting me. There was a post I picked up on where he seemingly purposefully switched parker with barrow, which added to the mounting suspicions. When he started to back off, and didn't really receive backup from Oling, or anyone else, I started to have doubts again. I still don't understand why GGG would fight the vote block idea so hard core, but I guess this and bizaro's support of the idea is proof that it is flawed. The initial list was mostly duds, but I think that should be expected since it was a day one list. As days go on, the lists would get better, and we would start to have more success. We would also still have info to go on in who fought for which candidates.

I have been wrong a lot, but I don't think many others have been right in the first three days. However, I get the reasoning behind my lynching, so no hard feelings.

Anyways, I think I will make more direct responses in my defence, then go to bed before mother's day festivities.

For reasons stated:


vote: CaptainCrunch

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Lets be clear I voted for Agulati because his error made it pretty apparent that he was a mobster at the time or made a massive gaff. If you go back I think I even said that. I changed my vote to Legoman in that time and said it because he made that subtle string of statements where he basically either intentionally lied or intentionally mislead his reasons for trying to put focus on a player using a radom number theory. That to me in my mind is still the behavior of a mafia person who knows who's in his group and knows that it doesn't matter if he kills another mob faction member or a villager. He's just targeting and hopes it sticks He's even still targeting basically on a random little logical basis, and he vanishes and comes back.

If you look back on my posts, all I've done is target suspected mafia, none of my reasons are random at all, I've based it up on real hints

Agulati, look at his posts and defense and tell me that wasn't at the very least highly suspicious.

Look at my targeting lego man, his screams pretty blatent mafia targeting.

Was I wrong on Agulati, absolutely a lot of us were.

Was I wrong on other villager votes, absolutely, but I clearly wasn't the first one on the band wagon, and I looked at the arguments for and agreed with them.

I haven't made a random target in this game yet in this game and my logic is certainly pro mafia targeting.

I think your logic is flawed.

In fact, on the first day when the Vig was revealed, I wasn't leading the charge to blow off that power for haveanother to kill people to prove who he was.

On Day one, I voted Rathji who seemed pretty suspicious at the time.

Day two, I pointed out two posting flaws one on Legman and one on Agulati that were extremely mafia indicative.

Day 3 I didn't lead the argument for activestick, but I voted for him because the arguments were compelling that he was mafia and I agreed with them.

In fact, I'm still convinced that Legoman is playing us, I think out of a lot of suspects, his random target, his lie about Completely, his vanishing and coming back makes him a prime mob suspect, so even though you seem to be under a lot of suspicion and flailing a bit, I'm going with my continued instinct that Lego is dirty

Vote: Lego

Originally Posted by Crazy Bacon Legs

I believe the following people most likely to be mafia:


starseed
flameswin
Baxter Renegade

Hockeyguy15
CofR


I'm still missing one, but based on voting patterns and content of posts, that's what I'm going with. I am also far from 100% on these people. I may well be wrong on one of the people on the list.

I think it's also valuable to look at one or two people who are NOT voting with the lynch pack. I think there are bound to be one or two mafia who are sleepers that the groups are holding back so there's nowhere to point fingers at. I think that's why I am off by one or two.

Now, I'm willing to go with the group this time and take out starseed. I think he is one of the highest on my list. Interestingly, I think he and flameswin may have orchestrated a little back-and-forth between one another, and I kind of think they are both on the same mafia team. Yes, I know flameswin currently has his vote cast for starseed. But the plan is likely to change that. It is also possible they are both mafia, but on opposite sides of the fence.

As to flameswin: he's a smart guy, and known for posting frequently and with insight. I don't think he's done that this game, and that's odd. He says it's because he got killed off so quickly last game, but I am not sure that rings true. I think he's been hiding in the weeds a bit to avoid attention.

I think Baxter Renegade could be on either mafia team, but I tend to think he may be on the same squad as starseed and/or flameswin. I mainly suspect him for his vote pattern, but he was also very quick to drum up support against activeStick and agulati. Then he immediately jumped on people who tried to steer away from lynching townspeople. He has also pointed the finger at Hockeyguy15, but I'm not sure if that's a false flag or they are on opposite sides.

CofR has posted quite a bit, but very little of a substantive nature, and almost nothing lately. I think he may be sort of the "noise" guy on his team. His lack of recent activity may be telling, and I can't help but wonder if he held back his vote last round because of my vote analysis.

