CP Mafia 2 - Town Square Showdown - Game Over

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Agreed. All that "contributing" at the beginning just muddied the water, maybe on purpose. Get enough people on the defensive and everyone looks suspicious

And he rallied the masses against agulati.

[CaptainCrunch]

I'm surprised I'm alive, interesting night kills though

I still have suspicions on Lego because his statement was just weird and it seemed like he was working hard to shift suspicion.

Halifax Drunk, its funny that the last two people that he's been in dispute with ended up night killed.

HS15 Just because he was absolutely throwing accusations out on day one.

I'm not the king of vote trends or anything, but I feel bad about Agulati, but man his statement was so suspicious.

[ineedanother]

Originally Posted by GGG

Bizaro was in favour vocally of following Ineedanothers choices as confirmed town.
Bizaro wanted to target someone inactive during the Vig reveal
Starseed was very supportive of following indeed
Starseed was never on my list, CCs list, or Ineeds lists.


Vote: Starseed

I think we should look at it in the other direction. The Barrow mafia offed bizaro86, so does that mean his ideas were pointing at Barrow mafia members? Or am I thinking too much. The Parker mafia offed dsavillian, did he have any accusations aimed at anyone? Or did they just want to off a most likely townie.

[ineedanother]

Sorry missed adding this. Is there any opposite points of view between dsavillian and bizaro86, as that might help us target in on Parker mafia members.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by ineedanother

I think we should look at it in the other direction. The Barrow mafia offed bizaro86, so does that mean his ideas were pointing at Barrow mafia members? Or am I thinking too much. The Parker mafia offed dsavillian, did he have any accusations aimed at anyone? Or did they just want to off a most likely townie.

There's got to be strategy beyond picking sides involved. Each mafia knows who they are, and need to kill the other one, so what difference does it make whether the person is town or mafia?

I think they take down who they feel is the most dangerous ie. Onto something

[strombad]

Ok, let's try this again:
Vote: Activestick

Somebody? Anybody? I don't feel like I need to give my reasons AGAIN, but certainly it's got to be time.

[activeStick]

Well at least we got a Mafia overnight! strombad - you really need to give it up...

[strombad]

Why would I give something up I'm so sure on? That seems like idiocy to me. I'm going to continue gunning for you until I'm gone.

Puts you in between a rock and a hard place though doesn't it? You can't exactly night lynch me, or it looks like I was right, but you've always got to be weary of people jumping on board the train.

Now is the time to get rid of activestick, it's just useless contribution after useless contribution. He's clearly not helping anyone if he's a townie, and it's much more likely that he's mafia just "playing it cool."

Let's do this.

[Crazy Bacon Legs]

Good. We have some patterns now.

WARNING: actual analysis below!!!

Two townspeople have been lynched so far, and the tally for who voted in favour of those lynchings is as follows:

hmmhmmcamo:

ineedanother, starseed, Aeneas, devo22, GP_Matt, bizaro86, Street Pharmacist, Rathji, kermitology, flameswin, CofR, Baxter Renegade, Hockeyguy15, GGG, Crazy Bacon Legs

agulati:

starseed, Hockeyguy15, Aeneas, devo22, DropIt, bizaro86, CofR, HalifaxDrunk, Baxter Renegade, Rathji, Completely, transplant99, flameswin, Street Pharmacist, activeStick

It makes sense that several people accidentally vote for an innocent person each round (I did, and immediately said "oops" afterwards). It is less likely that someone innocently votes both times for a townsperson, however.

The people who voted both times to kill an innocent townsperson are:

starseed, Aeneas, devo22, bizaro86, Street pharmacist, Rathji, flameswin, CofR, Baxter Renegade, Hockeyguy15

That's my list of prime suspects. Mafia are far more likely to vote for a townsperson (given that they know 3 more people who are mafia, as well as themselves.) Whether they are spurring the vote against a townie or jumping on the bandwagon isn't really clear to me yet, but it makes a whole lot of sense for mafia to have voted twice for people who ended up being innocent townies.

Of note is the fact that bizaro86 voted this way both times, and turned out to be the only confirmed mafia. Obviously, at least two people in my suspect list genuinely voted that way out of coincidence. I would suggest it is a very high likelihood that most of the other eight were mafia.

At this time, I am very much leaning toward Hockeyguy15. He was the one to jump on agulati for his comment about night kills (which, as I suggested, was just poor wording). And he jumped on fast, instigating the pile of votes against agulati.

