Ukraine Presidential Crackdown Violence. Russia Invades Ukraine

[undercoverbrother]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/50-c...land-1.2629849

Prime Minister Stephen Harper says Canada will send soldiers to Poland to take part in NATO exercises amid growing concerns about Russian aggression toward Ukraine.
Harper made the announcement during a press conference in London, Ont., on Friday.
"The Putin regime's persistent military aggression and its ongoing illegal occupation of Crimea and other parts of Ukraine threaten the stability and security of central and Eastern Europe," Harper said.

Approximately 50 troops from the 3rd Canadian Division based in Edmonton will depart Friday to take part in Exercise Orzel Alert in Swidwin, Poland, next week.
The soldiers will "conduct training in parachuting, airborne operations and infantry skills alongside Polish and American counterparts in this United States-led exercise with a view to enhancing Alliance interoperability and readiness," according to a release from the prime minister's office on Friday.

Good, our troops are smart, well trained and experienced. They will do a good job of training Polish troops, which from my work experience are piss poor

[CaptainCrunch]

If we've overt sent troops over to help exercise, I'm wondering what special forces components from Canada are over there coordinating and working with NATO Special Forces Command?

JTF-2 has a funny way of showing up in a lot of background shots.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

JTF-2 has a funny way of showing up in a lot of background shots.

Not the ones that do well on cam and concealment............

[CaptainCrunch]

I can totally see that conversation

Some general

"Ok Mr Prime Minister, we've come to an agreement we're going to send elements of the 3rd division to Poland to participate in an excercise to show Putin we're serious"

Harper slowly turns in his chair as he strokes a cat.

"Excellent general, we can send in JTF-2 to help the Polish out as well.

The general nods his head

"Yes si . . . "

Harper starts bouncing in his chair the cat runs screaming into the corner, a lighning storm starts gathering over parliment hill.

"Or we can send Task Force Arrowhead, that'd be totally wizard"

The general looks around concerned as Harper's eyes take a red glow.

"Sir as far as we know we don't need our whole special forces command over there."

Harpers voice drops to a sinister croack

"Wipe them out, all of them"

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Ducay

I think worst case is the skirmishes intensify with pro-Russian militia being supplied more firepower from Moscow, resulting in a more war like situation. But I think we're at a good point now with Ukraining forces finally pushing back, which they are well entitled to do.

I can't see Russia and China turning this into a war, the world economy is too intertwined. China would immediately lose like 60% of its market and economy would crash without foreign cash flowing in.

"Clearly combatants are oppressed pro-Russian villagers who just happen to have training in communications discipline, military tactics and irregular warfare. Those missile launchers that were used to shoot down the Ukrainian helicopters must have been bought by concerned citizens off Ebay." -Kremlin

What I don't get is why the hell Western news agencies and people are still calling these pro-Russian forces when the core of the leadership are clearly Russian special forces, either GRU or Spetznaz who are taking their orders from the Kremlin, with some turncoats sprinkled in? It continues giving Russia deniability for their actions. Even if they are local militias, these are serving Russian interests should be considered Russian irregular forces at this point.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

What I don't get is why the hell Western news agencies and people are still calling these pro-Russian forces when the core of the leadership are clearly Russian special forces, either GRU or Spetznaz who are taking their orders from the Kremlin, with some turncoats sprinkled in? It continues giving Russia deniability for their actions. Even if they are local militias, these are serving Russian interests should be considered Russian irregular forces at this point.

This question may have nothing to do with politics and simply be a matter of conveying information. When you read a phrase like "Russian forces are fighting in Slavyansk", it reads like there is an actual Russian army officially invaded the city. It may confuse readers. The term "pro-Russian" does not rule out the possibility of them reporting to Kremlin, however there is still a difference between what is happening there and Russian forced actually invading, like in Abkhazia.

[Zulu29]

Can't find the article but read that dozens of "pro-Russian forces" were killed when a building they were occupying was firebombed. The other shoe may have just dropped. Would not surprise me at all if this gives Putin the evidence he needs to send in reg force Russians.

[jofillips]

It got my attention when i heard the 3rd Canadian Division was being sent in, however 50 men doesn't really count as a divisional-sized force....even the entire Canadian army couldn't fill one division i would of thought....
Why wasn't a regiment used or is it purely a training mission?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by jofillips

It got my attention when i heard the 3rd Canadian Division was being sent in, however 50 men doesn't really count as a divisional-sized force....even the entire Canadian army couldn't fill one division i would of thought....
Why wasn't a regiment used or is it purely a training mission?

traditionally, a division is 10k-15k,

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

The US will give Germany the green light to build up its military to a level not seen since the Third Reich. History has taught us that nothing scares the Russians more than a powerful German army.

Out of curiosity, does Germany have a "defence force only" kind of constitution like Japan where it basically forbids them to have a large military?

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Out of curiosity, does Germany have a "defence force only" kind of constitution like Japan where it basically forbids them to have a large military?

Japans Military is about 250k I think, about 4x larger than Germany (or Canada) for that matter.

"defence force only" is just a name, since 1955 Japan and Germany has had a real military.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by T@T

Japans Military is about 250k I think, about 4x larger than Germany (or Canada) for that matter.

"defence force only" is just a name, since 1955 Japan and Germany has had a real military.

