Ukraine Presidential Crackdown Violence. Russia Invades Ukraine

[PIMking]

look these POS's dont have a mask on

[Hemi-Cuda]

Looks like the fighting has heavily intensified with Ukraine forces trying to retake a city from the rebels. 2 helicopters shot down and 3 dead so far

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/#!/content/1.2629262/

[Shnabdabber]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Looks like the fighting has heavily intensified with Ukraine forces trying to retake a city from the rebels. 2 helicopters shot down and 3 dead so far

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/#!/content/1.2629262/

Putin now saying this act has destroyed any chance of diplomacy fixing the situation. As if it had a chance anyways.

"In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman said the offensive "effectively destroyed the last hope for the implementation of the Geneva agreements" that aimed to defuse the crisis."

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...05-02-01-53-29

At the start it looked like perhaps a east/west split of Ukraine would have been a worst case scenario. Not anymore.

I don't like how this situation looks at all. Russia/pro Russia Ukraine are not some Middle Eastern country that has no recourse against the west, and the west certainly cannot allow Russia to start gobbling up satellite countries. With China aligning itself with Russia, running joint navel exercises, and Russia amassed on Ukraines doorstep... I hope I'm wrong but I don't think this has even begun to get messy.

Putin was credited with de-escalating the Syria situation, and looked to be a fair mediator, and now he appears to be a rabid Nationalist. The US and western Europe are trying to cram the EU down Ukraines throat, and threats, verbal or shows of force, are becoming a daily occurrence from both sides.

Europe is a tinderbox right now and everyone involved seems to be drunk with gas and matches in hand.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by Shnabdabber

Putin now saying this act has destroyed any chance of diplomacy fixing the situation. As if it had a chance anyways.

"In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman said the offensive "effectively destroyed the last hope for the implementation of the Geneva agreements" that aimed to defuse the crisis."

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...05-02-01-53-29

At the start it looked like perhaps a east/west split of Ukraine would have been a worst case scenario. Not anymore.

I don't like how this situation looks at all. Russia/pro Russia Ukraine are not some Middle Eastern country that has no recourse against the west, and the west certainly cannot allow Russia to start gobbling up satellite countries. With China aligning itself with Russia, running joint navel exercises, and Russia amassed on Ukraines doorstep... I hope I'm wrong but I don't think this has even begun to get messy.

Putin was credited with de-escalating the Syria situation, and looked to be a fair mediator, and now he appears to be a rabid Nationalist. The US and western Europe are trying to cram the EU down Ukraines throat, and threats, verbal or shows of force, are becoming a daily occurrence from both sides.

Europe is a tinderbox right now and everyone involved seems to be drunk with gas and matches in hand.

I think worst case is the skirmishes intensify with pro-Russian militia being supplied more firepower from Moscow, resulting in a more war like situation. But I think we're at a good point now with Ukraining forces finally pushing back, which they are well entitled to do.

I can't see Russia and China turning this into a war, the world economy is too intertwined. China would immediately lose like 60% of its market and economy would crash without foreign cash flowing in.

[Shnabdabber]

Originally Posted by Ducay

I think worst case is the skirmishes intensify with pro-Russian militia being supplied more firepower from Moscow, resulting in a more war like situation. But I think we're at a good point now with Ukraining forces finally pushing back, which they are well entitled to do.

I can't see Russia and China turning this into a war, the world economy is too intertwined. China would immediately lose like 60% of its market and economy would crash without foreign cash flowing in.

I hope you are right. And Ukraine is absolutely entitled to protect their own, hopefully a show of force will diffuse the rebels in Ukraine but since the rebels are seemingly fed weapons and ideology from Russia, I have my doubts.

If there is one thing history teaches us, its that nothing jumpstarts a poor economy like a good old fashioned war. I dont think fear of economic backlash is enough to stop Russia, it certainly has not appeared to do so yet. Would a large world economy backlash be enough to dissuade Russia and China? I'm not so sure. China seems to be interested in moving off of the US petro dollar, has lended verbal support for Iran, and of course Russia.