(Incidentally, I also kind of suspect Street pharmacist, but if he's mafia I think he is most likely a member of the mafia opposite Hockeyguy15. They are both on the dual voting list, but were calling each other out early in the game. Or they were putting on a show to deflect attention.)

I think this is the best we have to go on at the moment. I have not yet decided which one of those to vote for this round, but I guarantee you it will be someone from that list.

[starseed]

I think this finally gives us something solid to work with.

With bizaro targeting HD, I think we can safely assume he isn't in the first mafia faction, but could still be in the second. However, I get the feeling that each side would look for the cop/doctor or the other mafia rather than target people that they think are a threat. So I think HD drops off my radar.

I think anyone who dropped off the agulati lynch bandwagon should be lower priority right now. I will also agree that CBL's shortlist of people who voted twice to lynch a known townie is something positive to work off of. (it wont have all the mafia, but probably a good number)

Ill look more later today as to who on that list I think should be put in the hot seat.

As for my being supportive of the ineedanother vote block idea - I think it makes sense going forward if ineedanother is more active, which I dont think he was much during the last day. I think today our best bet is to get ineedanother to pick from a logical list of candidates. Even though it failed on day one, it's still good strategy going forward. This is my first time playing mafia, so maybe it is known to be a bad strategy, but it just makes sense to me.

[devo22]

awesome! Didn't expect mafia crossfire that early. Will have to go back and re-read bizaro86's posts. That's the best lead we've got so far, and we still haven't lost the doctor, the cop and the roleblocker. That night really improved our chances IMO.

Will do some re-reading tonight after work. Right now, I'm most suspicious of Lego Man. Other guys that are suspicious to me are transplant99, strombad, starseed and HalifaxDrunk. Will also take a closer look on the late unvote bandwagon on day 2, that seemed fishy to me.

[Rathji]

Good news on the night kill flip, that's for sure.

I am really surprised about agulati though, as a townie I really expected him to give something... anything in his last posts to try and help the town. When he essentially gave us all the bird, that is what sold me on him being mafia.

I have some thoughts on mafia that I will review the thread and see if I can find multiple confirmations of before I bring to the town. Headed to work now, so likely won't be until lunch.

[Aeneas]

Now we are getting somewhere. One mafia dead and patterns may be emerging.
I like CBL analysis. Yes, there will be several mafia on that list. Of course I am not one, so that shortens it a little.

I think both factions will be careful to get 2-3 members onto a runaway vote, but not all.
I will once again vote with the town on the most likely target, just wait for more mud to be thrown and defenses made.

[Rathji]

forgot to add, glad dsavillian flipped town as well, because he had done a couple things which were beginning to have me question him, but it was really throwing me for a loop because there were fairly clear signs that he was town to me. ie the call out on GP_Matt about his less than stellar recommendation to reveal dr/cop.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by ineedanother

I think we should look at it in the other direction. The Barrow mafia offed bizaro86, so does that mean his ideas were pointing at Barrow mafia members? Or am I thinking too much. The Parker mafia offed dsavillian, did he have any accusations aimed at anyone? Or did they just want to off a most likely townie.

I thought about that. This is a wine in front of me situation, does barrow kill bizaro because he is targeting barrow members or does barrow kill him because he isnt targeting barrow members? You can run the logic train however you want and get either answer. In my scroll through bizaros posts and it wasnt that thourough I noticed his accusations were mainly to follow someone elses list of names.

My thought though is that Bizaro was unlikely to push voting for lists with his peoples names on it. With only 4 members that is a very high risk strategy. With one mafia group and 8 members you can afford to sacrifice one of your own but with only 4 members and another group killing I think that they need to protect themselves as much as possibe.

This is why I would narrow down the list of Barrow suspects to people not on one of the 3 lists bizaro was in favour of voting for. Were there any other posters who always were in favour of voting somone off of another persons suspect list?

[Aeneas]

I hope your last question is rhetorical, GGG. 1000 posts is alot of looking.

[Hockeyguy15]

First off sorry agulati, I really thought you were mafia. I didn't vote for him because of the slip up, I voted for him because his explaination did not make sense.

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Well, one mafia down, 7 to go. I wish there wasn't so much crap to wade through in the first two days. Safe to probably call Kermitology a townie as he didn't think agulati was scum. Scum would've been happy to pile on. I need to go back and see what bizaro86 said and what others said about him. That's the best bit of news so far.

