Toronto Raptors 2013/14 Season

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think people are overvaluing DeRozan just a little. Not that he's bad player at all, but he's not a superstar and I'm not sure he will ever become one. For instance...

Player A at age 24: 24.6 PPG, 42% FG, 41% 3PT, 87% FT, 38 MPG
Player B at age 24: 25.8 PPG, 45% FG, 42% 3PT, 88% FT, 36 MPG
Player C at age 24: 22.7 PPG, 43% FG, 30% 3PT, 82% FT, 38 MPG

Player A is Kevin Martin, Player B is Danny Granger and Player C is DeMar DeRozan. Now I strongly suspect no one considers either of the first two players to be a superstar. DeMar can absolutely be a key compenent to a title contender, he just can't be the focus. DeRozan's jump this year over previous years is almost entirely based on the massive jump in free throw attempts per game (from a previous high of 5.3 to 8). And interstingly enough, Martin and Granger both saw similar jumps in FTA in their 24 year old seasons (7.1 to 9.5 for Martin; 4.7 to 6.9 for Granger)

Interesting choice of comparisons. You picked two players who improved until around the age of 24 and then suffered knee or ankle injuries that completely altered the course of their career and caused them to miss most of their next couple seasons. I'd argue that both Martin and Granger could have been multiple all-stars and, on the right teams, key parts of championship contenders, had they not sustained huge injuries during their primes.

[Imported_Aussie]

Originally Posted by darklord700

DD is a tweeter, he's good at a lot of the areas of the game, shooting, driving, rebounding but excels at none. That's his problem.

He's stock might not be any higher that it is now and there should be takers like James Dolan.

Knicks don't make a ton of sense though - they have traded so many 1sts they have none to offer in a trade. It would need to be at least a 3 way deal, where some team wants Chandler enough to give a pick, which goes to Toronto, but I can't think of a scenario that works there.
Maybe if a team goes after Carmelo, Knicks could flip some of those assets to get DeRozan, and retool on the fly - if they feel Melo will go.
A pipe-dream would be to find a way to get Chandler Parsons out of Houston - very underrated guy, and if they go after Melo, like they could, he could be expendable. If the Raptors could turn DeRozan into Parsons, Shumpert and a salary dump, that might be intriguing

[kmart]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think people are overvaluing DeRozan just a little. Not that he's bad player at all, but he's not a superstar and I'm not sure he will ever become one. For instance...

Player A at age 24: 24.6 PPG, 42% FG, 41% 3PT, 87% FT, 38 MPG
Player B at age 24: 25.8 PPG, 45% FG, 42% 3PT, 88% FT, 36 MPG
Player C at age 24: 22.7 PPG, 43% FG, 30% 3PT, 82% FT, 38 MPG

Player A is Kevin Martin, Player B is Danny Granger and Player C is DeMar DeRozan. Now I strongly suspect no one considers either of the first two players to be a superstar. DeMar can absolutely be a key compenent to a title contender, he just can't be the focus. DeRozan's jump this year over previous years is almost entirely based on the massive jump in free throw attempts per game (from a previous high of 5.3 to 8). And interstingly enough, Martin and Granger both saw similar jumps in FTA in their 24 year old seasons (7.1 to 9.5 for Martin; 4.7 to 6.9 for Granger)

I guess I'm just really, really high on Jonas. I honestly believe he can be a top 3 center in a few years with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. I think he needs to be the focal point of the offense. With two lower percentage, higher volume shooters in Lowry and DeRozan, you simply have too much redundancy and not enough touches for Jonas. I think Lowry is more valuable than DeMar, and I'm basically thinking sell high now on DeRozan and maximize the return.

Nobody said he was a superstar, but at 24 he's already a one time all-star on this team and he's still improving. Theres only six guys that have 20+ points, 4+ rebounds, and 4+ assists. Lebron, Durant, Love, Curry, Harden, and DeRozan. He is in pretty good standing in this league. Surround him with the right pieces I think this team could be contending for the conference finals in 2-3 years time.

