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Originally Posted by Goriders
I think off season could prove to be a very interesting one for the Flames. It'll spell out thier intended path going forward now that Feaster's gone and Burke and Treliving are at the helm.
Treliving is definitely not inheriting the feces sandwich that Feaster inherited when he came on (I think he did a great job of cleaning some of it up). But he's still going to have a few big issues to deal with.
1. His boss, and by the sounds of it he wants a bigger team. A lot of our line-up (Cammalleri, Hudler, Byron, Backlund, Brodie, Russell) and almost all of our most promising prospects (Granlund, Gaudreau, Baertschi, Billins) are smaller, less physical guys.
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I don't think Backlund or Brodie have a size issue. Byron might be small, but he plays big, much bigger than his size. At the very least he's a 13th forward because of his versatility and playing in any situation, not to mention his top end speed. Cammy is likely gone, Hudler is a high skill play maker that will likely be replaced by one of our prospects like Gaudreau, Baertschi, or possibly Granlund once they are NHL ready. Until then he stays, as he is also a decent cap hit to keep us near the floor.
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Not sure how you quickly address this without getting rid of a few of these promising players. I'm guessing the untouchables are Brodie and Gaudreau unless there's an offer that can't be refused. Cammalleri leaving would help with this issue but create another.
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There will undoubtedly be a player or two traded to improve the NHL team in the short term, but we aren't close enough to be moving young top 6 talent yet since we are woefully short on top 6 NHL players. My guess is we will see something near the trade deadline if there's an opportunity to get a big NHL ready piece that's due for a raise (RFA or young UFA), but I don't see it happening in the off-season.
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Personnally after watching the second half of the year I'm less concerned about this. The Flames played with the league's best teams and were competitive by outworking them. They held thier own physically. And if they can find a way to get guys like Wotherspoon, Breen, Poirier, Ferland, Arnold ect into the line-up I think we'll be okay in terms of size.
2. Salary Cap floor. This is the bigger issue I see. If Cammalleri doesn't come back and we let Butler and Galiardi go (my guess) we'll be around the $44 million dollar level for cap hit. If the floor goes to $51 mill we might have an issue getting there. There are a few free agents who could be getting raised if they're brought back (Colbourne, Byron, Westgarth, Bouma, Breen, Ortio). But probably not $7 mill worth.
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That's 6 players to qualify (although I think Breen is non-tendered or AHL deal at best), so it wouldn't be unthinkable to be close to $7 million especially when Byron and Colborne (no "u") are due to make more than a million each. That's also not taking into consideration that they are likely to get at least 1-2 veteran UFAs this summer to stabilize the roster of young kids. I'm betting at least 1-2 contracts of 3-4 million will help us get to the floor without any difficulty. That's also barring a major trade for a salary dump (Cam Ward?).
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I think resigning Cammelleri is going to be one of the priorities for many reasons. He's probably our best pure scorer, and he's a good role model for younger guys. Plus he eliminates the cap issue. I also don't see anyone on the market who's comparible. Which is probably why he'll be gone unless they overpay him.
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Yes, we lose a lot of pure goal scoring without Cammy in the lineup, so I agree that's a real concern, and his hot streak was one of the reasons we won so many games down the stretch. It could legitimately be an issue and I'm not sure you can address it without overpaying an UFA, or just doing some proper development of the young prospects and being patient. This is also why those "smaller" guys aren't going anywhere until we see where they top out.
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My big concern on this point is that we have a handful of young guys who I think need time on the big league team to keep developing (Reinhart, Byron, Wotherspoon, Billins, Ortio). I'm hoping we don't start backfilling our line-up with overpaid washed up has beens like we have for the last decade. That's specifically why we're drafting 4th this year.
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Byron got plenty of time this year as he forced his way into the lineup. Reinhart will get the same treatment as will Ortio. Personally, I believe they could use some more seasoning in the AHL as they both looked a little overmatched at times, but were definitely close. Wotherspoon definitely could use another season in the minors, so no rushing him unless he makes it a very hard decision in camp, but even then, patience. Billins will likely not be a long term option at the NHL level, so don't worry about him getting time.
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We're at the bottom right now, I personally think we'd be better off running with our drafted guys and developing them rather than the other option mentioned above. The problem with this is that they don't make enough to get us to the cap floor.
So it'll be very interesting to see what Mr. Treliving and Burke have in store for the franchise. Hope they still re-sign guys like Byron even though he's small. He does nothing but good things when he's on the ice. Personally I hope Butler's back as well. Doubt Galiardi's back.
Stay tuned.
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The issues you brought up are size, cap floor, top 6 forwards, and prospect development. Here are the realistic responses to those.
Size: Not hard to fill on the bottom 6, so look for more of those kind of signings in the off-season, particularly if they can pot a few goals and play a physical (read as truculent) game. It becomes very hard to find size in the top 6, so you likely have to draft or trade for it by giving up some good prospects in return. As long as the value is close I don't mind doing that, but you better be sure that you're getting the guy you want, and they rarely are available through trade. Most likely a draft and development route for a top six guy with size.
Cap Floor: Not sure what the floor is yet, but it won't be that hard to get there unless we are trading guys like Wideman, Hudler, D. Jones etc., and I don't think we have enough guys ready for primetime to make those kind of choices yet. Probably fill in the few gaps we have with a few veteran UFAs which we overpay a little (like we did with Hudler and Wideman).
Top 6 Forwards: Not a lot to do but continue to develop what we have and see where the chips fall. It might be another year or two until we see the fruits of our drafting and maybe start making some trades to get better. In the meantime, guys like Vrbata, Moulson, Setoguchi are the only options to fill the gaps. IMHO, our top 6 is passable for next year if it looked something like this.
Hudler-Backlund-Vrbata
Gaudreau (substitute any of Glencross, Granlund, Reinhart, Baertschi depending on camp)-Monahan-Colborne
Glencross-Stajan-D. Jones
Bouma-Knight-McGrattan
Byron
Not going to scare a lot of teams, but if Monahan continues his development along with Colborne, and Gaudreau shows any signs of being NHL ready, that could easily become the top line of the team going forward and the Backlund line would be more of a 2nd line.
Basically, no easy answer to this question, otherwise the rebuild would go faster.
Prospect Development: Do the same thing we are doing now; let prospects force their way into the lineup before getting regular time. Ward is doing good things on the farm with Ftorek. Let them do their job and they will come when they are ready. Nothing else to say about it.
Treliving's Path Forward
