Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[mustache ride]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

Not sure but i think the ability to bye second homes at less then 20% is there, its just that CMHC will not insure it. To me thats a good thing, the investor should hold the risk, not CMHC and the taxpayer.

CMHC doesn't lose money. It takes the risk because its profitable to do so. They would continue to insure homes under the previous lending rules if still allowed.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by Red

My commute is not underestimated. And don't most inner city slicks walk to work? That probably takes longer that my commute.

For many people, they also consider that it consolidates time you would otherwise need to take out of your day to exercise if you jog, walk, bike, etc. to work. The whole consolidation thing is what I hear the most. It's also a great incentive to do something you otherwise wouldn't.

[Bill Bumface]

^The other thing is if you're cheap like me.

Bike commuting probably costs me $100 in bike parts and clothing a year.

A bus pass is ~$1000/year.

Driving is a billion dollars.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

^The other thing is if you're cheap like me.

Bike commuting probably costs me $100 in bike parts and clothing a year.

A bus pass is ~$1000/year.

Driving is a billion dollars.

How about adding the premium of downtown living to the driving cost? Say I want an averate 1600 sq ft living space in downtown, what premium would it cost comparing to suburb? A gazillions dollars by my calculation.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by darklord700

How about adding the premium of downtown living to the driving cost? Say I want an averate 1600 sq ft living space in downtown, what premium would it cost comparing to suburb? A gazillions dollars by my calculation.

That's where the real question lies.

I like living in a neighborhood with a "main street" for many non-commuting reasons, so there are a lot of lifestyle intangibles there.

For pure financial reasons though, lets say you can ditch a car, or keep a car twice as long because you never use it. I'm going to make up some numbers from my personal experience:

Car payment/depreciation/maintenance: $250/mo (conservative, as tires, oil changes and repair costs go down as well)
Gas: $200/mo (I went from driving ~25,000km/year to ~8,000km)
Parking/Transit fees: $150/mo (so that park and riders don't complain about my numbers)

That's $600/mo total, bare minimum.

For a 25 year mortgage, that's $130,000 more you can spend on a place.

[albertGQ]

Lost in the whole 2nd home discussion is that CMHC is also terminating their BFS stated income program as of May 30

[Bill Bumface]

^ That will really screw all the "small business" contractors pulling dividends.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

For pure financial reasons though, lets say you can ditch a car, or keep a car twice as long because you never use it. I'm going to make up some numbers from my personal experience:

That's my point. No need to brag about how much time and money you saved by biking/walking to work without needing a car. It's the hip things to do nowadays but you pay for it.

A 1600 sq ft space can be had in the sub from 400k-500k and if you develop the basement you easily add another 700-800 sq ft of usuable space for very little money.

A 1600 sq ft space in downtown is astronomical as you are talking about penthouse kind of money. $2500 get you a condo with a small bedroom with no windows in the Waterfront tower. If that's the kind of life you want so that you can avoid sitting in a comfortable car for an extra 30 - 45 mintues a day, more power to you.

I wish I have Donald Trump kind of money and live in a Mahattan penthouse and walk to everything too but I dont'. So I am not dumb living in the sub and drive to work. And those are not smarter not having to drive to work either.

[Hugh Jahrmes]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

That's $600/mo total, bare minimum.

For a 25 year mortgage, that's $130,000 more you can spend on a place.

Do lenders look at it that way though? I thought you had a max percentage of income they will allow you to allocate regardless of your driving situation. I know when I got my place two years ago I had to get a 30 year and have since accelerated the payments at every possible chance, because initially they said the payments were too high for my income / 25 year.

Are there special concessions made if you don't drive?

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by darklord700

A 1600 sq ft space can be had in the sub from 400k-500k

A 1600 sq ft space in downtown is astronomical as you are talking about penthouse kind of money. $2500 get you a condo with a small bedroom with no windows in the Waterfront tower. If that's the kind of life you want so that you can avoid sitting in a comfortable car for an extra 30 - 45 mintues a day, more power to you.

Why jump to the extremes? Take the $500k, add the $130K I mentioned, and you can find a nicely renovated 1600sq ft house on a good sized lot within a 10 minute bike of downtown.

Originally Posted by Hugh Jahrmes

Do lenders look at it that way though?

No, but I still say you're nuts if you are borrowing at the top limit of what a lender will give you, but that is another story. Dropping out the transportation costs allowed me to push my personal limit closer toward the bank approved borrowing limit.