Which has me wondering about the EU deal for Ukraine. Why would they want to join anyways, the EU is beyond broke, why would you want to take a big bite of that turd sandwich?

Interesting that Germany has yet to really push any sort of sanctions against Russia, I'm guessing their supply of gas from Russia is keeping them from doing so. Its not like Russia is the only country with something to lose here, which is why I don't think economic fallout is going to be the lynch pin of any action in Ukraine; peaceful or otherwise.

[CaptainCrunch]

I would expect that Russia will launch a punitive punishment strike of some kind, and then send in troops under the disguise of peacekeeping.

[jofillips]

far too simple to think a 'shanghai pact' (theoretical Russian/Chinese alliance) has been signed.
China is just thinking of itself, it's armed forces are nowhere near ready to take on anything - China can't even produce the required engine for its main jet, that has to come from Russia along with the rest of their equipment..

Has anyone been following the economists coverage of Ukraine? Superb assessment of Europes strategic issues/problems.
Seemingly just as important as fighter jets are the LPG ships just built (and arrived) to help the Baltic states reduce reliance on Putin.

[Shnabdabber]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I would expect that Russia will launch a punitive punishment strike of some kind, and then send in troops under the disguise of peacekeeping.

Works for the US in the Middle East!

[CaptainCrunch]

Yup the playbooks already been written.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I would expect that Russia will launch a punitive punishment strike of some kind, and then send in troops under the disguise of peacekeeping.

It's hard to not compare these events with the last big wars that happened on European soil.

Other than the lag between Ukraine's independence and the current Russian nationalism/unification efforts taking place, there are some similarities that I can see to the Balkan wars of the 1990s. Many people forget the build-up and relatively small (and many bloodless) skirmishes that took place for more than a year before total war broke out.

If you use this timeline of events, and if you believe that historical patterns repeat themselves, this would probably put us at about May 2, 1991. The skirmish that caused the JNA (in this comparison, the Russians) to do exactly what you are saying above. Within 3 months, all hell broke loose and cities were under siege. Within 5 months, armies on both sides were mobilized and fighting head on.

And if the same pattern were to hold true, then Russia won't stop until they actually have something to lose and a lot of innocent people on both sides (Russian and Ukrainian) who want nothing to do with any of this are going suffer. I imagine Russia would make pretty quick work of it though if it really did get to that point.

[Shnabdabber]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Yup the playbooks already been written.

How much of what is being played out in the Ukraine has, in your opinion, to do with US policy in Middle East countries?

I ask because it seems like the US could do whatever it wished in setting up puppeteer states in oil rich regions, but once they tried playing that game in Syria, Russia tossed their hat into the ring.

Do you think perhaps Russia feels threatened by what appears to be US expansion into Russia's oil rich neighbors to the south, being surrounded as it were?

I'm not defending Russia's actions, just trying to play a little devils advocate. Ukraine being aligned with the EU, the possibility of Russia losing their warm water navel ports, no buffer nations between western allied countries and Russia's borders?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Shnabdabber

How much of what is being played out in the Ukraine has, in your opinion, to do with US policy in Middle East countries?

I ask because it seems like the US could do whatever it wished in setting up puppeteer states in oil rich regions, but once they tried playing that game in Syria, Russia tossed their hat into the ring.

Do you think perhaps Russia feels threatened by what appears to be US expansion into Russia's oil rich neighbors to the south, being surrounded as it were?

I'm not defending Russia's actions, just trying to play a little devils advocate. Ukraine being aligned with the EU, the possibility of Russia losing their warm water navel ports, no buffer nations between western allied countries and Russia's borders?

I think it has something to do with Russia feeling threatened to the south, more to do with a feeling that NATO has to big of a and a expanding influence to the West, combined with Putin's desire to recreate the greater Russian empire, and Putin taking the people's focus away from internal corruption and economic issues.

This is really his rally to the flag moment as he "protects" innocent Russian civilians living abroad.

The Chinese negotiations is pretty cagy, because it moves his European energy exports to a not so important part of the economic picture.