As for Hockeyguy15, I have previously said why I am suspicious. He certainly posts a lot, but threw around a lot of accusations early in the game that helped innocent people get killed. Plus he voted all three times to lynch town. He may be on the same team as starseed, but I'm not sure. There just isn't enough information yet to detemrine who is on whose team.

Interestringly, I don't really suspect Rathji, although he also voted three times to lynch town. In reading his posts, he seems to have a thought process that makes sense for a townsperson. So although he's on my list, I don't suspect him. I hope that doesn't end up coming back to bite me.

Now I will say this, just in case the hammer should drop and I mysteriously end up dead during the night. If we lynch starseed and he is mafia, look to the other names I have listed here, and look closely at their posts. I think I may be a target now because I am getting too close to the truth.

Now here's the part where I openly taunt the mafia:

I think BOTH mafia groups may vote to off me during the night. That would be good for the town if it happened, because it means only one of us die. I have no problem being the sacrificial lamb if it gets us closer to winning as a group.

Except both sides know the other may vote for me to die tonight, so it is very possible that NEITHER side votes for me, and I survive to live another day. See what I did, mafia jerks?! I put you in a prisoner's dilemma that you can't solve because of imperfect information!! So go ahead and try to night kill me, because the other mafia will probably do the same and I'll end up stealing a kill from you for the town. Except now you're confused. What's the right move?? You don't know, do you?! BRAIN EXPLOSION!

Put THAT in your mafia pipes and smoke it!!

Oh, another thing, mafia guys. You're probably thinking "How did he name so many of us successfully? Does he have some other source of information that he is gathering evidence from?" I don't know, DOES HE?! Or is he setting himself up to be intentionally killed by the mafia to buy the town some time? Who knows?! Not me!

Think about it.

Thre very long posts.


One of them is not like the other.


Crazy Bacon Legs, why do you not vote? You put a lot of effort into that post, but don't actually vote. Was that intentional?

I have read a lot of the post leading up to mine of today, and am really leaning hard towards Starseed.

To behonest, I think we really need to make sure we hit a scumbag with this vote.

We currently have 7 votes, Starseed is dead.

I am going to take some more time to review prior to moving this closer to the hammer death blow. If after reviewing the thread (holy crap 67 pages ).

[undercoverbrother]

Holy crap, this thread is getting long and involved.

I have gone back through the thread, and I can't seem to find anything to really sway me from:

vote: Starseed

[Street Pharmacist]

I'm jotting down notes as I go through the thread since may 8th.

-GGG points out that bizaro86 used CC's list to point fingers
-GGG (known town now) votes starseed
-Undercoverbrother calls out devo22 for being mafia
-Crazy Bacon Legs posts a good summary of those who've voted for the two town lynched to that point: starseed, Aeneas, devo22, bizaro86, me, Rathji, flameswin, CofR, Baxter Renegade, HockeyGuy15. Pretty damning that there's two mafioso on that list...
-devo22 was suspicious of Lego Man
-Strombad posted incredibly strongly that ActiveStick was scum. Poor mafia strategy to go all in for one single kill. This smacks of a townie to sure of his Detective abilities. He's town in my mind
-lots of insinuation about activeStick, myself and transplant99
-Rathji joins devo22 in pointing at GGG and Kermitology being in a Mafia together. Then CC joins in too
-kermitology kind of defends devo22. "are you going to be suspicious of everyone who...." after a Mafia finger was pointed at devo22
-devo22 wants transplant99 out
-Starseed, Baxter Renegade, Rathji, HockeyGuy15 now the only ones to lynch ask the townspeople.

[kermitology]

Guys, stop posting. The hammer has been dropped.

[kermitology]

Nevermind.. I thought the 7 was the hammer.

[Lego Man]

Vote: HalifaxDrunk
Busy weekend, still going through the thread - want to contribute before hammer.

I am almost certain HD is mafia at this point.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I'm jotting down notes as I go through the thread since may 8th.

-GGG points out that bizaro86 used CC's list to point fingers
-GGG (known town now) votes starseed
-Undercoverbrother calls out devo22 for being mafia
-Crazy Bacon Legs posts a good summary of those who've voted for the two town lynched to that point: starseed, Aeneas, devo22, bizaro86, me, Rathji, flameswin, CofR, Baxter Renegade, HockeyGuy15. Pretty damning that there's two mafioso on that list...
-devo22 was suspicious of Lego Man
-Strombad posted incredibly strongly that ActiveStick was scum. Poor mafia strategy to go all in for one single kill. This smacks of a townie to sure of his Detective abilities. He's town in my mind
-lots of insinuation about activeStick, myself and transplant99
-Rathji joins devo22 in pointing at GGG and Kermitology being in a Mafia together. Then CC joins in too
-kermitology kind of defends devo22. "are you going to be suspicious of everyone who...." after a Mafia finger was pointed at devo22
-devo22 wants transplant99 out
-Starseed, Baxter Renegade, Rathji, HockeyGuy15 now the only ones to lynch ask the townspeople.