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

No, but I still say you're nuts if you are borrowing at the top limit of what a lender will give you, but that is another story. Dropping out the transportation costs allowed me to push my personal limit closer toward the bank approved borrowing limit.

I couldn't agree more. The bank will happily loan you enough money so that you can afford to do nothing but survive and make mortgage payments. The bank will often offer you close to double the house that makes financial sense.

[I-Hate-Hulse]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

Why jump to the extremes? Take the $500k, add the $130K I mentioned, and you can find a nicely renovated 1600sq ft house on a good sized lot within a 10 minute bike of downtown.

Quoted for emphasis. The number of people that don't understand how your monthly car payment could boost your housing budget by a big amount is staggering.

Several friends have dropped down to 1 car after moving closer into inner city from the burbs and being able to use Transit / walk / bike.

It's interesting to see how many of the "nouveau riche" and young professional types in Calgary are choosing to be inner city with it's proximity to work and frankly prestige. Growing up in the 80's it was all about being in an "Estate" area of a burb (ie Varsity, Bonavista). The new Burb developments seem to have a lot less "estate" type housing than they used to. (Excluding Aspen / Wentworth)

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

Why jump to the extremes? Take the $500k, add the $130K I mentioned, and you can find a nicely renovated 1600sq ft house on a good sized lot within a 10 minute bike of downtown.

Where do you find a 630K 1600 sq ft single house withint 10 mintues biking distance in Calgary?

For 620K, you get this within biking distance.

http://www.joeviani.com/1110-3-CALGARY-AB/C3609965/CREB

or for 600K, you get this outside of biking distance.

http://www.remax.ca/ab/calgary-real-...id92564334-lst

You always pay more for the biking distance, it's not free. Who wouldn't want to live in a fully renovated 1600 sq ft single house in Kensington? Because such house doesn't exist in Calgary today. So people live in Okotoks and Airdrie not because they are dumb but this is just the fact.

Also, can you bike your kids to school in -20C? If you have not kids or aren't even married, fine, you can live in a 800 sq ft apartment and bike to work. All the power to you.

But I and many people aren't willing to stuff four people and a dog in a 800 sq ft aprtment just so that I can bike/walk/crawl to work and school. And we are not dumb living in the subs.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by fotze

I thought you would be wrong, but you are right. Just searched 600-650k two+ bedroom single house and there is virtually nothing in that sq ft but tear downs.

That was my price range when shopping for a home and you certainly can not find a renovated, inner city home (attached or detached) for that kind of money. You might find the occasional home in Killarney, or Lakeview or Montgomery but those aren't really inner city.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

That was my price range when shopping for a home and you certainly can not find a renovated, inner city home (attached or detached) for that kind of money.

You're looking at about 900K to 1M like this one for the short commute privilege.

http://www.remax.ca/ab/calgary-real-...id91968942-lst

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by darklord700

You're looking at about 900K to 1M like this one for the short commute privilege.

http://www.remax.ca/ab/calgary-real-...id91968942-lst

$750 to $800 was the best that I could find for the type and size of home I wanted but I didn't want to pay that kind of money.

[Doodlebug]

Any thoughts on if/when this hot real estate market might cool down abit? How much higher could it go?

Amazed by how fast houses in the $1,000,000 - $1,500,000 segment are moving.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by fotze

But you will pay higher property taxes even if your house is way underassessed like yours.

The party is over. My assessment has gone up $170,000 since I moved in despite the house remaining unchanged.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by fotze

I thought you would be wrong, but you are right. Just searched 600-650k two+ bedroom single house and there is virtually nothing in that sq ft but tear downs.

This is the problem.

They do exist, they just sell rather instantly because they are few and far between.

My parents looked at a place in Crescent Heights that was about 1300sq ft and really, really nice inside. It was listed for $560k I think. I believe it sold the first weekend it was listed.

When I looked it took me 4 months.

My area is a bit cheaper due to the NE postal code, but there are a decent amount of 1000-1400sq ft renovated old houses, 3 schools in walking distance, and 2.0km from downtown. You just have to be super patient, and be ok with having smaller bedrooms, no closets etc. There are tradeoffs for sure. My friends in Panorama probably didn't spend much more than me but they have a mudroom the size of my kitchen and like 4 living rooms.

[nik-]

shiz be crazy :\