The question is are you going to get value for Demar? I don't think so. Trading him for a draft pick would set this organization back another 4-5 years. Trading him for a guy like Curry or Harden would mean that we are going to be adding a lot more assets. Trading him for an older star, well I don't know why we'd do that.

As for the comparison to Granger and Martin, I think another thing to consider is that they did it on pretty terrible team. Which means the offence was pretty much run through them. As soon as they got teams wuth talent (winning talent) Martin was a 14 PPG shooter for the Thunder and Granger was a role player for the Pacers/Clippers.

As far efficiency, Demar goes to the line quite a bit and Lowry shoots a lot of 3's which does effect his FG%. Val will fit in perfectly fine with this group. If you looks at the Clippers they have 3 guys who throw up 13+ shots a game. The Raptors only have 2. If Val does improve (which he supposedly working with Hakeem Olajuwon this summer) he will get his touches. I think the reason he didn't get as many touches this playoff season was because of his turnovers, cut that back he'll be a future all-star.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I hate having to agree with moon (may he be banned in peace), but the NBA is what it is, you need a superstar to win the title. Since the beginning of the David Stern era, there was exactly 1 team who won a title without a superstar, the 2004 Pistons. And to expand it to an even more absurd level, the 2004 Pistons are the only champs to do so with a top 40 all-time player (I guess you can argue Isiah Thomas, Paul Pierce, Dirk and Dwayne Wade, but then its top 50 or 60, as if that matters). David Stern made the decision to make the NBA about stars, and this is the system we know have.

Maybe the Adam Silver era will be different, but I doubt it. The game is ruled by superstars. It really, really sucks its gotta be this way, but putting together a team of really good players just doesn't seem to work. You gotta have that 1 guy it seems. Can DeMar get there? Not without substantially improving his shooting and shot selection. Getting more FTA per game than LeBron is a good start though.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Maybe the Adam Silver era will be different, but I doubt it. The game is ruled by superstars.

Because superstars are underpaid cheap labour in the NBA. LBJ and Durant's fair market values are a couple time the salaries they actually make.

Someone said remove the cap will make the league more competitive. I agreed. If having an LBJ or Durant is going to eat up 90% of your cap room, you can only surround superstars with scrubs and see how well your team will fare.

Other than superstars, you'll need underpaid rookies like Lillard. You can't build a team with everyone being fairly paid, Uriji understands this for sure.

[kmart]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I hate having to agree with moon (may he be banned in peace), but the NBA is what it is, you need a superstar to win the title. Since the beginning of the David Stern era, there was exactly 1 team who won a title without a superstar, the 2004 Pistons. And to expand it to an even more absurd level, the 2004 Pistons are the only champs to do so with a top 40 all-time player (I guess you can argue Isiah Thomas, Paul Pierce, Dirk and Dwayne Wade, but then its top 50 or 60, as if that matters). David Stern made the decision to make the NBA about stars, and this is the system we know have.

Maybe the Adam Silver era will be different, but I doubt it. The game is ruled by superstars. It really, really sucks its gotta be this way, but putting together a team of really good players just doesn't seem to work. You gotta have that 1 guy it seems. Can DeMar get there? Not without substantially improving his shooting and shot selection. Getting more FTA per game than LeBron is a good start though.

My definition of superstar might be different, but I'll say you need a collection of all-stars/previous all-stars to win. Demar is even starting to get star treatment from the refs some of the calls that he got were atrocious calls. I just doubt that you can get a superstar for Demar not unless you're giving up a lot more. Trading for draft picks is an awful idea considering that the top 6 in this draft aren't even that great.

If you could get a superstar for Demar without overpaying, by all means you should accept the offer. But in the NBA the team that gets the best player usually wins the deal and I feel if we do ship Demar anywhere we will not be getting a talent that contributes similar to him in return.