Did anyone else come to agulati's defense?

Can you explain why kermit is safe to call town? Just because he said he was weary of the amount of votes agulati had doesn't mean he is town. Yes it's something to keep in mind but in no way should it clear him either.

Originally Posted by kermitology

Also, any of you #######s who question or point fingers at me.. You're scum!

Really? So if I still have suspicion of you I am mafia?

Originally Posted by kermitology

And he rallied the masses against agulati.

I questioned him on his post, and then I said why I didn't think his explaination after the fact made sense. I thought that's how this game worked?

Originally Posted by Crazy Bacon Legs

Good. We have some patterns now.

WARNING: actual analysis below!!!

Two townspeople have been lynched so far, and the tally for who voted in favour of those lynchings is as follows:

hmmhmmcamo:

ineedanother, starseed, Aeneas, devo22, GP_Matt, bizaro86, Street Pharmacist, Rathji, kermitology, flameswin, CofR, Baxter Renegade, Hockeyguy15, GGG, Crazy Bacon Legs

agulati:

starseed, Hockeyguy15, Aeneas, devo22, DropIt, bizaro86, CofR, HalifaxDrunk, Baxter Renegade, Rathji, Completely, transplant99, flameswin, Street Pharmacist, activeStick

It makes sense that several people accidentally vote for an innocent person each round (I did, and immediately said "oops" afterwards). It is less likely that someone innocently votes both times for a townsperson, however.

The people who voted both times to kill an innocent townsperson are:

starseed, Aeneas, devo22, bizaro86, Street pharmacist, Rathji, flameswin, CofR, Baxter Renegade, Hockeyguy15

That's my list of prime suspects. Mafia are far more likely to vote for a townsperson (given that they know 3 more people who are mafia, as well as themselves.) Whether they are spurring the vote against a townie or jumping on the bandwagon isn't really clear to me yet, but it makes a whole lot of sense for mafia to have voted twice for people who ended up being innocent townies.

Of note is the fact that bizaro86 voted this way both times, and turned out to be the only confirmed mafia. Obviously, at least two people in my suspect list genuinely voted that way out of coincidence. I would suggest it is a very high likelihood that most of the other eight were mafia.

At this time, I am very much leaning toward Hockeyguy15. He was the one to jump on agulati for his comment about night kills (which, as I suggested, was just poor wording). And he jumped on fast, instigating the pile of votes against agulati.

(Incidentally, I also kind of suspect Street pharmacist, but if he's mafia I think he is most likely a member of the mafia opposite Hockeyguy15. They are both on the dual voting list, but were calling each other out early in the game. Or they were putting on a show to deflect attention.)

I think this is the best we have to go on at the moment. I have not yet decided which one of those to vote for this round, but I guarantee you it will be someone from that list.

The first vote we agreed to vote hmmhmmcamo because that was ineedanothers choice. If that, along with noticing an oddity in a post makes me guilty then by all means vote for me.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I would again be comfortable voting out based on inactivity, for the same reason as last time. If you aren't contributing, you're a liability.

I feel it's more likely that this time the mafia is just trying to blend in and play it like it's early and post nothing but noise. I know I will probably make myself a mafia night kill target with this but I am frustrated with people wanting to go full on random.

There are a bunch of posters who have hardly any activity, and there are a few who seem to be more active but not contributing. It could be that they are new and feeling out the process, but they could also just be trying to fly under the radar.

I feel that kermit isn't really adding much with his posts.
bizaro is offering some insight but not full out hunting mafia
ineedanother is posting but not adding much
Timbo has 3 posts but they seem off to me
SP has been posting, but not contributing

There are also a few posters who mention mafia numbers and potential strategy/mind sets with a very low post count.

So I posted this pretty early on. Timbo and ineedanother are town, bizaro is mafia.

The only 2 people left are SP and kermit, both of which are on me today. Coincidence?

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by kermitology

Also, any of you #######s who question or point fingers at me.. You're scum!

Yeah, sorry man, I was one of those. In my defense though, I did say if Agulati turns up town then you'd likely be town, too.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

With most of today's focus being agulati focused, his flip will give us the most info, IMO. Plus, if he flips mafia, only a few people didn't vote for him, which would give us a short list of potentials.

One more Bizaro list. This post is right before the card flip yesterday. Again Bizaro pushes for targeting a group of people. So if you look at the people who didn't vote for Agulati they are unlikely to be Barrow. Definately can't eliminate them from being Parker.