Just looked it up, Japan Defence forces number 230,300 reg force and 41,800 reserve. Germany's Bundeswehr (armed forces) numbers 183,828 reg force and 144,000 reserve. Canada by comparison has 68,250 reg force and 27,000 reserves.

[Byrns]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Just looked it up, Japan Defence forces number 230,300 reg force and 41,800 reserve. Germany's Bundeswehr (armed forces) numbers 183,828 reg force and 144,000 reserve. Canada by comparison has 68,250 reg force and 27,000 reserves.

Germany also has mandatory military service.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by Byrns

Germany also has mandatory military service.

Not anymore

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Can't find the article but read that dozens of "pro-Russian forces" were killed when a building they were occupying was firebombed. The other shoe may have just dropped. Would not surprise me at all if this gives Putin the evidence he needs to send in reg force Russians.

Google Odessa burnt. It is heavily played on Russian TV, as 41 men were burnt alive after barricaded inside the house. Russian media call it massacre and slaughter, and, as much, as I am immune to.Russian media, they don't seem to be too far off in this case. From what I know, Kiev opened a formal criminal investigation, particularly against police and firemen actions (or lack of thereof). They also declared a national grieving.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

"

What I don't get is why the hell Western news agencies and people are still calling these pro-Russian forces when the core of the leadership are clearly Russian special forces, either GRU or Spetznaz who are taking their orders from the Kremlin, with some turncoats sprinkled in? It continues giving Russia deniability for their actions. Even if they are local militias, these are serving Russian interests should be considered Russian irregular forces at this point.

This NY Times investigation claims that Russia's influence over those rebels is not quite as obvious, as it was thought to be. They appeared to be Ukrainians without any Russian master giving them any orders.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/05/04...om=global.home

[Itse]

I don't think was here yet. Not exactly news, but still.


Putin's 'Human Rights Council' Accidentally Posts Real Crimean Election Results

As you may recall, the official Crimean election results, as reported widely in the Western press, showed a 97 percent vote in favor of annexation with a turnout of 83 percent. No international observers were allowed. The pro-Russia election pressure would have raised the already weak vote in favor of annexation, of course.

Yesterday, however, according to a major Ukrainian news site, TSN.ua, the website of the President of Russia’s Council on Civil Society and Human Rights (shortened to President’s Human Rights Council) posted a report that was quickly taken down as if it were toxic radioactive waste. According to this purported report about the March referendum to annex Crimea, the turnout of Crimean voters was only 30 percent. And of these, only half voted for the referendum–meaning only 15 percent of Crimean citizens voted for annexation.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Pointman

This NY Times investigation claims that Russia's influence over those rebels is not quite as obvious, as it was thought to be. They appeared to be Ukrainians without any Russian master giving them any orders.

Yeah, I read a really good report on the topic actually (from a Finnish anarchist who has lived in Russia for a long time, so somebody who seriously has no skin in that game).

That said, it's clear that there is some Russian influence. But it's really more complicated than "Putin stirring up trouble for his own political gain."

Unfortunately it's in Finnish so no point in linking it, but I think basicly his personal take was this; it's complicated, and it's not even really just two sides.

The almost-sad side of the story was descriptions how some local Ukrainians have actually formed human barricades between the fighting sides, and how the polls pretty clearly state that neither the pro-Russians or the Kiev government has anything even close to a popular backing.

Things seem to be irrevocably sliding towards a civil war in East Ukraine. The Odessa burning was really just the apex of a cycle of violence, where pro-Russians and "nationalist" groups have been killing each other.

It has also become clear that the Kiev government is simply unable to mobilize the army to put an end to this. They simply don't have the support. If the Russians did clearly cross the border with troops, things might turn quickly though.

In any case, there's a chance Ukraine goes full Yugoslavia pretty soon.

[Shnabdabber]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/08/wo...e.html?hp&_r=0

Sounds like Russia is pulling its troops off the border.

“We were told constantly about concerns over our troops near the Ukrainian border,” Mr. Putin said. “We have pulled them back. Today they are not at the Ukrainian border but in places of regular exercises, at training grounds.”

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Itse

Yeah, I read a really good report on the topic actually (from a Finnish anarchist who has lived in Russia for a long time, so somebody who seriously has no skin in that game).

That said, it's clear that there is some Russian influence. But it's really more complicated than "Putin stirring up trouble for his own political gain."

Unfortunately it's in Finnish so no point in linking it, but I think basicly his personal take was this; it's complicated, and it's not even really just two sides.

The almost-sad side of the story was descriptions how some local Ukrainians have actually formed human barricades between the fighting sides, and how the polls pretty clearly state that neither the pro-Russians or the Kiev government has anything even close to a popular backing.

Things seem to be irrevocably sliding towards a civil war in East Ukraine. The Odessa burning was really just the apex of a cycle of violence, where pro-Russians and "nationalist" groups have been killing each other.

It has also become clear that the Kiev government is simply unable to mobilize the army to put an end to this. They simply don't have the support. If the Russians did clearly cross the border with troops, things might turn quickly though.

In any case, there's a chance Ukraine goes full Yugoslavia pretty soon.

Yeah, I was wondering why the Kiev government took so long to act, despite the Russians on the border. Looks like another mess in the works.