[OzSome]

No superstar player(s) wants to play in Toronto so the Raptors has to settle with signing aging former superstar or just an average Joe veteran player or young player who just want to get a chance to be starter. So pretty much the only option the Raptors have is to develop their young players to become above average player. Kyle Lowry is one of those examples of a young player who just want to prove he can be a starting PG in the NBA. Derozan, Ross and JV are the sample of developing their young guys. Then you have guys like Amir, Patterson, Fields, Vasquez who are just an average players. So it doesn't make any sense to trade Derozan who finally proven he can play well in the NBA. I would rather have 2 - 3 options (Derozan, Lowry or JV) than just one (JV). I still think DD can still improve more than his improvement this season.

[St. Pats]

I haven't really changed my opinion from the start of the season. This group isn't going anywhere without significant changes. Sure it was nice to watch some playoff BB but tanking would have brought another very good talent into the mix.

They have to now invest a min. of 10 million in Lowry. So their options for next year are very limited. So it's the old organic growth argument. There will be some no doubt with young players but enough to move them from a middle of the road team? Doubt it.

But might as well just enjoy them being first round playoff fodder. Heck they might even win a first round and get to a 2nd round. So if the goal isn't to win the championship then hey they can be alright.

I don't think they even have the flexibility to improve the team. Unless MU can pull a few rabbits out of the hat. My only hopes for the team as far as being a contender are :

1. MU turns out to be a real guru.
2. They decide to become a luxury tax team and add some bigtime talent.

[darklord700]

Lowry's excellent play in the playoff might be contract year driven. Good as he was in the playoff, I'm afraid he has peaked. $10M per is a lot of dough for a borderline all star.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by St. Pats

I don't think they even have the flexibility to improve the team. Unless MU can pull a few rabbits out of the hat.

This summer, they have little to no flexibility, assuming they're intending to keep Lowry. But they've got lots of flexibility for the summer of 2015, when there's a far better FA class. Let's say they resign Lowry, Vasquez, and Patterson, for around $20 million total. Add in DeRozan, Ross, and JV, two first-rounders (this years and next years). If they can get rid of Novak without taking on additional salary, they'll have 8 rotation players under contract for about $40 million, plus roughly $20 million in cap space, enough to be in the market for any FA. From that point onward, they'll need to go into the tax to keep the team together.

Originally Posted by darklord700

Lowry's excellent play in the playoff might be contract year driven. Good as he was in the playoff, I'm afraid he has peaked. $10M per is a lot of dough for a borderline all star.

$10 million is a reasonable value for a borderline all-star. A salary of $10 million would put Lowry just inside the top 60, and I'd certainly argue that Lowry is one of the top 60 players in the league. There would be very few non-rookie-contract all-stars making less than him. I believe Millsap, Curry, and DeRozan were the only non-rookie-contract all-stars making less than $11 million this year. Of the 50 players making $11 million or more, only 15 of them were all-stars this year.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by fleury

That's just an awful roster to field, but I don't mind it given the possible tank for the next couple seasons.

Originally Posted by St. Pats

Love it. Just flush them down the toilet. Casey, Lowry , Amir , DD. move any of them and just kick Casey as hard in the arse as possible. That might jar his brain and help in his next career.

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I went to bed and the Raptors were up by 27 points. I wake up and they lost by 9. Outscored 42-15 in the 4th quarter. With that it should officially be time to fire Casey and begin the tanking for that top 3 pick. Mediocrity is pointless so tank away because this roster isn't built to do anything at all and Casey is a career assistant. Masai has some mess to clean up.

Originally Posted by octothorp

Yeah, it sucks that the Nets and Knicks are soooo bare on prospects and picks, because otherwise a trade with them would be great: kills three birds with one stone tank-wise: hurt your own performance, get assets for the future, and help to ensure that those teams won't continue to suck and get ahead of you in the draft.

Originally Posted by darklord700

We should trade Ujiri away so we can really start tanking.

Originally Posted by moon

Hopefully Ujiri isn't fooled by this and still moves out the deadweight.

This is still a horrible team and as tough as it is to see them tanking enough to get a top pick they still need to get rid of as many pieces as possible and try to get something for the future.

This team is lightyears away from contending and even in the pathetic East are at best the 6th best team and likely 12th at best if in the West.

From around a year ago. Amazing how much it's changed in a year. Almost all of us were not thinking this now were we?