Holy crap that is all over the place

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Holy crap that is all over the place

Just trying to save people a look and gave a summary of highlights

[Lego Man]

My potential mafia list right now, in no particular order:

kermitology
CofR
Baxter Renegade
HalifaxDrunk
Street Pharmacist
Oling_Roachinen
Completely

and to a lesser extent,
DropIt
flameswin


I'm pretty busy at work right now, but I'll try to find time tonight to put reasons to these suspicions.

[Street Pharmacist]

I think at least 3/4 who lynched all three townies are scum. Starting with starseed

[starseed]

I am within range of a last minute mafia pileon, so here is my final list to look at post flip:

Baxter's posts when looked at holistically are very mafia-like. Have a look through them and see if you come to the same opinion.

CaptainCrunch is still my strongest suspicion. If he flips mafia, then I think completely should be given a hard look. (because it could be that CaptainCrunch was waiting to pounce on Lego to defend completely)

I don't know what to think about CBL. I think more flips are needed to help confirm/deny suspicions. I am leaning mafia on him.

Oling has been after me before on the same line of logic. Saying that I am suspicious because I jumped on first day list made by the only proven townie. The list has mostly proven to be a dud, but how could I have known if it was mafia-free even if I was in one of the mafia groups? (which cannot see half the mafia) but he saw an opportunity to target me, and pounced. That said, his other posts seem mostly townish to me, and GGG also targeted me, so he is lower on the suspect list.

Yesterday's pileon: I think the mafia saw an opportunity to pileon with the aS vote, CC, completely, and flameswin seem to arouse suspicion from that. Maybe not all three, but probably a couple.

The score is 14-6 now, and could be 11-6 tomorrow. If that happens, the ratio is more than 1:3 mafia, which means that there will be a lot of bad noise out there, even moreso than now. Look to past posts, which totally change the feel of their motives when you know that certain players that they are discussing with, and talking about, are now confirmed town or mafia. There is no need to completely rely on lists like CBL's. Mafia would be smart to jump off while the train is rolling (like CC), or avoid it altogether while we pick ourselves out for them.

I will be around for a while more to respond, but later this evening I will be hitting the road for a few hours.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Just trying to save people a look and gave a summary of highlights

Sorry wasn't being rude, just really a comment on the game in general.

[Lego Man]

Originally Posted by starseed

I am within range of a last minute mafia pileon, so here is my final list to look at post flip:

Baxter's posts when looked at holistically are very mafia-like. Have a look through them and see if you come to the same opinion.

CaptainCrunch is still my strongest suspicion. If he flips mafia, then I think completely should be given a hard look. (because it could be that CaptainCrunch was waiting to pounce on Lego to defend completely)

I don't know what to think about CBL. I think more flips are needed to help confirm/deny suspicions. I am leaning mafia on him.

Oling has been after me before on the same line of logic. Saying that I am suspicious because I jumped on first day list made by the only proven townie. The list has mostly proven to be a dud, but how could I have known if it was mafia-free even if I was in one of the mafia groups? (which cannot see half the mafia) but he saw an opportunity to target me, and pounced. That said, his other posts seem mostly townish to me, and GGG also targeted me, so he is lower on the suspect list.

Yesterday's pileon: I think the mafia saw an opportunity to pileon with the aS vote, CC, completely, and flameswin seem to arouse suspicion from that. Maybe not all three, but probably a couple.

The score is 14-6 now, and could be 11-6 tomorrow. If that happens, the ratio is more than 1:3 mafia, which means that there will be a lot of bad noise out there, even moreso than now. Look to past posts, which totally change the feel of their motives when you know that certain players that they are discussing with, and talking about, are now confirmed town or mafia. There is no need to completely rely on lists like CBL's. Mafia would be smart to jump off while the train is rolling (like CC), or avoid it altogether while we pick ourselves out for them.

I will be around for a while more to respond, but later this evening I will be hitting the road for a few hours.

CaptainCrunch seems to be entirely sidetracked and focusing on the wrong things all game. He's too clueless to be Mafia. That is my opinion at least.