When I said the playbook was written, right now Putin is building up a strong case of self interest in doing his "International Duty"

He also knows that he has a pretty weak west up against him and he is trying to see how far he can push this.

If he ends up with the Black Sea ports that he now owns. A fractured loose confederation of states in the rest of Ukraine that he can individually influence and manipulate into his sphere of influence, that ends up becoming his victory conditions.

[Shnabdabber]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I think it has something to do with Russia feeling threatened to the south, more to do with a feeling that NATO has to big of a and a expanding influence to the West, combined with Putin's desire to recreate the greater Russian empire, and Putin taking the people's focus away from internal corruption and economic issues.

This is really his rally to the flag moment as he "protects" innocent Russian civilians living abroad.

The Chinese negotiations is pretty cagy, because it moves his European energy exports to a not so important part of the economic picture.

Wonder how much of this has to do with your bolded point...

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2...appiness-Index

Would seem that this nationalist attitude has distracted Russians from internal issues, no doubt.

I'm not really sure what to make of this whole deal. Keep hearing from the west how actions in eastern Ukraine are undemocratic, meanwhile a former EU banker has been put into official power of the country by western interests with no election, Russia clearly is instigating unrest in Ukraine, westernization of nations on Russia's borders... it just stinks all around.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Shnabdabber

Wonder how much of this has to do with your bolded point...

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2...appiness-Index

Would seem that this nationalist attitude has distracted Russians from internal issues, no doubt.

I'm not really sure what to make of this whole deal. Keep hearing from the west how actions in eastern Ukraine are undemocratic, meanwhile a former EU banker has been put into official power of the country by western interests with no election, Russia clearly is instigating unrest in Ukraine, westernization of nations on Russia's borders... it just stinks all around.

It's a risky thing for a country with so many national minorities (20% of the people living in Russia do not identify as Russian and make up regional majorities in some large areas). There could easily come a point where national minorities start to feel threatened enough to act.

[NuclearPizzaMan]

Originally Posted by Shnabdabber

Wonder how much of this has to do with your bolded point...

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2...appiness-Index

Would seem that this nationalist attitude has distracted Russians from internal issues, no doubt.

I'm not really sure what to make of this whole deal. Keep hearing from the west how actions in eastern Ukraine are undemocratic, meanwhile a former EU banker has been put into official power of the country by western interests with no election, Russia clearly is instigating unrest in Ukraine, westernization of nations on Russia's borders... it just stinks all around.

Russia complaining about "westernization" of its neighbors always struck me as hilarious. Maybe if Russia were less aggressive, fewer bordering nations would be rushing to join a defensive alliance aimed against Russia.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's a risky thing for a country with so many national minorities (20% of the people living in Russia do not identify as Russian and make up regional majorities in some large areas). There could easily come a point where national minorities start to feel threatened enough to act.

Ask Chechnya and Dagestan how those regional uprisings are going

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by NuclearPizzaMan

Russia complaining about "westernization" of its neighbors always struck me as hilarious. Maybe if Russia were less aggressive, fewer bordering nations would be rushing to join a defensive alliance aimed against Russia.

Except that NATO has a share of the blame, they pushed pretty aggressively in what works out basically as a membership drive.

I know I wouldn't feel comfortable if I had a major nuclear armed military alliance on my borders scooping up nations.

Especially in Western Europe which is one of my primary markets.

I will admit that it seems like Putin is hyper aggressive, but he's pretty much trying to establish almost a warsaw pact style of buffer zone via force and not diplomacy.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Ask Chechnya and Dagestan how those regional uprisings are going

There is still a lot of stored energy in those areas. If Russia became involved in a prolonged conflict elsewhere, I would expect independence groups to take advantage of the situation.

They probably wouldn't win, but it would probably be enough to prevent Russia from being able to exert their power elsewhere and would cost them a lot.

[karl262]

Any predictions for the next 48 hours?

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by karl262

Any predictions for the next 48 hours?

The US will give Germany the green light to build up its military to a level not seen since the Third Reich. History has taught us that nothing scares the Russians more than a powerful German army.